Abstract
Hindsight bias, the inability to ignore outcome information, was studied in a sparse and abstract environment, that of a probability learning task. Following the probability learning task, the subjects were asked to estimate the probability of the events. The subjects in the hindsight conditions were provided outcome information. They were unable to ignore the outcome information even though they were instructed to do so. Their mean probability estimates deviated in the direction of the outcome information they received. This was found for subjects who received the “actual probabilities” as outcome information as well as for subjects who were only given what the event on the next trial would have been.
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Hennessey, J.E., Edgell, S.E. Hindsight bias in a very sparse environment. Bull. Psychon. Soc. 29, 433–436 (1991). https://doi.org/10.3758/BF03333963
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.3758/BF03333963