Table of contents

  1. Front Matter
    Pages i-xvii
  2. Basic Principles and the Problem of Climate Forecasts

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 1-1
    2. Andrew Gettelman, Richard B. Rood
      Pages 3-12 Open Access
    3. Andrew Gettelman, Richard B. Rood
      Pages 13-22 Open Access
    4. Andrew Gettelman, Richard B. Rood
      Pages 23-35 Open Access
    5. Andrew Gettelman, Richard B. Rood
      Pages 37-58 Open Access
  3. Model Mechanics

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 59-59
    2. Andrew Gettelman, Richard B. Rood
      Pages 61-85 Open Access
    3. Andrew Gettelman, Richard B. Rood
      Pages 87-108 Open Access
    4. Andrew Gettelman, Richard B. Rood
      Pages 109-137 Open Access
    5. Andrew Gettelman, Richard B. Rood
      Pages 139-158 Open Access
  4. Using Models

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 159-159
    2. Andrew Gettelman, Richard B. Rood
      Pages 161-176 Open Access
    3. Andrew Gettelman, Richard B. Rood
      Pages 177-197 Open Access
    4. Andrew Gettelman, Richard B. Rood
      Pages 199-220 Open Access
    5. Andrew Gettelman, Richard B. Rood
      Pages 221-236 Open Access
    6. Andrew Gettelman, Richard B. Rood
      Pages 237-253 Open Access
  5. Back Matter
    Pages 255-274

About this book

Introduction

This book demystifies the models we use to simulate present and future climates, allowing readers to better understand how to use climate model results. In order to predict the future trajectory of the Earth’s climate, climate-system simulation models are necessary. When and how do we trust climate model predictions? The book offers a framework for answering this question. It provides readers with a basic primer on climate and climate change, and offers non-technical explanations for how climate models are constructed, why they are uncertain, and what level of confidence we should place in them. It presents current results and the key uncertainties concerning them. Uncertainty is not a weakness but understanding uncertainty is a strength and a key part of using any model, including climate models. Case studies of how climate model output has been used and how it might be used in the future are provided. The ultimate goal of this book is to promote a better understanding of the structure and uncertainties of climate models among users, including scientists, engineers and policymakers.

Keywords

Uncertainties In Climate Models Scenario Uncertainty Model Perfomance Confidence Of Climate Predictions Coupled Climate System Model General Circulation Models Weather Models Model Evaluation And Validation Greenhouse Gases Energy Flows Climate Forcing Keeling Curve Finite Element Model Anthropogenic Climate Change Tropical Cyclones Ozone Assessment Sea-Ice Models Human System Models Type Of Climate Models Prediction Of Extreme Events

Authors and affiliations

  • Andrew Gettelman
    • 1
  • Richard B. Rood
    • 2
  1. 1.Nat'l Cntr For Atmospheric ResearchBoulderUSA
  2. 2.Climate and Space Sciences and EngineeriUniversity of MichiganAnn ArborUSA

Bibliographic information

  • DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-48959-8
  • Copyright Information The Editor(s) (if applicable) and the Author(s) 2016
  • Publisher Name Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
  • eBook Packages Earth and Environmental Science
  • Print ISBN 978-3-662-48957-4
  • Online ISBN 978-3-662-48959-8
  • Series Print ISSN 2364-5830
  • Series Online ISSN 2364-5849
  • About this book