Psychonomic Bulletin & Review

, Volume 5, Issue 2, pp 197–220 | Cite as

Selective hypothesis testing

  • David M. SanbonmatsuEmail author
  • Steven S. Posavac
  • Frank R. Kardes
  • Susan P. Mantel


A diverse set of biases that have been found to characterize judgment may be similarly mediated by a process of selective hypothesis testing. Our paper begins with a definition of selective hypothesis testing and an explanation of how and when this process leads to error. We then review a diverse and often disconnected set of findings in the person perception, judgment, cognition, attitudes, attribution, and rule discovery literatures that can be explained by this process. Finally, we examine the question of why the selective testing of hypotheses occurs. Although the psychological literature suggests that selective hypothesis testing contributes to a variety of errors, in many contexts it may be a useful and efficient strategy that leads to satisfactory judgment.


Journal ofExperimental Psychology Contingent Valuation Fault Tree Experimental Social Psychology Hindsight Bias 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


  1. Abelson, R. P., &Levi, A. (1985). Decision making and decision theory. In G. Lindzey & A. Aronson (Eds.),Handbook of social psychology (Vol. 2, pp. 231–310). New York: Random House.Google Scholar
  2. Ajzen, I., &Fishbein, M. (1980).Understanding attitudes and predicting social behavior. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.Google Scholar
  3. Alba, J.W., &Chattopadhyay, A. (1985). Effects of context and part-category cues on recall of competing brands.Journal of Marketing Research,22, 340–349.Google Scholar
  4. Alba, J. W., &Chattopadhyay, A. (1986). Salience effects in brand recall.Journal of Marketing Research,23, 363–369.Google Scholar
  5. Alloy, L. B., &Tabachnik, N. (1984). Assessment of covariation by humans and animals: The joint influence of prior expectations and current situational information.Psychological Review,91, 112–149.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  6. Anderson, C. A. (1983). Abstract and concrete data in the perseverance of social theories: When weak data lead to unshakable beliefs.Journal of Experimental Social Psychology,19, 93–108.Google Scholar
  7. Anderson, C. A., &Sechler, E. S. (1986). Effects of explanation and counter-explanation on the development and use of social theories.Journal of Personality & Social Psychology,50, 24–34.Google Scholar
  8. Anderson, N. H. (1981).Foundations of information integration theory. New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar
  9. Anderson, N. H. (1982).Methods of information integration theory. New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar
  10. Anderson, N. H., &Hubert, S. (1963). Effects of concomitant verbal recall on order effects in personality impression formation.Journal of Verbal Learning & Verbal Behavior,2, 379–391.Google Scholar
  11. Anderson, R. C., &Pichert, J. W. (1978). Recall of previously unrecallable information following a shift in perspective.Journal of Verbal Learning & Verbal Behavior,17, 1–12.Google Scholar
  12. Arkes, H. R. (1991). The costs and benefits of judgmental errors: Implications for debiasing.Psychological Bulletin,110, 486–498.Google Scholar
  13. Arkes, H. R., &Harkness, A. R. (1983). Estimates of contingency between two dichotomous variables.Journal of Experimental Psychology: General,112, 117–135.Google Scholar
  14. Asch, S. E. (1946). Forming impressions of personality.Journal of Abnormal & Social Psychology,41, 258–290.Google Scholar
  15. Bacon, F. (1960).The new organon and related writings. New York: Liberal Arts Press. (Original work published 1620)Google Scholar
  16. Baker, A. G., Mercier, P., Vallée-Tourangeau, F., Frank, R., &Pan, M. (1993). Selective associations and causality judgments: Presence of a strong causal factor may reduce judgments of a weaker one.Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, & Cognition,19, 414–432.Google Scholar
  17. Bargh, J. A., Bond, R. N., Lombardi, W. L., &Tota, M. E. (1986). The additive nature of chronic and temporary sources of construct accessibility.Journal of Personality & Social Psychology,50, 869–878.Google Scholar
  18. Bassok, M., &Trope, Y. (1984). People’s strategies for testing hypotheses about another’s personality: Confirmatory or diagnostic?Social Cognition,2, 199–216.Google Scholar
  19. Baumeister, R. F., &Newman, L. S. (1993). Self-regulation of cognitive inference and decision processes.Personality & Social Psychology Bulletin,20, 3–19.Google Scholar
  20. Beach, L. R., &Mitchell, T. R. (1978). A contingency model for the selection of decision strategies.Academy of Management Review,3, 439–449.Google Scholar
  21. Bettman, J. R. (1979).An information processing theory of consumer choice. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.Google Scholar
