Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries

Insights from a Statistical, Demographic and Epidemiological Perspective

  • Ewa Tabeau
  • Anneke van den Berg Jeths
  • Christopher Heathcote

Part of the European Studies of Population book series (ESPO, volume 9)

Table of contents

  1. Front Matter
    Pages i-xxvi
  2. Introduction

    1. Anneke Van Den Berg Jeths, Rudolf Hoogenveen, Guus De Hollander, Ewa Tabeau
      Pages 33-56
  3. Theoretical Perspectives on Forecasting Mortality

  4. From Theory to Practice

    1. Ewa Tabeau, Peter Ekamper, Corina Huisman, Alinda Bosch
      Pages 159-187
    2. Marianne Van Genugten, Rudolf Hoogenveen, Augustinus De Hollander
      Pages 189-204
    3. Wim Van Hoorn, Joop De Beer
      Pages 205-226
    4. Harri Cruijsen, Harold Eding
      Pages 227-258
  5. Issues for the Future: More Consistency and Transparency

  6. Back Matter
    Pages 304-304

About this book

Introduction

Information on future mortality trends is essential for population forecasts, public health policy, actuarial studies, and many other purposes. Realising the importance of such needs, this volume contains contributions to the theory and practice of forecasting mortality in the relatively favourable circumstances in developed countries of Western Europe.
In this context techniques from mathematical statistics and econometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. The naive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give as good a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requires careful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historical conditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted that scientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality, perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than the outline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence. The decision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historical data (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain a forecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmental elements, with the quality of the latter dependent on demographic, epidemiological and indeed perhaps more general considerations. The thread running through the book reflects therefore the necessity of integrating demographic, epidemiological, and statistical factors to obtain an improvement in the prediction of mortality.

Keywords

Ageing Public Health epidemiological epidemiology public health policy statistics

Editors and affiliations

  • Ewa Tabeau
    • 1
  • Anneke van den Berg Jeths
    • 2
  • Christopher Heathcote
    • 3
  1. 1.Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI)The HagueThe Netherlands
  2. 2.National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM)BilthovenThe Netherlands
  3. 3.Australian National UniversityCanberraAustralia

Bibliographic information

  • DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/0-306-47562-6
  • Copyright Information Kluwer Academic Publishers 2001
  • Publisher Name Springer, Dordrecht
  • eBook Packages Springer Book Archive
  • Print ISBN 978-0-7923-6833-5
  • Online ISBN 978-0-306-47562-7
  • Series Print ISSN 1381-3579
  • About this book