Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Prediction or Prophecy?

The Boundaries of Economic Foreknowledge and Their Socio-Political Consequences

  • Book
  • © 2006

Overview

Authors:
  1. Gregor Betz
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed   Google Scholar

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this book

Log in via an institution
eBook USD 39.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book USD 54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Other ways to access

Licence this eBook for your library

Institutional subscriptions

Table of contents (13 chapters)

  1. Front Matter

    Pages I-XV
    Download chapter PDF

  2. Introduction

    1. Introduction

      Pages 1-18

  3. Assessing the predictive limits of economics

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 19-19
      Download chapter PDF

    2. Recent performance of economic forecasts

      Pages 21-41

    3. A historical perspective on economic forecast performance

      Pages 43-52

    4. Forecast performance in natural sciences

      Pages 53-78

  4. Understanding the predictive limits of economics

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 79-79
      Download chapter PDF

    2. Predictability of complex systems

      Pages 81-91

    3. The quality of data

      Pages 93-112

    4. Expectations and reflexiveness

      Pages 113-129

    5. Sensitive dependence on initial conditions

      Pages 131-144

    6. Experiment and simulation

      Pages 145-162

    7. Unrealistic-assumption explanations

      Pages 163-174

  5. Living with the predictive limits of economics

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 175-175
      Download chapter PDF

    2. Consequences for traditional decision making

      Pages 177-196

    3. Rational decision making under uncertainty and ignorance

      Pages 197-229

    4. Post-normal science

      Pages 231-254

  6. Back Matter

    Pages 255-280
    Download chapter PDF
Back to top

Keywords

About this book

"Knowing, in order to predict". It was this leitmotiv alone that Auguste Comte, in the 19th century, considered suitable for the then rapidly developing empirical sciences. This view remains unchanged until today—not only in the empirical sciences themselves, but also in the philosophy of science. A scientific theory is and should be evaluated primarily on the grounds of its capacity to correctly predict observable phenomena. The aim of predicting takes precedence over the other important aim of science, namely to produce and purposefully manipulate phenomena by technical means in the laboratory, moreover, it even includes the latter. For if scientists successfully produce and manipulate certain phenomena in an experiment, they can ipso facto predict how that experiment will evolve under certain conditions. We live in a scientifically-dominated world: The more science progresses, the more important correct scientific predictions become. To a sometimes even fa­ tal extent we have made ourselves dependent on science and its results. Our scientifical-technological interventions into nature, yet also into social processes, cover ever larger spatial and temporal distances, and the consequences are ever more drastic given the increasing effort that would be required to reverse the effects—if that is possible at all. That is the reason why we ought to be very well informed about the consequences of our actions, in particular those based on science and technology.

About the author

Dr. Gregor Betz ist wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter von Prof. Dr. Holm Tetens am Fachbereich Philosophie und Geisteswissenschaften der Freien Universität Berlin.

Bibliographic Information

  • Book Title: Prediction or Prophecy?

  • Book Subtitle: The Boundaries of Economic Foreknowledge and Their Socio-Political Consequences

  • Authors: Gregor Betz

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-8350-9053-8

  • Publisher: Deutscher Universitätsverlag Wiesbaden

  • eBook Packages: Business and Economics, Economics and Finance (R0)

  • Copyright Information: Gabler Verlag | Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH, Wiesbaden 2006

  • Softcover ISBN: 978-3-8350-0223-4Published: 26 September 2006

  • eBook ISBN: 978-3-8350-9053-8Published: 06 October 2007

  • Edition Number: 1

  • Number of Pages: XV, 280

  • Topics: Economics, general

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Back to top

Search

Navigation