Low-Probability High-Consequence Risk Analysis

Issues, Methods, and Case Studies

  • Ray A. Waller
  • Vincent T. Covello

Part of the Advances in Risk Analysis book series (AIRA, volume 2)

Table of contents

  1. Front Matter
    Pages i-x
  2. Low-Probability/High-Consequence Risk Analysis Models

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 1-3
    2. J. W. Minarick, C. A. Kukielka
      Pages 5-32
    3. Thomas P. Ballestero, Daryl B. Simons, Ruh-Ming Li
      Pages 55-63
    4. David P. Wagner, Myron L. Casada, J. B. Fussell
      Pages 65-80
    5. William L. Baldewicz
      Pages 81-90
    6. F. Niehaus, G. de Leon, M. Cullingford
      Pages 91-105
    7. A. Mosleh, G. Apostolakis
      Pages 107-124
  3. Uncertainties Associated with Low-Probability/High-Consequence Risk Analysis Results

  4. Statistics in Low-Probability/High-Consequence Risk Analysis

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 181-185
    2. H. F. Martz, M. C. Bryson
      Pages 187-199
  5. Case Studies of Recent Risk Analyses

  6. Quantification of Human Error in LP/HC Risk Analysis

  7. Legal Issues and Regulatory Decision Making in Low Probability/High Consequence Risk Analyses

  8. Low Probability/High Consequence Risk Analysis: Research Needs

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 481-482
    2. M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell
      Pages 493-503
  9. Low-Probability/High-Consequence Risk Analysis and The Public

  10. Back Matter
    Pages 569-571

About this book


In recent years public attention has focused on an array of low-probability/high-consequence (LC/HC) events that pose a signif­ icant threat to human health, safety, and the environment. At the same time, public and private sector responsibilities for the assessment and management of such events have grown because of a perceived need to anticipate, prevent, or reduce the risks. In attempting to meet these responsibilities, legislative, judicial, regulatory, and private sector institutions have had to deal with the extraordinarily complex problem of assessing and balancing LP/ HC risks against the costs and ben if its of risk reduction. The need to help society cope with LP/HC events such as nuclear power plant accidents, toxic spills, chemical plant explosions, and transportation accidents has given rise to the development of a new intellectual endeavor: LP/HC risk analysis. The scope and complexity of these analyses require a high degree of cooperative effort on the part of specialists from many f~elds. Analyzing technical, social, and value issues requires the efforts of physicists, biologists, geneticists, statisticians, chemists, engineers, political scientists, sociologists, decision analysts, management scientists, economists, psychologists, ethicists, lawyers, and policy analysts. Included in this volume are papers by authors in each of these disciplines. The papers share in common a focus on one or more of the following questions that are generic to the analysis of LP/HC risks.


attention complexity health time

Editors and affiliations

  • Ray A. Waller
    • 1
  • Vincent T. Covello
    • 2
  1. 1.Los Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosUSA
  2. 2.U.S. National Science FoundationUSA

Bibliographic information