Stochastic Processes in Demography and Their Computer Implementation

1. Front Matter

   Pages I-XVII

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2. Fecundability

   • Charles J. Mode

   Pages 1-34

3. Human Survivorship

   • Charles J. Mode

   Pages 35-75

4. Theories of Competing Risks and Multiple Decrement Life Tables

   • Charles J. Mode

   Pages 76-111

5. Models of Maternity Histories and Age-Specific Birth Rates

   • Charles J. Mode

   Pages 112-176

6. A Computer Software Design Implementing Models of Maternity Histories

   • Charles J. Mode

   Pages 177-242

7. Age-Dependent Models of Maternity Histories Based on Data Analyses

   • Charles J. Mode

   Pages 243-308

8. Population Projection Methodology Based on Stochastic Population Processes

   • Charles J. Mode

   Pages 309-384

9. Back Matter

   Pages 385-389

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According to a recent report of the United States Census Bureau, world population as of June 30, 1983, was estimated at about 4. 7 billion people; of this total, an estimated 82 million had been added in the previous year. World population in 1950 was estimated at about 2. 5 billion; consequently, if 82 million poeple are added to the world population in each of the coming four years, population size will be double that of 1950. Another way of viewing the yearly increase in world population is to compare it to 234 million, the estimated current population of the United States. If the excess of births over deaths continues, a group of young people equivalent to the population of the United States will be added to the world population about every 2. 85 years. Although the rate of increase in world population has slowed since the midsixties, it seems likely that large numbers of infants will be added to the population each year for the foreseeable future. A large current world population together with a high likelihood of sub­ stantial increments in size every year has prompted public and scholarly recognition of population as a practical problem. Tangible evidence in the public domain that population is being increasingly viewed as a problem is provided by the fact that many governments around the world either have or plan to implement policies regarding population. Evidence of scholarly concern is provided by an increasing flow of publications dealing with population.

• Census
• demography
• stochastic processes

• Department of Mathematics and Computer Science College of Science, Drexel University, Philadelphia, USA

  Charles J. Mode

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