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Modeling Conflict Dynamics with Spatio-temporal Data

  • Andrew Zammit-Mangion
  • Michael Dewar
  • Visakan Kadirkamanathan
  • Anaïd Flesken
  • Guido Sanguinetti

Part of the SpringerBriefs in Applied Sciences and Technology book series (BRIEFSAPPLSCIENCES)

Also part of the Mathematical Methods book sub series (BRIEFSMATHMETH)

Table of contents

  1. Front Matter
    Pages i-viii
  2. Andrew Zammit-Mangion, Michael Dewar, Visakan Kadirkamanathan, Anaïd Flesken, Guido Sanguinetti
    Pages 1-14
  3. Andrew Zammit-Mangion, Michael Dewar, Visakan Kadirkamanathan, Anaïd Flesken, Guido Sanguinetti
    Pages 15-46
  4. Andrew Zammit-Mangion, Michael Dewar, Visakan Kadirkamanathan, Anaïd Flesken, Guido Sanguinetti
    Pages 47-66
  5. Back Matter
    Pages 67-74

About this book

Introduction

This authored monograph presents the use of dynamic spatiotemporal modeling tools for the identification of complex underlying processes in conflict, such as diffusion, relocation, heterogeneous escalation, and volatility. The authors use ideas from statistics, signal processing, and ecology, and provide a predictive framework which is able to assimilate data and give confidence estimates on the predictions.
The book also demonstrates the methods on the WikiLeaks Afghan War Diary, the results showing that this approach allows deeper insights into conflict dynamics and allows a strikingly statistically accurate forward prediction of armed opposition group activity in 2010, based solely on data from preceding years. The target audience primarily comprises researchers and practitioners in the involved fields but the book may also be beneficial for graduate students.

Keywords

Conflict Prediction Geometric Brownian Motion Heterogeneous Escalation Point Process Modeling Spatiotemporal Modeling WikiLeaks Afghan War Diary

Authors and affiliations

  • Andrew Zammit-Mangion
    • 1
  • Michael Dewar
    • 2
  • Visakan Kadirkamanathan
    • 3
  • Anaïd Flesken
    • 4
  • Guido Sanguinetti
    • 5
  1. 1.School of Geographical Sciences Department of MathematicsThe University of BristolBristolUnited Kingdom
  2. 2.New YorkUSA
  3. 3.Automatic Control & Systems EngineeringThe University of SheffieldSheffieldUnited Kingdom
  4. 4.GIGA German Institute of Global and AreaHamburgGermany
  5. 5.School of InformaticsUniversity of EdinburghEdinburghUnited Kingdom

Bibliographic information

  • DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-01038-0
  • Copyright Information The Author(s) 2013
  • Publisher Name Springer, Cham
  • eBook Packages Mathematics and Statistics
  • Print ISBN 978-3-319-01037-3
  • Online ISBN 978-3-319-01038-0
  • Series Print ISSN 2191-530X
  • Series Online ISSN 2191-5318
  • Buy this book on publisher's site