Skip to main content
Springer Nature Link
Log in
Menu
Find a journal Publish with us Track your research
Search
Cart
  1. Home
  2. Memory & Cognition
  3. Article

Allocating time to future tasks: The effect of task segmentation on planning fallacy bias

  • Published: June 2008
  • Volume 36, pages 791–798, (2008)
  • Cite this article
Download PDF
Memory & Cognition Aims and scope Submit manuscript
Allocating time to future tasks: The effect of task segmentation on planning fallacy bias
Download PDF
  • Darryl K. Forsyth1 nAff2 &
  • Christopher D. B. Burt2 
  • 5061 Accesses

  • 33 Citations

  • 23 Altmetric

  • 1 Mention

  • Explore all metrics

Abstract

The scheduling component of the time management process was used as a (“paradigm”) to investigate the allocation of time to future tasks. In three experiments, we compared task time allocation for a single task with the summed time allocations given for each subtask that made up the single task. In all three, we found that allocated time for a single task was significantly smaller than the summed time allocated to the individual subtasks. We refer to this as the segmentation effect. In Experiment 3, we asked participants to give estimates by placing a mark on a time line, and found that giving time allocations in the form of rounded close approximations probably does not account for the segmentation effect. We discuss the results in relation to the basic processes used to allocate time to future tasks and the means by which planning fallacy bias might be reduced.

Article PDF

Download to read the full article text

Similar content being viewed by others

Total Setup Time Minimisation in Production Scheduling with Alternatives

Chapter © 2017

Deterministic Task Scheduling Method in Multiprocessor Environment

Chapter © 2018

Study on Locality, Fairness, and Optimal Resource Allocation in Cluster Scheduling

Chapter © 2024

Explore related subjects

Discover the latest articles, books and news in related subjects, suggested using machine learning.
  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Cognition
  • Cognitivism
  • Organizational Psychology
  • Project Management
  • Working Memory
Use our pre-submission checklist

Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.

References

  • Armstrong, J. S., Denniston, W. B., & Gordon, M. M. (1975). The use of the decomposition principle in making judgments. Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes, 14, 257–263.

    Google Scholar 

  • Berkeley, D., & Humphreys, P. (1982). Structuring decision problems and the (“bias heuristic.”) Acta Psychologica, 50, 201–252.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Block, R. A., & Zakay, D. (1997). Prospective and retrospective duration judgments: A meta-analytic review. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 4, 184–197.

    Google Scholar 

  • Buehler, R., Griffin, D., & MacDonald, H. (1997). The role of motivated reasoning in optimistic time predications. Personality & Social Psychology Bulletin, 23, 238–247.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Buehler, R., Griffin, D., & Ross, M. (1994). Exploring the (“planning fallacy”): Why people underestimate their task completion times. Journal of Personality & Social Psychology, 67, 366–381.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burt, C. D. B., & Forsyth, D. (1999). Designing materials for efficient time management: Segmentation and planning space. Cognitive Technology, 4, 11–18.

