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  • © 2011

Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View

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  • A lens to look through into the future of international migration in Europe A migration forecaster’s toolkit, applying expert knowledge to account for uncertainty An honest account of the limits of predictability of international migration Hints for

  • population-related decision making under uncertainty

Part of the book series: The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis (PSDE, volume 24)

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  • ISBN: 978-90-481-8897-0
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Table of contents (12 chapters)

  1. Front Matter

    Pages i-xxiii
  2. Introduction

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 1-1
    2. Introduction and Background

      • Jakub Bijak
      Pages 3-13
    3. Preliminaries

      • Jakub Bijak
      Pages 15-34
  3. Explaining and Forecasting Migration

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 35-35
  4. Examples of Bayesian Migration Predictions

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 89-89
    2. Bayesian Computing in Practice

      • Jakub Bijak
      Pages 175-196
  5. Perspectives of Forecast Makers and Users

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 197-197
  6. Conclusion

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 235-235
  7. Back Matter

    Pages 251-308

About this book

International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation.   In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.   “This is a great book that represents a step-change in the forecasting of international migration. Jakub Bijak advocates for the use of Bayesian statistics - a natural way to combine subjective prior information with statistical data. The Bayesian framework provides also a natural way to further develop the migration forecasting process that is ultimately aimed at accounting for and reducing the different uncertainties, and that involves cognitive agents with different expertise - migration experts, population forecasters and forecast users - in order to accomplish that aim. The book is a must for everyone interested knowing how migration, especially international, will evolve and respond to changing conditions, events and policies.” <Prof. Frans Willekens, Director of the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), The Hague, and Professor of Population Studies, University of Groningen

Keywords

  • Bayesian
  • Demography
  • Gibbs sampling
  • Markov chain Monte Carlo
  • Migration
  • Migration forecasting
  • Migration prediction
  • Model-based forecasting
  • Population
  • R language
  • Social Sciences
  • VAR models
  • WinBUGS

Reviews

From the reviews:

“Forecasters know (or at least should know) that their forecasts never come true and that the magnitude of error increases with the forecast's horizon. Jakub Bijak proposes an elegant solution to this problem, namely an application of Bayesian statistics to migration forecasting. Methodology he proposes allows for quantification of forecast uncertainty, giving the forecast's user an idea of how accurate the forecast is. As in the past a transition form single-regional to multi-regional forecasts constituted a milestone in demographic forecasting, the methodology proposed by Bijak and advocated earlier by other demographers will constitute a similar milestone in the future.” Dr Marek Kupiszewski, Director of the Central European Forum for Migration and Population Research in Warsaw

“The book is structured in five parts comprising twelve chapters. … The book is well-addressed to both policy- and theory-oriented readers, demographers and in particular statistical demographers, as well as to postgraduate students of demography and migration.” (Christina Diakaki, Zentralblatt MATH, Vol. 1209, 2011)

Authors and Affiliations

  • , School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton, Highfield, United Kingdom

    Jakub Bijak

Bibliographic Information

Buying options

eBook
USD 129.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • ISBN: 978-90-481-8897-0
  • Instant PDF download
  • Readable on all devices
  • Own it forever
  • Exclusive offer for individuals only
  • Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout
Softcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
Hardcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)