A Structural Analysis of Expectation Formation

Based on Business Surveys of French Manufacturing Industry

  • Marc Ivaldi

Part of the Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems book series (LNE, volume 354)

Table of contents

  1. Front Matter
    Pages N1-XII
  2. Introduction

    1. Marc Ivaldi
      Pages 1-19
  3. Forecasting Production Behavior in the Short-Run

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 20-22
    2. Marc Ivaldi
      Pages 23-45
    3. Marc Ivaldi
      Pages 112-139
  4. Survey Evidence on the Rationality of Expectations

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 140-142
    2. Marc Ivaldi
      Pages 143-157
  5. Conclusion

    1. Marc Ivaldi
      Pages 207-214
  6. Back Matter
    Pages 215-233

About this book


Using panel data of individual firms drawn from French surveys, a structural analysis is developed to study the formation of production plans and the rationality of expectations. The production decision of a firm is defined as the optimal solution of a dynamic stochastic optimization problem. The empirical work amounts to recovering the structural parameters characterizing the model of the firm from estimates of the derived decision rule. The preceding analysis of production plans is based on the assumption that firms are rational. To justify this assumption, direct tests offer evidence that the Rational Expectations Hypothesis may not be rejected for quantity variables.


Korrelation Korrelationskoeffizient Markov chain econometrics efficiency forecasting latent variables optimization polychoric correlation coefficient production-smoothing model rational expectations rationale Erwartungen statistics Ökonometrie

Authors and affiliations

  • Marc Ivaldi
    • 1
  1. 1.G.R.E.M.A.Q. and E.H.E.S.S.Université des Sciences SocialesToulouse CedexFrance

Bibliographic information

  • DOI
  • Copyright Information Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1991
  • Publisher Name Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
  • eBook Packages Springer Book Archive
  • Print ISBN 978-3-540-53665-9
  • Online ISBN 978-3-642-46735-6
  • Series Print ISSN 0075-8442
  • Buy this book on publisher's site