The Collapse of North Korea

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-xix

   PDF

2. Introduction

   • Tara O

   Pages 1-8

3. The Unification Scenarios and Cost

   • Tara O

   Pages 9-24

4. Thinking About Collapse: Indicators and Triggers

   • Tara O

   Pages 25-44

5. Geopolitical Landscape and Regional Bilateral Issues

   • Tara O

   Pages 45-92

6. Preparing for and Responding to Collapse

   • Tara O

   Pages 93-122

7. Summary

   • Tara O

   Pages 123-134

8. Correction to: The Collapse of North Korea

   • Tara O

   Pages C1-C1

9. Back Matter

   Pages 135-168

   PDF

This book highlights the increasing risk of North Korea’s collapse and considers the necessary actions that would enable the neighboring powers to prepare for such an event. North Korea's deteriorating economic conditions, its reliance on external assistance, and the degree of information penetration all provide hints of its collapse. Whether the chance is high or low, the collapse of North Korea and subsequent Korean unification would drastically alter the geostrategic landscape and profoundly affect the national interests of the regional powers—South Korea, China, the United States, Japan, and Russia. The most desirable scenario for a post-unification Korean Peninsula is a successfully developed and integrated non-nuclear Korea acting as a responsible regional and world stakeholder. This work considers the major challenges expected after a North Korean collapse, including the control of nuclear weapons, disorder in the immediate aftermath of collapse, and economic and social integration. The author then outlines how regional powers need to prepare to handle these challenges in order to minimize suffering and to set the foundation for long-term development and regional stability.

• Korean unification
• South Korea
• North Korean economy
• USA
• China
• Japan
• Russia
• Nuclear weapons
• Indicators of collapse
• Triggers of collapse
• Bilateral relations
• mass migration
• external assistance
• Alter
• desegregation
• economy
• geopolitics
• Integration
• Korea
• migration
• Nation
• weapons
• work

“The result is a well-researched, lucid and, for the most part, objective analysis of the steps necessary to prevent a collapsed North Korea from wreaking havoc in Northeast Asia and beyond. … will be of interest to Korea and East Asia specialists, whether from academia or from policymaking. It is recommended for those who want a broad and comprehensive overview of the challenges that Korean reunification would—or will, following from the author’s train of thought—entail.” (Ramon Pacheco Pardo, Pacific Affairs, pacificaffairs.ubc.ca, July, 2017)

• Institute for Corean-American Studies, Washington, DC, USA

  Tara O

Tara O is an Adjunct Fellow at the Pacific Forum, Center for Strategic and International Studies, USA, and a retired U.S. Air Force officer. She worked in Asia, Africa, Europe, and the U.S. Her assignments included the Pentagon and the U.S.-Republic of Korea Combined Forces Command. She holds degrees from the University of Texas-Austin (Ph.D.), Princeton University (MPA), and University of California-Davis (BA).