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Forecasting Models for the German Office Market

  • Authors
  • Alexander Bönner

Table of contents

  1. Front Matter
    Pages I-XX
  2. Alexander Bönner
    Pages 1-4
  3. Alexander Bönner
    Pages 5-11
  4. Alexander Bönner
    Pages 12-35
  5. Alexander Bönner
    Pages 36-44
  6. Alexander Bönner
    Pages 45-107
  7. Alexander Bönner
    Pages 108-141
  8. Alexander Bönner
    Pages 142-146
  9. Back Matter
    Pages 147-168

About this book

Introduction

In every market with free floating prices, all market participants are interested in the future developments of these prices. However, there is an evident research gap for forecasting models for the German office market.

Alexander Bönner closes this gap by focusing on an empirical investigation of several rent and total yield forecasting models for nine major German cities. The applicability and performance of ARIMA, GARCH and multivariate regression models are analyzed and city as well as forecasting horizon-specific patterns are determined and interpreted. Univariate rent forecasting models generally outperform multivariate rent forecasting regression models in the short run. In the long run, multivariate regression models dominate. However, one must bear in mind that in some cities one model permanently outperforms the other. Eventually, the rent level is mainly determined by its economic fundamentals, which is also demonstrated for the total yield examination.

Keywords

ARIMA Forcasting Models GARCH Immobilien Real Estate Real Estate Finance

Bibliographic information

  • DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-8349-9402-8
  • Copyright Information Gabler Verlag | GWV Fachverlage GmbH, Wiesbaden 2009
  • Publisher Name Gabler
  • eBook Packages Business and Economics
  • Print ISBN 978-3-8349-1525-2
  • Online ISBN 978-3-8349-9402-8
  • Buy this book on publisher's site