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  • © 2022

Uncertainty Deconstructed

A Guidebook for Decision Support Practitioners

  • Provides a process toolkit for practitioners

  • Reveals what uncertainty really is and how the worst risks associated with uncertainty can be mitigated

  • Introduces methods, tools and techniques to enhance the ability to deal with uncertainty

Part of the book series: Science, Technology and Innovation Studies (STAIS)

Buying options

Hardcover Book USD 89.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
This title has not yet been released. You will be able to pre-order it soon.

About this book

This book argues that uncertainty is not really uncertainty at all but just demonstrates a lack of vision and willingness to think about the unthinkable – good and bad. The task of accepting that uncertainty is about exploring the possible, rather than the impossible has to be taken on board by strategists, policy developers, and political leaders, if we are to meet the challenges that an ever changing world is throwing at us. The term “unknown – unknowns” is ubiquitous, albeit the vast majority of future uncertain events do not fall into this category. However, it has been used to absolve decision makers from criticism post-event, whereas poor foresight is the prime culprit and that most future uncertainties are “known-unknowns” or “inevitable surprises”. 

This re-positioning of uncertainties can help mitigate the impact of such risks through better foresight aware contingency planning. The enemy is not uncertainty itself but our lack of imagination when trying to visualize the future – we need to transform our behaviour. To better understand uncertainty we have to deconstruct it and get to grips with its component parts. Three main questions are posed and practical approaches presented: What are the main structural components that make up the conditions under which uncertainty operates? What scenario lenses can be used when exploring uncertainty? What behavioural factors do we need to consider when analysing the human responses to uncertainty? Practitioners, having to deal with making better decisions under uncertainty, will find the book a useful guide.


Keywords

  • Risk and Uncertainty
  • Reactive Scenarios
  • Explorative Scenarios
  • Behavioural Factors
  • Strategic Foresight
  • Process Toolkit

Authors and Affiliations

  • Croydon, United Kingdom

    Bruce Garvey

  • London, United Kingdom

    Dowshan Humzah

  • Ascot, United Kingdom

    Storm Le Roux

About the authors

Bruce Garvey advises and consults organisations facing high levels of uncertainty. He addresses decision behaviour pertaining to technological foresight, creativity and innovation, futures, scenario planning, and systems uncertainties, based on his research at  Imperial College London, (UK). He has 40 years’ experience within the commercial arena, in staff and operational posts in the UK, Europe and the Middle East. 

Dowshan Humzah is an independent director and strategic advisor. He has delivered transformative business growth, industry firsts and digital innovation, having held executive roles with RSA Insurance, Virgin Media, Orange, P&G and four start-ups. As a non-executive, he focuses on board composition and cognitive diversity. His directorships include Board Apprentice Global, Gresham College and Overcoming MS.

Storm Le Roux is principal of SCNiiC. He led the Aerospace and Climate Neutrality Initiative, resulting in the launch in 2018 of SCNiiC – Sustainability Climate Neutrality Impact Investment Consultancy – a specialist advisor on net zero finance, technology and decision-making under deep uncertainty. He graduated in science and engineering from the University of Stellenbosch. 

Bibliographic Information

Buying options

Hardcover Book USD 89.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
This title has not yet been released. You will be able to pre-order it soon.