Abstract
Science teaching is one of the most important tools for developing individuals’ critical thinking skills. Therefore, studies about achievement predictors of science teaching are increasingly being performed in order to provide evidence of what could influence students’ academic performance. As a contribution to those studies, this paper applies a predictive analysis to students’ science achievement in the 2011 National Examination for Secondary Education (ENEM). The sample is composed of Brazilian students who took the 2-day exam ENEM in 2011. The CART algorithm was applied through a model with 53 predictors. The model explained 24.50% of the science achievement variance. The results showed a lower achievement for those students who (1) were not enrolled in a private school to attend Secondary Education; (2) are female; (3) live in the North, North East, and Center-West regions of Brazil; (4) were strongly motivated to take the exam to obtain a Secondary Education certificate or scholarship; (5) had not yet finished Secondary Education until 2011; and (6) whose family income was equal or lower than a 1.5 minimum wage, as well as equal or lower than 5 minimum wages, depending on the type of school attended by the student in Secondary Education.
Resumen
La educación en ciencias es uno de los pilares para el desarrollo de habilidades de pensamiento crítico de los individuos. Por consecuencia, verifica-se un creciente número de estudios predictivos, en el sentido de comprehender cuales elementos influencian el rendimiento en ciencias. Este artículo busca contribuir para esta problemática, empleando un análisis predictivo del rendimiento dicente en ciencias del Exame Nacional do Ensino Médio (ENEM) de 2011. La muestra es compuesta de estudiantes brasileros presentes en los dos días del examen. El algoritmo CART aplicado tras un modelo con 53 predicadores. El modelo predice 24,50% de varianza del rendimiento en ciencias. Los resultados indican la presencia de un rendimiento más pequeño para estudiantes: (1) que no se inscribieron en escuela privada en la Educación Secundaria; (2) mujeres; (3) que vivían en las regiones Norte, Nordeste y Centro-Oeste de Brasil; (4) que estuvieron fuertemente motivados a hacer el examen para obtener certificado o beca de estudios; (5) que no habían finalizado la Educación Secundaria hasta 2011; (6) cuya renda familiar mensual era igual o más pequeña que 1,5 sueldos mínimos, o igual o más pequeña que 5 sueldos mínimos, dependiendo del tipo de escuela cursada por lo estudiante en la Educación Secundaria.
Resumo
A educação em ciências é um dos pilares mais importantes para o desenvolvimento de habilidades de pensamento crítico dos indivíduos. Por consequência, verifica-se um crescente número de estudos preditivos, no intuito de compreender quais elementos influenciam o desempenho em ciências. Este artigo busca contribuir para essa problemática, empregando uma análise preditiva do desempenho discente em ciências do Exame Nacional do Ensino Médio (ENEM) de 2011. A amostra é composta de estudantes brasileiros que estiveram presentes nos dois dias do exame. O algoritmo CART foi aplicado, via um modelo com 53 preditores. O modelo explicou 24,50% da variância do desempenho em ciências. Os resultados indicam a presença de um menor desempenho para estudantes: (1) que não se matricularam em uma escola particular na Educação Secundária; (2) mulheres; (3) que viviam na região Norte, Nordeste e Centro-Oeste do Brasil; (4) que estavam fortemente motivados para fazer o exame para obter certificado ou bolsa de estudos; (5) que não tinham finalizado a Educação Secundária até 2011; (6) cuja renda familiar mensal era igual ou menor a 1,5 salários mínimos, ou igual ou menor a 5 salários mínimos, dependendo do tipo de escola cursada pelo estudante na Educação Secundária.
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Productivity Fellowship of CNPq Brazil for Cristiano Mauro Assis Gomes.
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Gomes, C.M.A., Amantes, A. & Jelihovschi, E.G. Applying the Regression Tree Method to Predict Students’ Science Achievement. Trends in Psychol. 28, 99–117 (2020). https://doi.org/10.9788/s43076-019-00002-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.9788/s43076-019-00002-5