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The Management of Uncertainty: Approaches, Methods and Applications

  • Book
  • © 1986

Overview

Editors:
  1. Luc Wilkin

    1. Brussels Free University, Brussels, Belgium

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Part of the book series: NATO Science Series D: (ASID, volume 32)

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Table of contents (14 chapters)

  1. Front Matter

    Pages I-VIII
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  2. Introductory Essay

    1. Introductory Essay

      • Luc Wilkin
      Pages 1-11

  3. The Strategic Choice Approach

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 12-13
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    2. The Strategic Choice Approach to Managing Uncertainty

      • Alan Sutton, Allen Hickling, John Friend
      Pages 14-52

    3. A Perspective on Robustness

      • Martin C. J. Elton
      Pages 53-58

    4. Reflections on Uncertainty in Strategic Choice

      • John Friend
      Pages 59-72

  4. Multicriteria Decision Aids

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 73-74
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    2. Multicriteria Decision Aid for the Management of Uncertainty

      • Gilles R. D’Avignon, Heinz-Michael Winkels
      Pages 75-135

  5. Metagame and Hypergame

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 136-137
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    2. Modelling Political Uncertainty Using the Improved Metagame Analysis Algorithm

      • Keith W. Hipel, Niall M. Fraser
      Pages 138-157

    3. Hypergame Theory and Methodology: the Current “State of the Art”

      • Peter G. Bennett, Robin R. Bussel
      Pages 158-181

  6. Related Topics

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 182-183
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    2. Uncertainty in the Negotiation and Mediation of Environmental Disputes

      • Michael Wheeler
      Pages 184-199

    3. Risk and Uncertainty in Public and Occupational Health

      • Paolo F. Ricci, Mario C. Cirillo
      Pages 200-219

    4. Probability and Uncertainty

      • Monika-Isis Ksiensik, Pieter Terlouw
      Pages 220-238

  7. Interrelationships

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 239-240
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    2. A Perceptual-Behavioral Perspective of Decision-Making under Uncertainty

      • Nicholas N. Patricios
      Pages 241-251

    3. Uncertainty, Complexity and Decision-Making Processes

      • Jose M. Viegas
      Pages 252-263

    4. Conflict Analysis Techniques in Strategic Choice

      • Niall M. Fraser, Keith W. Hipel
      Pages 264-274

    5. Conflict and Strategic Choice

      • Peter G. Bennett, Robin R. Bussel
      Pages 275-282
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Keywords

About this book

For thirty years, the literature on decision-making and planning has been divided into two camps : work premised on rational models of choice and work designed to discredit such models. The sustained critic of fully rational decision-making theories has al­ ready a long history and a constant message to deliver : in practice, consequential decision-making hardly fulfills the canons of perfect rationality. There is also evidence that decision-making and planning are not unitary processes. Although the concept of "decision-making" connotes the idea of a single process, making a single choice involves a complex of processing tasks : structuring the problem, finding alternatives worth considering, deciding what information is relevant, assessing various consequences, and a variety of others. The aim of this volume is to bring together and try to inter­ relate some of the concepts and relevant knowledge from various disciplines concerned with one important aspect of this complex process : the management of uncertainty. It is hardly necessary to reiterate the case made by numerous authors about our changing and increasingly uncertain world. Suffice it to say here that it is uncertainty about the future, and in many cases about the past and the present also, which makes decision-making and planning so difficul t. The management of uncertainty may be defined as the way in which uncertainty is treated and processed in decision-making.

Editors and Affiliations

  • Brussels Free University, Brussels, Belgium

    Luc Wilkin

Bibliographic Information

  • Book Title: The Management of Uncertainty: Approaches, Methods and Applications

  • Editors: Luc Wilkin

  • Series Title: NATO Science Series D:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-4458-9

  • Publisher: Springer Dordrecht

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

  • Copyright Information: Martinus Nijhoff Publishers, Dordrecht 1986

  • Hardcover ISBN: 978-90-247-3387-3Due: 31 August 1986

  • Softcover ISBN: 978-94-010-8484-0Published: 13 October 2011

  • eBook ISBN: 978-94-009-4458-9Published: 06 December 2012

  • Series ISSN: 0258-123X

  • Edition Number: 1

  • Number of Pages: VIII, 285

  • Topics: Operations Research/Decision Theory

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