The Future of the World Economy

Economic Growth and Structural Change

  • Wilhelm Krelle

Table of contents

  1. Front Matter
    Pages i-xix
  2. Analysis and Forecast of Economic Growth and Structural Change on the Basis of a World Model: Results of the Central Research Group

  3. Analysis and Forecast of Structural Change on the Basis of Individual Country Models: Results of Collaborating Research Groups in Different Countries

  4. Analysis and Forecast of World Trade, the Debt Situation, and North—South Economic Relations

  5. Some General and Methodological Problems Related to Economic Growth and Structural Change

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 541-541
    2. S. Menshikov, L. Klimenko
      Pages 543-560
    3. G. d’Alcantara
      Pages 561-569
  6. Back Matter
    Pages 601-683

About this book


Economic growth and structural change - the future of the world economy - is analysed in this book. Conditional forecasts are given for the economic development of the most important world market countries till the year 2000. The driving forces of economic growth are identified and forecasted, in connection with collaborating scholars in most of these countries and with international organizations. This information is used in solving a coherent world model. The model consists of linked growth models for each country (or groups of countries). The solutions show that the inequality in international income distribution will further increase and that the CMEA and OECD countries will approximately keep their relative positions, with some changes within these groups. Structural change is also analysed. Additionally separate forecasts prepared by each collaborating country group are given and may be compared with the forecasts by the world model. The book closes with chapters on special features of the future economic development: on the international debt problem, on long waves, on structural change in the world trade, on the emergence of service economics and on the comparison of GDP and NMP national accounting.


Economic Development Economic Growth Forecasting Japan Simulation exchange rates foreign trade growth growth model

Editors and affiliations

  • Wilhelm Krelle
    • 1
    • 2
  1. 1.Institute of Social Sciences and EconomicsBonn UniversityBonn 1Germany
  2. 2.IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisLaxenburgAustria

Bibliographic information

  • DOI
  • Copyright Information Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1989
  • Publisher Name Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
  • eBook Packages Springer Book Archive
  • Print ISBN 978-3-662-02588-8
  • Online ISBN 978-3-662-02586-4
  • Buy this book on publisher's site