Predictive Behavior

An Experimental Study

  • Gunnar Brennscheidt

Part of the Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems book series (LNE, volume 403)

Table of contents

  1. Front Matter
    Pages I-VI
  2. Gunnar Brennscheidt
    Pages 1-37
  3. Gunnar Brennscheidt
    Pages 39-44
  4. Gunnar Brennscheidt
    Pages 45-58
  5. Gunnar Brennscheidt
    Pages 59-113
  6. Gunnar Brennscheidt
    Pages 115-143
  7. Gunnar Brennscheidt
    Pages 145-196
  8. Gunnar Brennscheidt
    Pages 197-200
  9. Gunnar Brennscheidt
    Pages 201-223
  10. Gunnar Brennscheidt
    Pages 225-227
  11. Back Matter
    Pages 229-234

About this book

Introduction

This book describes a series of laboratory experiments (with a total of 167 independent subjects) on forecasting behavior. In all experiments, the time series to be forecasted was generated by an abstract econometric model involving two or three artificial exogenous variables. This designprovides an optimal background for rational expectations and least-squares learning. As expected, these hypotheses do not explain observed forecasting behavior satisfactorily. Some phenomena related to this lack of rationality are studied: Concentration on changes rather than levels,underestimation of changes and overvaluation of volatile exogenous variables. Some learning behavior is observed. Finally, some aspects of individual forecasts such as prominence of "round" number, dispersion, etc.,are studied.

Keywords

Erwartungsbildung Expectation Formation Experimentelle Wirtschaftsforschung Rationality of Expectations Rationalität der Erwartungen economics experimental economics forecasting regression time series

Authors and affiliations

  • Gunnar Brennscheidt
    • 1
  1. 1.Institut für Ökonometrie und Operations ResearchUniversität BonnBonnGermany

Bibliographic information

  • DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-95718-5
  • Copyright Information Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1993
  • Publisher Name Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
  • eBook Packages Springer Book Archive
  • Print ISBN 978-3-540-57311-1
  • Online ISBN 978-3-642-95718-5
  • Series Print ISSN 0075-8442
  • About this book