  22. Bettman, J. R., Johnson, E. J., &Payne, J. W. (1991). Consumer decision making. In T. S. Robertson & H. H. Kassarjian (Eds.),Handbook of consumer behavior (pp. 50–84). Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.Google Scholar
  23. Beyth-Marom, R. (1982). Perception of correlation reexamined.Memory & Cognition,10, 511–519.Google Scholar
  24. Beyth-Marom, R., &Fischhoff, B. (1983). Diagnosticity and pseudodiagnosticity.Journal of Personality & Social Psychology,45, 1185–1195.Google Scholar
  25. Borgida, E., &DeBono, K. G. (1989). Social hypothesis-testing and the role of expertise.Personality & Social Psychology Bulletin,15, 212–221.Google Scholar
  26. Broniarczyk, S., &Alba, J. W. (1994a). The role of consumers’ intuitions in inference making.Journal of Consumer Research,21, 393–407.Google Scholar
  27. Broniarczyk, S., &Alba, J. W. (1994b). Theory versus data in prediction and correlation tasks.Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes,57, 117–139.Google Scholar
  28. Bruner, J. S., Goodnow, J., &Austin, G. A. (1956).A study of thinking. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
  29. Campbell, J. D., &Tesser, A. (1983). Motivational interpretations of hindsight bias: An individual difference analysis.Journal of Personality,51, 605–620.Google Scholar
  30. Carroll, J. S. (1978). The effect of imagining an event on expectations for the event: An interpretation in terms of the availability heuristic.Journal of Experimental Social Psychology,14, 88–96.Google Scholar
  31. Chaiken, S., Liberman, A., &Eagly, A. H. (1989). Heuristic and systematic processing within and beyond the persuasion context. In J. S. Uleman & J. A. Bargh (Eds.),Unintended thought (pp. 212–252). New York: Guilford.Google Scholar
  32. Chaiken, S., &Maheswaran, D. (1992). Heuristic processing can bias systematic processing: Effects of source credibility, argument ambiguity, and task importance on attitude judgment.Journal of Personality & Social Psychology,66, 460–473.Google Scholar
  33. Chapman, G. B. (1991). Trial order affects cue interaction in contingency judgment.Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, & Cognition,17, 837–854.Google Scholar
  34. Chapman, G. B., &Robbins, S. J. (1990). Cue interaction in human contingency judgment.Memory & Cognition,18, 537–545.Google Scholar
  35. Chapman, L. J., &Chapman, J. P. (1969). Illusory correlation as an obstacle to the use of valid psychodiagnostic signs.Journal of Abnormal Psychology,74, 271–280.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  36. Christensen-Szalanski, J. J. J., &Willham, C. F. (1991). The hindsight bias: A meta-analysis.Organizational Behavior & Human decision Processes,48, 147–168.Google Scholar
  37. Connolly, T., &Bukszar, E.W. (1990). Hindsight bias: Self-flattery or cognitive error?Journal of Behavioral Decision Making,3, 205–211.Google Scholar
  38. Crocker, J. (1981). Judgment of covariation by social perceivers.Psychological Bulletin,90, 272–292.Google Scholar
  39. Darley, J. M., &Gross, P. H. (1983). A hypothesis-confirming bias in labeling effects.Journal of Personality & Social Psychology,44, 20–33.Google Scholar
  40. Dawes, R. M. (1994).House of cards: Psychology and psychotherapy built on myth. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
  41. Dawes, R. M., &Mulford, M. (1996). The false consensus effect and overconfidence: Flaws in judgment or flaws in how we study judgment?Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes,65, 201–211.Google Scholar
  42. Deaux, K., &Emswiller, T. (1974). Explanations of successful performance on sex-linked tasks: What is skill for the male is luck for the female.Journal of Personality & Social Psychology,29, 80–85.Google Scholar
  43. Delany, D. E., &Hilton, D. J. (1991). Conversational implicature, conscious representation, and the conjunction fallacy.Social Cognition,9, 85–110.Google Scholar
  44. Devine, P. G., Hirt, E. R., &Gehrke, E. M. (1990). Diagnostic and confirmation strategies in trait hypothesis testing.Journal of Personality & Social Psychology,58, 952–963.Google Scholar
  45. Diamond, P. A., &Hausman, J. A. (1993). On contingent valuation: Measurement of nonuse values. In J. A. Hausman (Ed.),Contingent valuation: A critical assessment. New York: Elsevier, North-Holland.Google Scholar
  46. Dickinson, A., Shanks, D. R., &Evenden, J. L. (1984). Judgements of act-outcome contingency: The role of selective attention.Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology,36A, 29–50.Google Scholar
  47. Ditto, P. H., &Lopez, D. F. (1992). Motivated skepticism: Use of differential decision criteria for preferred and nonpreferred conclusions.Journal of Personality & Social Psychology,63, 568–584.Google Scholar
  48. Doherty, M. E., Mynatt, C. R., Tweney, R. D., &Schiavo, M. D. (1979). Pseudodiagnosticity.Acta Psychologia,43, 111–121.Google Scholar
  49. Dominowski, R. L. (1972). Effects of solution familiarity and number of alternatives on problem difficulty.Journal of Experimental Psychology,95, 223–225.Google Scholar
