Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk

  • Alberto Troccoli
  • Mike Harrison
  • David L. T. Anderson
  • Simon J. Mason
Conference proceedings

Part of the NATO Science Series book series (NAIV, volume 82)

Table of contents

  1. Front Matter
    Pages i-xiv
  2. Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Context

    1. Alberto Troccoli, Mike Harrison, David L. T. Anderson, Simon J. Mason
      Pages 3-11
    2. Alberto Troccoli, Mike Harrison, Michael Coughlan, Jim B. Williams
      Pages 13-41
  3. The Production of Seasonal Climate Forecasts

    1. David L. T. Anderson
      Pages 45-65
    2. Brian Hoskins, Paul S. Schopf
      Pages 67-89
    3. Joe Tribbia, Alberto Troccoli
      Pages 91-125
    4. Brian Hoskins, Paul S. Schopf, Antonio Navarra
      Pages 127-161
    5. Simon J. Mason, Omar Baddour
      Pages 163-201
  4. Calibration and Assessment of Seasonal Climate Forecasts

    1. David B. Stephenson
      Pages 235-257
    2. Simon J. Mason, David B. Stephenson
      Pages 259-289
  5. Developing Successful Application Strategies

    1. Mike Harrison, Jim B. Williams
      Pages 293-313
    2. John Bellow, Abdalah Mokssit, Jim O'Brien, Rachid Sebbari
      Pages 315-349
    3. Yahya Abawi, Paul Llanso, Mike Harrison, Simon J. Mason
      Pages 351-395
  6. The Future of Seasonal Climate Forecasting

    1. Alberto Troccoli, Mike Harrison, David L. T. Anderson, Simon J. Mason, Michael Coughlan, Jim B. Williams
      Pages 399-410
  7. Back Matter
    Pages 411-467

About these proceedings


Originally formed around a set of lectures presented at a NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI), this book has grown in scope and in aspiration to become organised and presented rather more as a textbook than as a standard “collection of proceedings”. The lack of a unified reference textbook covering both the science of seasonal to interannual predictions and real-world uses of the forecasts was the main driver for the effort placed into writing an amalgamated introductory book, each chapter of which has been thoroughly peer reviewed. Throughout, our objective has been to present a book accessible to people from diverse disciplines, both scientific and social, interested in this intriguing and fast emerging area.

The fascination of seasonal climate forecasting, for which El Niño forecasting provides the prime basis, derives from its multi-faceted character. Not only does it pose exciting new scientific challenges for the climate community, but it is linked naturally to a great variety of key practical concerns, from security related issues, such as water resource management, food security, and disaster prediction and prevention, to health planning, agriculture management, energy supply, and tourism, to name but a few. Seasonal to interannual climate forecasts are indeed becoming a most important element in certain policy/decision making systems, not least within the contexts of sustainable development and of climate change adaptation.


Climate Change Earth Environmental NATO Science Sciences Series IV Sustainable Development Water resource management development production

Editors and affiliations

  • Alberto Troccoli
    • 1
  • Mike Harrison
    • 2
  • David L. T. Anderson
    • 1
  • Simon J. Mason
    • 3
  1. 1.European Centre for Medium Range Weather ForecastsShinfield ParkUK
  2. 2.Wolverton CommonUK
  3. 3.International Research Institute for Climate and SocietyPalisadesUSA

Bibliographic information