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© 2016

Global Growth and Financial Spillovers and the South African Macro-economy

Book

Table of contents

  1. Front Matter
    Pages i-xxi
  2. Introduction

    1. Mthuli Ncube, Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou
      Pages 1-9
  3. Growth Spillover Effects

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 11-11
    2. Mthuli Ncube, Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou
      Pages 13-32
    3. Mthuli Ncube, Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou
      Pages 33-48
  4. Spillovers of Foreign Financial Shocks

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 49-49
    2. Mthuli Ncube, Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou
      Pages 51-66
    3. Mthuli Ncube, Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou
      Pages 67-80
  5. Capital Flow Effects and the Trade Balance

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 81-81
    2. Mthuli Ncube, Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou
      Pages 83-100
    3. Mthuli Ncube, Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou
      Pages 101-115
    4. Mthuli Ncube, Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou
      Pages 116-129
  6. Equity Markets Interdependence and Financial Stress

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 131-131
    2. Mthuli Ncube, Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou
      Pages 133-149
    3. Mthuli Ncube, Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou
      Pages 150-160
    4. Mthuli Ncube, Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou
      Pages 161-166
  7. Back Matter
    Pages 167-187

About this book

Introduction

To what extent is South Africa affected by G8 economies and BRIC growth shocks? This book identifies channels that amplify these shock effects, the relevance of third country transmission effects and the effects of the first and second rounds of US quantitative easing. The changing reactions of South African variables over time to financial shocks emanating from the US and selected countries in the Euro area, is presented. The book quantifies the effects of capital flow shocks, determines the counterfactuals of asset prices and economic growth variables, and compares the contribution of capital flows and domestic macro factors on asset prices. The effects of the exchange rate depreciation are contrasted to the decline in investment as key drivers of the trade balance. Stock market interdependence is determined amongst South African, Indian and Brazilian equities. The contributions of stock price returns and volatility on South African economic growth are contrasted. The authors construct a financial stress index for South Africa and determine how it amplifies shocks.

Keywords

Growth spillovers South Africa Financial stress index Capital flows Financial shock US monetary policy Economic growth Bond yields Bond Yields China economic growth economics growth Inflation interest rates Investment macroeconomics monetary policy Portfolio shock Volatility

Authors and affiliations

  1. 1.Blavatnik School of GovernmentUniversity of OxfordUK
  2. 2.South African Reserve BankSouth Africa
  3. 3.South African Reserve BankSouth Africa
  4. 4.University of the WitwatersrandSouth Africa

About the authors

Eliphas Ndou holds a Doctorate Degree in Economics from the University of the Witwatersrand and lecture at this university international finance and currently lectures. Currently works at South African Reserve Bank as an economist.

Nombulelo Gumata holds a Masters Degree in Economics from the University of Johannesburg. She is an economist at the Reserve Bank of South Africa. She also lectures and tutors on part time basis at the Centre for Education in Economics and Finance Africa (CEEF.Africa). CEEF.Africa supports students who study with the University of London for degrees and diplomas in Economics and Finance. Students register with the University of London's distance learning programme and receive local comprehensive lecturing and tutoring and CEEF Africa.
 
Mthuli Ncube is Senior Research Fellow at University of Oxford, Blavatnik School of Government, UK. Between 2010 and 2014, he was Chief Economist and Vice President at the African Development Bank. He has also been Dean and Professor at Wits Business School, and Dean of Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, at the University of the Witwatersrand (Wits). He was a Lecturer in Finance at the London School of Economics, UK. He has published widely in the area of finance and economics. He also has extensive experience as an investment banker and regulator. He is Chairman of the African Economic Research Consortium. He holds a PhD in Economics (Mathematical Finance) from University of Cambridge, UK.

Bibliographic information