    Google Scholar 

  • Burt, C. D. B. & Kemp, S. (1994). Construction of activity duration and time management potential. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 8, 155–168.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Byram, S. J. (1997). Cognitive and motivational factors influencing time prediction. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 3, 216–239.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Claessens, B. J. C., Van Eerde, W., Rutte, C. G., & Roe, R. A. (2004). Planning behavior and perceived control of time at work. Journal of Organizational Behavior, 25, 937–950.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eisler, H. (1976). Experiments on subjective duration 1868-1975: A collection of power function exponents. Psychological Bulletin, 83, 1154–1171.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Francis-Smythe, J. A., & Robertson, I. T. (1999). On the relationship between time management and time estimation. British Journal of Psychology, 90, 333–347.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grimstad, S., Jørgensen, M., & Moløkken-Østvold, K. (2006). Software effort estimation terminology: The tower of Babel. Information & Software Technology, 48, 302–310.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Henrion, M., Fischer, G. W. & Mullin, T. (1993). Divide and conquer? Effects of decomposition on the accuracy and calibration of subjective probability distributions. Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes, 55, 207–227.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hora, S. C., Dodd, N. G., & Hora, J. A. (1993). The use of decomposition in probability assessment of continuous variables. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 6, 133–147.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hornik, J. (1981). Time cue and time perception effect on response to mail survey. Journal of Marketing Research, 18, 243–248.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huttenlocher, J., Hedges, L. V., & Bradburn, N. M. (1990). Reports of elapsed time: Bounding and rounding processes in estimation. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, & Cognition, 16, 196–213.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jørgensen, M. (2004). Top-down and bottom-up estimation of software development effort. Information & Software Technology, 46, 3–16.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Intuitive prediction: Biases and corrective procedures. TIMS Studies in Management Science, 12, 313–327.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kruger, J., & Evans, M. (2004). If you don’t want to be late, enumerate: Unpacking reduces the planning fallacy. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 40, 586–598.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Macan, T. M. (1994). Time management: Test of a process model. Journal of Applied Psychology, 79, 381–391.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • MacGregor, D. G., & Armstrong, J. S. (1994). Judgmental decomposition: When does it work? International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 495–506.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Newby-Clark, I. R., Ross, M., Buehler, R., Koehler, D. J., & Griffin, D. (2000). People focus on optimistic scenarios and disregard pessimistic scenarios while predicting task completion times. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 6, 171–182.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Oden, G. (1987). Concept, knowledge, and thought. Annual Review of Psychology, 38, 203–227.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roy, M. M., Christenfeld, N. J. S., & McKenzie, C. R. M. (2005). Underestimating the duration of future events: Memory incorrectly used or memory bias? Psychological Bulletin, 131, 738–756.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Schank, R. C., & Abelson, R. P. (1977). Scripts, plans, goals, and understanding: An inquiry into human knowledge structures. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith, E. E., & Medin, D. L. (1981). Categories and concepts. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zakay, D. (1990). The evasive art of subjective time measurement: Some methodological dilemmas. In R. A. Block (Ed.), Cognitive models of psychological time (pp. 59–84). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Author notes
  1. Darryl K. Forsyth

    Present address: Department of Management and International Business, Massey University, New Zealand

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Psychology, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch, New Zealand

    Darryl K. Forsyth

  2. Massey University, Auckland, New Zealand

    Christopher D. B. Burt

Authors
  1. Darryl K. Forsyth
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Christopher D. B. Burt
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Christopher D. B. Burt.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Forsyth, D.K., Burt, C.D.B. Allocating time to future tasks: The effect of task segmentation on planning fallacy bias. Memory & Cognition 36, 791–798 (2008). https://doi.org/10.3758/MC.36.4.791

Download citation

  • Received: 21 September 2006

  • Accepted: 05 November 2007

  • Issue date: June 2008

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.3758/MC.36.4.791

Share this article

Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:

Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article.

Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative

Keywords

  • Time Allocation
  • Future Task
  • Software Effort Estimation
  • Spelling Mistake
  • Phone Bill
Use our pre-submission checklist

Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.

Advertisement

Search

Navigation

  • Find a journal
  • Publish with us
  • Track your research

Discover content

  • Journals A-Z
  • Books A-Z

Publish with us

  • Journal finder
  • Publish your research
  • Language editing
  • Open access publishing

Products and services

  • Our products
  • Librarians
  • Societies
  • Partners and advertisers

Our brands

  • Springer
  • Nature Portfolio
  • BMC
  • Palgrave Macmillan
  • Apress
  • Discover
  • Your US state privacy rights
  • Accessibility statement
  • Terms and conditions
  • Privacy policy
  • Help and support
  • Legal notice
  • Cancel contracts here

167.114.118.212

Not affiliated

Springer Nature

© 2025 Springer Nature