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A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections

  • Stanley K. Smith
  • Jeff Tayman
  • David A. Swanson

Part of the The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis book series (PSDE, volume 37)

Table of contents

  1. Front Matter
    Pages i-xv
  2. Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman, David A. Swanson
    Pages 1-18
  3. Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman, David A. Swanson
    Pages 19-43
  4. Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman, David A. Swanson
    Pages 45-50
  5. Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman, David A. Swanson
    Pages 51-76
  6. Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman, David A. Swanson
    Pages 77-101
  7. Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman, David A. Swanson
    Pages 103-153
  8. Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman, David A. Swanson
    Pages 155-183
  9. Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman, David A. Swanson
    Pages 185-213
  10. Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman, David A. Swanson
    Pages 215-249
  11. Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman, David A. Swanson
    Pages 251-285
  12. Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman, David A. Swanson
    Pages 287-299
  13. Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman, David A. Swanson
    Pages 301-322
  14. Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman, David A. Swanson
    Pages 323-371
  15. Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman, David A. Swanson
    Pages 373-391
  16. Back Matter
    Pages 393-411

About this book

Introduction

This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and local population projections. It describes the most commonly used data sources and application techniques for four types of projection methods: cohort-component, trend extrapolation, structural models, and microsimulation. It covers the components of population growth, sources of data, the formation of assumptions, the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection methods and pays special attention to the unique problems that characterize small-area projections.    The authors provide practical guidance to demographers, planners, market analysts, and others called on to construct state and local population projections. They use many examples and illustrations and present suggestions for dealing with special populations, unique circumstances, and inadequate or unreliable data. They describe techniques for controlling one set of projections to another, for interpolating between time points, for sub-dividing age groups, and for constructing projections of population-related variables (e.g., school enrollment, households). They discuss the role of judgment and the importance of the political context in which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for decision making in a world of competing demands and limited resources.   This comprehensive book will provide readers with an understanding not only of the mechanics of the most commonly used population projection methods, but also of the many complex issues affecting their construction, interpretation, evaluation, and use.​

Keywords

Cohort-component Construction of state and local population projections Controlling one set of projections to another Data sources and application techniques Determinants of forecast accuracy Development of evaluation criteria Fertility measures Formation of assumptions Inadequate or unreliable data Interpolating between time points Methodology and analysis Microsimulation Mobility and migration Mortality measures Population growth Population projection methods Population-related variables Small area projections Special populations State and local population projections Strenghts and weaknesses of projection methods Structural models Sub-deviding age groups Trend extrapolation

Authors and affiliations

  • Stanley K. Smith
    • 1
  • Jeff Tayman
    • 2
  • David A. Swanson
    • 3
  1. 1.Bureau of Economic & Business ResearchUniversity of FloridaGainesvilleUSA
  2. 2.Economics DepartmentUniversity of California-San DiegoSan DiegoUSA
  3. 3.Department of SociologyUniversity of California-RiversideRiversideUSA

Bibliographic information