Managing Safety of Heterogeneous Systems

Decisions under Uncertainties and Risks

  • Yuri Ermoliev
  • Marek Makowski
  • Kurt Marti
Part of the Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems book series (LNE, volume 658)

Table of contents

  1. Front Matter
    Pages i-xxiii
  2. Yuri Ermoliev, Marek Makowski, Kurt Marti
    Pages 1-16
  3. Decisions under Systemic Risk and Uncertainties

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 17-17
    2. Yuri Ermoliev, Detlof von Winterfeldt
      Pages 19-49
  4. Modeling Uncertainties of Heterogeneous Systems

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 107-107
    2. Andrei Gritsevskyi, Yuri Ermoliev
      Pages 109-136
    3. Alexei A. Gaivoronski, Adrian Werner
      Pages 137-167
    4. Oleksandra Borodina, Elena Borodina, Tatiana Ermolieva, Yuri Ermoliev, Günther Fischer, Marek Makowski et al.
      Pages 169-185
  5. Uncertainty and Optimization

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 203-203
    2. Yury Evtushenko, Mikhail Posypkin
      Pages 205-218
    3. Masahiro Inuiguchi
      Pages 219-239
    4. Yasunori Endo, Sadaaki Miyamoto
      Pages 241-259
  6. Analysis and Optimization of Technical Systems under Uncertainty

About these proceedings

Introduction

Managing safety of diverse systems requires decision-making under uncertainties and risks. Such systems are typically characterized by spatio-temporal heterogeneities, inter-dependencies, externalities, endogenous risks, discontinuities, irreversibility, practically irreducible uncertainties, and rare events with catastrophic consequences. Traditional scientific approaches rely on data from real observations and experiments; yet no sufficient observations exist for new problems, and experiments are usually impossible. Therefore, science-based support for addressing such new class of problems needs to replace the traditional “deterministic predictions” analysis by new methods and tools for designing decisions that are robust against the involved uncertainties and risks. The new methods treat uncertainties explicitly by using “synthetic” information derived by integration of “hard” elements, including available data, results of possible experiments, and formal representations of scientific facts, with “soft” elements based on diverse representations of scenarios and opinions of public, stakeholders, and experts. The volume presents such effective new methods, and illustrates their applications in different problem areas, including engineering, economy, finance, agriculture, environment, and policy making.

Keywords

Analysis and Optimization of Econ. Systems under Uncertainty Analysis and Optimization of Techn. Systems under Uncertainty Decisions under risks and uncertainties Modeling uncertainties Uncertainty and Optimization

Editors and affiliations

  • Yuri Ermoliev
    • 1
  • Marek Makowski
    • 2
  • Kurt Marti
    • 3
  1. 1.Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)International Institute forLaxenburgAustria
  2. 2.Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)International Institute forLaxenburgAustria
  3. 3.Aerospace Engineering and, TechnologyFederal Armed Forces University MunichNeubiberg/MünchenGermany

Bibliographic information

  • DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-22884-1
  • Copyright Information Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012
  • Publisher Name Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
  • eBook Packages Business and Economics
  • Print ISBN 978-3-642-22883-4
  • Online ISBN 978-3-642-22884-1
  • Series Print ISSN 0075-8442