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  • Book
  • Open Access
  • © 2019

Modelling our Changing World

  • Published Open Access

  • Presents key concepts of time series: non-stationarity, structural breaks and model selection

  • Reviews the history of time-series modelling

  • Demonstrates how various forms of break can be detected

  • Combines theory and data

Part of the book series: Palgrave Texts in Econometrics (PTEC)

Buying options

Hardcover Book USD 31.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)

Table of contents (8 chapters)

  1. Front Matter

    Pages i-xix
  2. Introduction

    • Jennifer L. Castle, David F. Hendry
    Pages 1-4Open Access
  3. Key Concepts: A Series of Primers

    • Jennifer L. Castle, David F. Hendry
    Pages 5-36Open Access
  4. Why Is the World Always Changing?

    • Jennifer L. Castle, David F. Hendry
    Pages 37-46Open Access
  5. Making Trends and Breaks Work to Our Advantage

    • Jennifer L. Castle, David F. Hendry
    Pages 47-65Open Access
  6. Detectives of Change: Indicator Saturation

    • Jennifer L. Castle, David F. Hendry
    Pages 67-84Open Access
  7. The Polymath: Combining Theory and Data

    • Jennifer L. Castle, David F. Hendry
    Pages 85-99Open Access
  8. Seeing into the Future

    • Jennifer L. Castle, David F. Hendry
    Pages 101-116Open Access
  9. Conclusions: The Ever-Changing Way Forward

    • Jennifer L. Castle, David F. Hendry
    Pages 117-120Open Access
  10. Back Matter

    Pages 121-129

About this book

This open access book focuses on the concepts, tools and techniques needed to successfully model ever-changing time-series data. It emphasizes the need for general models to account for the complexities of the modern world and how these can be applied to a range of issues facing Earth, from modelling volcanic eruptions, carbon dioxide emissions and global temperatures, to modelling unemployment rates, wage inflation and population growth.

Except where otherwise noted, this book is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0.


Keywords

  • Time Series Econometrics Methods
  • Environmental economics
  • General Unrestricted Model
  • General-to-Specific
  • Autometrics
  • Forecasting models
  • Stationary time series
  • Non-stationary time series
  • Primers
  • Forecasting with structural breaks
  • Indicator saturation methods
  • Open Access

Authors and Affiliations

  • Magdalen College, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

    Jennifer L. Castle

  • Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

    David F. Hendry

About the authors

Jennifer L. Castle is Tutorial Fellow in Economics at Magdalen College, Oxford University, UK and Research Fellow at the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, UK. She has published extensively on general-to-specific econometric methods in modelling linear and non-linear economic time series.

David F. Hendry is Director of the Program in Economic Modelling at the Institute for New Economic Thinking and Co-director of Climate Econometrics, both at the Oxford Martin School, UK and Fellow of Nuffield College, Oxford University, UK. He was knighted in 2009, and received a Lifetime Achievement Award from the Economic and Social Research Council in 2014. He is an Honorary Vice-President and a past President of the Royal Economic Society, a Fellow of the British Academy, the Royal Society of Edinburgh, the Econometric Society, the Academy of Social Sciences, and the Journal of Econometrics, and an Honorary Fellow of the International Institute of Forecasters. He has been awarded eight Honorary Doctorates, is listed by the ISI as one of the world's 200 most cited economists, is a Thomson Reuters Citation Laureate, and has received the Guy Medal in Bronze from the Royal Statistical Society.


Bibliographic Information

Buying options

Hardcover Book USD 31.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)