Abstract
Twenty-five 4- and 5-year-old children predicted the next event in a 100-trial single alternation sequence. Each child received a different 50:50 random sequence of long and short intertrial interval durations. A model based on a theory emphasizing attention and short term memory processes gave a detailed quantitative description of the data. Transition relative frequencies across long and short intertriai intervals were interpreted theoretically as revealing greater guessing rates following long intervals, thus confirming the hypothesized role of a fallible short term memory subject to decay or interference effects.
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Bogartz, R. S. Test of a theory of predictive behavior in young children. Psychon. Sci., 1966, 4, 433–434.
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1. These data were collected at the University of Iowa. I am indebted to John M. Love for his assistance.
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Bogartz, R.S. Extension of a theory of predictive behavior in young children to the effects of intertrial interval duration. Psychon Sci 8, 521–522 (1967). https://doi.org/10.3758/BF03331731
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.3758/BF03331731