Three Revolutions

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-xvi

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2. Will the Transportation Revolutions Improve Our Lives—or Make Them Worse?

   • Daniel Sperling, Susan Pike, Robin Chase

   Pages 1-20

3. Electric Vehicles: Approaching the Tipping Point

   • Daniel Sperling

   Pages 21-54

4. Shared Mobility: The Potential of Ridehailing and Pooling

   • Susan Shaheen

   Pages 55-76

5. Vehicle Automation: Our Best Shot at a Transportation Do-Over?

   • Daniel Sperling, Ellen van der Meer, Susan Pike

   Pages 77-108

6. Upgrading Transit for the Twenty-First Century

   • Steven E. Polzin, Daniel Sperling

   Pages 109-129

7. Bridging the Gap between Mobility Haves and Have-Nots

   • Anne Brown, Brian D. Taylor

   Pages 131-150

8. Remaking the Auto Industry

   • Levi Tillemann

   Pages 151-166

9. The Dark Horse: Will China Win the Electric, Automated, Shared Mobility Race?

   • Michael J. Dunne

   Pages 167-187

10. Back Matter

    Pages 297-308

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For the first time in half a century, real transformative innovations are coming to our world of passenger transportation. The convergence of new shared mobility services with automated and electric vehicles promises to significantly reshape our lives and communities for the better—or for the worse.
The dream scenario could bring huge public and private benefits, including more transportation choices, greater affordability and accessibility, and healthier, more livable cities, along with reduced greenhouse gas emissions. The nightmare scenario could bring more urban sprawl, energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, and unhealthy cities and individuals.

In Three Revolutions, transportation expert Dan Sperling, along with seven other leaders in the field, share research–based insights on potential public benefits and impacts of the three transportation revolutions. They describe innovative ideas and partnerships, and explore the role government policy can play in steering the new transportation paradigm toward the public interest—toward our dream scenario of social equity, environmental sustainability, and urban livability.
Many factors will influence these revolutions—including the willingness of travelers to share rides and eschew car ownership; continuing reductions in battery, fuel cell, and automation costs; and the adaptiveness of companies. But one of the most important factors is policy.
Three Revolutions offers policy recommendations and provides insight and knowledge that could lead to wiser choices by all. With this book, Sperling and his collaborators hope to steer these revolutions toward the public interest and a better quality of life for everyone.

• Transportation Revolutions
• Electric Vehicles
• Shared Mobility
• Vehicle Automation
• Upgrading Transit
• Auto Industry
• landscape/regional and urban planning
• climate change

• University of California, Davis, Davis, USA

  Daniel Sperling

Dr. Daniel Sperling is the Blue Planet Prize Distinguished Professor of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science and Policy and founding director of the Institute of Transportation Studies (ITS–Davis) at the University of California, Davis. He has held the transportation seat on the California Air Resources Board since 2007 (appointed by Governors Arnold Schwarzenegger and Jerry Brown) and served as Chair of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academies in 2015-16. Among his many prizes are the 2013 Blue Planet Prize from the Asahi Glass Foundation for being "a pioneer in opening up new fields of study to create more efficient, low-carbon, and environmentally beneficial transportation systems." He served twice as lead author for the IPCC (sharing the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize), has testified 7 times to the U.S. Congress, and provided 40 keynote presentations in the past five years. He has authored or coauthored over 250 technical papers and 12 books; is widely cited in leading newspapers; has been interviewed many times on NPR, including Science Friday, Talk of the Nation, and Fresh Air; and in 2009 was featured on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart.