Outlook for Japanese and German Future Technology

Comparing Technology Forecast Surveys

  • Kerstin Cuhls
  • Terutaka Kuwahara

Part of the Technology, Innovation and Policy book series (3217, volume 1)

Table of contents

  1. Front Matter
    Pages I-XVI
  2. Kerstin Cuhls, Terutaka Kuwahara
    Pages 1-41
  3. Kerstin Cuhls, Terutaka Kuwahara
    Pages 41-97
  4. Kerstin Cuhls, Terutaka Kuwahara
    Pages 98-143
  5. Kerstin Cuhls, Terutaka Kuwahara
    Pages 144-227
  6. Kerstin Cuhls, Terutaka Kuwahara
    Pages 227-235
  7. Back Matter
    Pages 236-238

About this book


In Japan, the Delphi method is applied since 1971 to foresee possible technological developments. The same approach was used in Germany in 1992 for the first time. The German expert survey about the development of future technology was based on the Japanese survey conducted in 1991 and discussed the same topics.
In this book, the results of both studies are compared and analysed. From the comparison, conclusions can be drawn on the relevance of certain technology fields or disciplines not only for public technology policy but also for companies. Possible times of realization, constraints on the realization, the current R&D level of nations or the necessity of international co-operation give hints about tomorrow's technology and its economic and societal impacts.


Delphi-Studie Delphi-Study Forschung, Entwicklung Japan Research, Development Technologie Technology science and technology technology policy

Authors and affiliations

  • Kerstin Cuhls
    • 1
  • Terutaka Kuwahara
    • 2
  1. 1.Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation ResearchKarlsruheGermany
  2. 2.National Institute of Science and Technology PolicyChiyoda-Ku Tokyo 100Japan

Bibliographic information

  • DOI
  • Copyright Information Physica-Verlag Heidelberg 1994
  • Publisher Name Physica-Verlag HD
  • eBook Packages Springer Book Archive
  • Print ISBN 978-3-7908-0800-1
  • Online ISBN 978-3-642-99773-0
  • Series Print ISSN 1431-9667
  • Buy this book on publisher's site