Abstract
Multiplayer Online Battle Arena (MOBA) game is currently one of the most popular genres of online games. In a MOBA game, players in a team compete against an opposing team. Typically, each MOBA game is a larger battle composed of a series of combat events. During a combat, the behavior of each player varies and the outcome of a game is determined both by the variation of each player’s behavior and by the interactions within each instance of combat. However, both the variation and interaction are highly dynamic and difficult to master, making it hard to predict the outcome of a game. In this paper, we present a player behavior model (called pb-model). The model allows us to predict the result of a game once we have collected enough data on the behaviour of the players. We first use convolution to extract the features of player behavior variation in each combat and model them as sequences by time. Then we use a recurrent neural network to process the interaction among these sequences. Finally, we combine these two structures in a network to predict the result of a game. Experiments performed on typical MOBA game dataset verify that our pb-model is effective and achieves as high as 87.85% prediction accuracy.
This work was supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under grant No. 1572332, the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities under grant No. 2016SCU04A22, and the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation under grant No. 2016T90850.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Castaneda, L.M., Sidhu, M.K., Azose, J.J., Swanson, T.: Game play differences by expertise level in dota 2, a complex multiplayer video game. IJGCMS 8(4), 1–24 (2016)
Nummenmaa, T.: Executable formal specifications in game development: design, validation and evolution. University of Tampere, Tampere University Press (2013)
Erickson, G.K.S., Buro, M.: Global state evaluation in StarCraft. In: Digital Entertainment (2014)
Rioult, F., Mtivier, J.P., Helleu, B., Scelles, N., Durand, C.: Mining tracks of competitive video games. AASRI Procedia 8, 82–87 (2014)
Pobiedina, N., Neidhardt, J., del Carmen Calatrava Moreno, M., Werthner, H.: Ranking factors of team success. In: Proceedings of 22nd International World Wide Web Conference, pp. 1185–1194 (2013)
Nuangjumnong, T.: The influences of online gaming on leadership development. Trans. Comput. Sci. 26, 142–160 (2016)
Drachen, A., et al.: Skill-based differences in spatio-temporal team behaviour in defence of the ancients 2 (dota 2). In: Proceedings of 2014 IEEE Games Media Entertainment, pp. 1–8 (2014)
Li, Q., et al.: A visual analytics approach for understanding reasons behind snowballing and comeback in MOBA games. IEEE Trans. Vis. Comput. Graph. 23(1), 211–220 (2017)
Suznjevic, M., Matijasevic, M., Konfic, J.: Application context based algorithm for player skill evaluation in MOBA games. In: Proceedings of 2015 International Workshop on Network and Systems Support for Games, pp. 1–6 (2015)
Dereszynski, E.W., Hostetler, J., Fern, A., Dietterich, T.G., Hoang, T., Udarbe, M.: Learning probabilistic behavior models in real-time strategy games. In: Digital Entertainment (2011)
Weber, B.G., Mateas, M.: A data mining approach to strategy prediction. In: Proceedings of the 2009 IEEE Symposium on Computational Intelligence and Games, pp. 140–147 (2009)
Synnaeve, G., Bessière, P.: A Bayesian model for opening prediction in RTS games with application to StarCraft. In: Proceedings of 2011 IEEE Conference on Computational Intelligence and Games, pp. 281–288 (2011)
Wang, K., Shang, W.: Outcome prediction of DOTA2 based on Navïe Bayes classifier. In: Proceedings of 16th IEEE/ACIS International Conference on Computer and Information Science, pp. 591–593 (2017)
Cleghern, Z., Lahiri, S., Özaltin, O.Y., Roberts, D.L.: Predicting future states in DOTA 2 using value-split models of time series attribute data. In: Proceedings of the International Conference on the Foundations of Digital Games, pp. 5:1–5:10 (2017)
Yang, P., Harrison, B.E., Roberts, D.L.: Identifying patterns in combat that are predictive of success in MOBA games. In: Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on the Foundations of Digital Games (2014)
Park, Y.J., Kim, H.S., Kim, D., Lee, H., Kim, S.B., Kang, P.: A deep learning-based sports player evaluation model based on game statistics and news articles. Knowl.-Based Syst. 138, 15–26 (2017)
Leibfried, F., Kushman, N., Hofmann, K.: A deep learning approach for joint video frame and reward prediction in Atari games. CoRR abs/1611.07078 (2016)
Oh, J., Guo, X., Lee, H., Lewis, R.L., Singh, S.P.: Action-conditional video prediction using deep networks in Atari games. In: Proceedings of Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems 2015, pp. 2863–2871 (2015)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2018 Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Lan, X., Duan, L., Chen, W., Qin, R., Nummenmaa, T., Nummenmaa, J. (2018). A Player Behavior Model for Predicting Win-Loss Outcome in MOBA Games. In: Gan, G., Li, B., Li, X., Wang, S. (eds) Advanced Data Mining and Applications. ADMA 2018. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 11323. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05090-0_41
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05090-0_41
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-05089-4
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-05090-0
eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)