Methods of Strategic Trade Analysis

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-xvii

   PDF

2. Introduction

   • Christopher Nelson

   Pages 1-3

3. Introduction to Strategic Trade Analysis

   • Christopher Nelson

   Pages 5-23

4. Fundamental Systems of Strategic Trade Analysis

   • Christopher Nelson

   Pages 25-42

5. Introduction to STA Methodologies

   • Christopher Nelson

   Pages 43-45

6. Scripting an Illicit Strategic Trade Transaction

   • Christopher Nelson

   Pages 47-56

7. Strategic Trade Risk Assessment

   • Christopher Nelson

   Pages 57-73

8. Mirror Statistics

   • Christopher Nelson

   Pages 75-90

9. Market Share Analysis

   • Christopher Nelson

   Pages 91-99

10. Transshipment and Re-export Analysis

    • Christopher Nelson

    Pages 101-112

11. Machine Learning for Strategic Trade Analysis

    • Christopher Nelson

    Pages 113-146

12. Network Analysis

    • Christopher Nelson

    Pages 147-169

13. Applying Strategic Trade Analysis

    • Christopher Nelson

    Pages 171-183

This book addresses ways that governments, international organizations, and other stakeholders can utilize data to uncover illicit trade in materials and equipment that could be used to support chemical, biological, nuclear, and advanced conventional weapons systems. Key concepts of strategic trade are introduced, including examples of strategic goods and their potential uses in weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) and weapons systems, the interplay between the Harmonized System and strategic trade control regimes, and the data available for analysis in the field. Innovative, yet practical methodologies to analyze strategic trade cover the use of crime scripts, risk assessment indicators, mirror statistics, market share analysis, and transshipment and re-export analysis.

There are also chapters on leading-edge techniques involving machine learning and network analysis that have shown promise in other areas of crime and illicit trade investigations. Each chapter provides step-by-step instructions on applying the technique, numerous case studies and examples, and discussions of the strengths and weaknesses of each approach. This volume is designed to provide all types of analysts with practical pathways for understanding, detecting, and disrupting illicit procurement of materials and equipment needed to produce WMDs and advanced weapons.

• export controls
• non-proliferation
• illicit trafficking
• illicit trade
• customs compliance
• international trade
• strategic trade controls
• arms control
• weapons of mass destruction

• Strategic Trade Control Research Group, Jersey City, USA

  Christopher Nelson

Christopher Nelson has over 14 years of experience in strategic trade analysis, export control regulations, fraud detection, and industrial capabilities research. He has served as a Safeguards Information Analyst at the International Atomic Energy Agency and a Trade and Industry Analyst at the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security. He holds a B.A. in International Studies and Mathematics from American University and an M.A. in War Studies from King's College London.