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Modeling Demographic Processes In Marked Populations pp 173–197Cite as

Estimating Latent Time of Maturation and Survival Costs of Reproduction in Continuous Time from Capture–Recapture Data

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Part of the book series: Environmental and Ecological Statistics ((ENES,volume 3))

Abstract

In many species, age or time of maturation and survival costs of reproduction may vary substantially within and among populations. We present a capture-mark-recapture model to estimate the latent individual trait distribution of time of maturation (or other irreversible transitions) as well as survival differences associated with the two states (representing costs of reproduction). Maturation can take place at any point in continuous time, and mortality hazard rates for each reproductive state may vary according to continuous functions over time. Although we explicitly model individual heterogeneity in age/time of maturation, we make the simplifying assumption that death hazard rates do not vary among individuals within groups of animals. However, the estimates of the maturation distribution are fairly robust against individual heterogeneity in survival as long as there is no individual level correlation between mortality hazards and latent time of maturation. We apply the model to biweekly capture–recapture data of overwintering field voles (Microtus agrestis) in cyclically fluctuating populations to estimate time of maturation and survival costs of reproduction. Results show that onset of seasonal reproduction is particularly late and survival costs of reproduction are particularly large in declining populations.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biology (now at Program for Integrative Biology), University of Oslo, P. O. Box 1066, Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, Norway

    Torbjørn Ergon

Authors
  1. Torbjørn Ergon
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  2. Nigel G. Yoccoz
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  3. James D. Nichols
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Torbjørn Ergon .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Konrad-Zuse Strasse 1, D18057 Rostock, Germany

    David L Thomson

  2. Netherlands Institute of Ecology Centre for Terrestrial Ecology, Boterhoeksestraat 48, Postbus 40, 6666 ZG Heteren, Netherlands

    David L Thomson

  3. School of Biological Sciences, University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong

    David L Thomson

  4. Department of Natural Resources, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA

    Evan G. Cooch

  5. D.B. Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA

    Michael J. Conroy

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Ergon, T., Yoccoz, N.G., Nichols, J.D. (2009). Estimating Latent Time of Maturation and Survival Costs of Reproduction in Continuous Time from Capture–Recapture Data. In: Thomson, D.L., Cooch, E.G., Conroy, M.J. (eds) Modeling Demographic Processes In Marked Populations. Environmental and Ecological Statistics, vol 3. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-78151-8_8

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