Uncertainty in Risk Assessment, Risk Management, and Decision Making

1. Uncertainty and Risk Assessment: Perspective from the Environmental and Health Sciences

   1. Risk Analysis or Risk Assessment; A Proposal for Consistent Definitions

      • Lawrence B. Gratt

      Pages 241-249

   2. Exposure to Electromagnetic Fields and Brain Tumors

      • Ruey S. Lin, Patricia C. Dischinger, Katherine Farrell

      Pages 251-264

   3. Uncertainty in Population Risk Estimates for Environmental Contaminants

      • C. Richard Cothern, William A. Coniglio, William L. Marcus

      Pages 265-285

   4. Analysis of Uncertainties in CRAC2 Calculations: The Inhalation Pathway

      • G. G. Killough, D. C. Dunning Jr.

      Pages 287-303

   5. Auditing Waste Disposal Facilities

      • David I. Brandwein, Brian L. Murphy, Bruce D. Cowen, Mark S. Halvorsen, William W. Beck Jr., Harold C. Elston Jr.

      Pages 305-318

   6. Analysis of Uncertainties in CRAC2 Calculations: Wet Deposition and Plume Rise

      • R. C. Ward, D. C. Kocher, B. B. Hicks, R. P. Hosker Jr., J.-Y. Ku, K. S. Rao

      Pages 319-323

   7. Use of Health Effect Risk Estimates and Uncertainty in Formal Regulatory Proceedings: A Case Study Involving Atmospheric Particulates

      • L. J. Habegger, A. H. Özkaynak

      Pages 325-338

   8. Application of Estimated Excess Lifetime Cancer Risk in Field Situations

      • Stan C. Freni

      Pages 339-347

   9. Model Uncertainty: Implications for Animal Low-Dose Cancer Risk Assessment Experiments

      • S. C. Y. Wong

      Pages 349-361

   10. Multiple Time Measures are Necessary to Reduce Uncertainty in Dose-Response Modeling: Time- and Dose-Mechanisms of the ED01 Study

       • T. D. Jones, C. S. Dudney, P. J. Walsh

       Pages 363-373

   11. 4,4’-Methylenedianiline: Risk Assessment and Risk Management

       • J. William Hirzy

       Pages 375-387

2. Uncertainty and Risk Assessment: Perspectives from Engineering and Statistics

   1. Fuzzy Hierarchical Analysis

      • J. J. Buckley, V. R. R. Uppuluri

      Pages 389-401

   2. Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor (LMFBR) Risk Assessment

      • G. Sherwood

      Pages 403-419

   3. Examining the Realities of Risk Management

      • B. John Garrick

      Pages 421-433

   4. Integrated Economic Risk Management in a Nuclear Power Plant

      • R. N. M. Hunt, M. Modarres

      Pages 435-443

   5. The Oreda Handbook and Its Role in Offshore Risk Analysis

      • Torkell Gjerstad

      Pages 445-456

   6. Warning Systems: Response Models and Optimization

      • M. E. Paté-Cornell, C. Pe Benito-Claudio

      Pages 457-468

   7. Uncertainty Analysis as Applied to Probabilistic Risk Assessment

      • V. M. Bier

      Pages 469-478

   8. Analysis of Risks of Diversion of Plutonium or Highly Enriched Uranium

      • E. L. Zebroski

      Pages 479-489

   9. An Assessment of the Risk to Plant Personnel and the Public from Petroleum Refinery Accidents

      • J. S. Arendt, D. J. Campbell, M. L. Casada, D. K. Lorenzo

      Pages 491-509

The subject of this volume--uncertainties in risk assessment and management--reflects an important theme in health, safety, and environ­ mental decision making. MOst technological hazards are characterized by substantial uncertainty. Recent examples include nuclear waste disposal, acid rain, asbestos in schools, carcinogens in food, and hazardous waste. realing with such uncertainty is arguably the most difficult and challeng­ ing task facing risk assessors and managers today. Four primary sources of uncertainty in risk assessment and management can be identified: (1) uncertainties about definitions; (2) uncertainties about scientific facts; (3) uncertainties about risk perceptions and atti­ tudes; and (4) uncertainties about values. Uncertainties about definitions derive primarily from disagreements about the meaning and interpretation of key concepts, such as probability. Uncertainties about scientific facts derive primarily from disagreements about failure modes, the probability and magnitude of adverse health or environmental consequences, cause and effect relationships, dose-response relationships, and exposure patterns. Uncertainties about risk perceptions and attitudes derive primarily from disagreements about what constitutes a significant or acceptable level of risk. Uncertainties about values derive primarily from disagreements about the desirability or worth of alternative risk management actions or conse­ quences. The papers in this volume address each of these sources of uncertainty from a variety of perspectives. Reflecting the broad scope of risk assess­ ment and risk management research, the papers include contributions from safety engineers, epidemiologists, toxicologists, chemists, biostatisticians, biologists, decision analysts, economists,psychologists, political scien­ tists, sociologists, ethicists, and lawyers.

• Risk Assessment
• Risk Management
• environment

• National Science Foundation, USA

  Vincent T. Covello

• Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, USA

  Lester B. Lave

• Institute for Regulatory Science, Alexandria, USA

  Alan Moghissi

• Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, USA

  V. R. R. Uppuluri

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