Prediction or Prophecy?

The Boundaries of Economic Foreknowledge and Their Socio-Political Consequences

  • Authors
  • Gregor¬†Betz

Table of contents

  1. Front Matter
    Pages I-XV
  2. Introduction

    1. Pages 1-18
  3. Assessing the predictive limits of economics

  4. Understanding the predictive limits of economics

  5. Living with the predictive limits of economics

  6. Back Matter
    Pages 255-280

About this book


Economic policy making matters to all of us. Economists are supposed to provide the necessary knowledge which enables policy makers to take effective economic policy decisions.

Gregor Betz explores the following questions:

" Where are the limits of economics, in particular the limits of economic foreknowledge?
" Are macroeconomic forecasts credible predictions or mere prophecies and what would this imply for the way economic policy decisions are taken?
" Is rational economic decision making possible without forecasting at all?

Numerous case studies, drawn from economics and natural sciences, underpin the general argumentation.


Entscheidungstheorie Konjunkturprognose Politikberatung Wirtschaftsprognose Wissenschaftstheorie economic policy simulation theory of science

Bibliographic information

  • DOI
  • Copyright Information Deutscher Universit√§ts-Verlag | GWV Fachverlage GmbH, Wiesbaden 2006
  • Publisher Name DUV
  • eBook Packages Business and Economics
  • Print ISBN 978-3-8350-0223-4
  • Online ISBN 978-3-8350-9053-8
  • Buy this book on publisher's site