  50. Dube-Rioux, L., &Russo, J. E. (1988). An availability bias in professional judgment.Journal of Behavioral Decision Making,1, 223–237.Google Scholar
  51. Duncan, S. L. (1976). Differential social perception and attribution of intergroup violence: Testing the lower limits of stereotyping of blacks.Journal of Personality & Social Psychology,34, 590–598.Google Scholar
  52. Dunning, D., Griffin, D. W., Milojkovic, J. D., &Ross, L. (1990). The overconfidence effect in social prediction.Journal of Personality & Social Psychology,58, 568–581.Google Scholar
  53. Eddy, D. M. (1982). Probabilistic reasoning in clinical medicine: Problems and opportunities. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.),Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 249–267). New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  54. Edwards, K., &Smith, E. E. (1996). A disconfirmation bias in the evaluation of arguments.Journal of Personality & Social Psychology,71, 5–24.Google Scholar
  55. Einhorn, H. J., &Hogarth, R. M. (1981). Behavioral decision theory: Processes of judgment and choice.Annual Review of Psychology,32, 53–88.Google Scholar
  56. Einhorn, H. J., &Hogarth, R. M. (1985). Ambiguity and uncertainty in probabilistic inference.Psychological Review,92, 433–461.Google Scholar
  57. Evett, S. R., Devine, P. G., Hirt, E. R., &Price, J. (1994). The role of the hypothesis and the evidence in the trait hypothesis testing process.Journal of Experimental Social Psychology,30, 456–481.Google Scholar
  58. Farris, H. H., &Revlin, R. (1989). Sensible reasoning in two tasks: Rule discovery and hypothesis evaluation.Memory & Cognition,17, 221–232.Google Scholar
  59. Fazio, R. H. (1990). Multiple processes by which attitudes guide behavior: The MODE model as an integrative framework. In M. P. Zanna (Ed.),Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 23, pp. 75–109). San Diego: Academic Press.Google Scholar
  60. Feather, N. T., &Simon, J. G. (1975). Reactions to male and female success and failure in sex-linked occupations: Impressions of personality, causal attributions, and perceived likelihood of different consequences.Journal of Personality & Social Psychology,50, 229–238.Google Scholar
  61. Fiedler, K. (1996). Explaining and simulating judgment biases as an aggregation phenomenon in probabilistic, multiple-cue environments.Psychological Review,103, 193–214.Google Scholar
  62. Fischhoff, B. (1975). Hindsight=foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty.Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception & Performance,1, 288–299.Google Scholar
  63. Fischhoff, B. (1977). Perceived informativeness of facts.Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception & Performance,3, 349–358.Google Scholar
  64. Fischhoff, B. (1982). Debiasing. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.),Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 422–444). New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  65. Fischhoff, B., &Beyth-Marom, R. (1983). Hypothesis evaluation from a Bayesian perspective.Psychological Review,90, 239–260.Google Scholar
  66. Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., &Lichtenstein, S. (1977). Knowing with certainty: The appropriateness of extreme confidence.Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception & Performance,3, 552–564.Google Scholar
  67. Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., &Lichtenstein, S. (1978). Fault trees: Sensitivity of estimated probability failures to problem representation.Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception & Performance,4, 330–344.Google Scholar
  68. Fiske, S. T., Neuberg, S. L., Beattie, A. E., &Milberg, S. J. (1987). Category-based and attribute-based reactions to others: Some informational conditions of stereotyping and individuating processes.Journal of Experimental Social Psychology,23, 399–427.Google Scholar
  69. Fiske, S. T., &Taylor, S. E. (1991).Social cognition (2nd ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
  70. Gettys, C. F., &Fisher, S. D. (1979). Hypothesis plausibility and hypothesis generation.Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes,24, 93–110.Google Scholar
  71. Gettys, C. F., Mehle, T., &Fisher, S. (1986). Plausibility assessments in hypothesis generation.Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes,37, 14–33.Google Scholar
  72. Gibson, B., Sanbonmatsu, D. M., &Posavac, S. S. (1997). Focal bias, probability overestimation, and gambling choice: The influence of biased hypothesis testing on subsequent judgment.Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied,3, 126–142.Google Scholar
  73. Gigerenzer, G. (1991). How to make cognitive illusions disappear: Beyond “heuristics and biases”.European Review of Social Psychology,2, 83–115.Google Scholar
  74. Gilbert, D. T. (1989). Thinking lightly about others: Automatic components of the social inference process. In J. S. Uleman & J. A. Bargh (Eds.),Unintended thought (pp. 189–211). New York: Guilford.Google Scholar
  75. Gilbert, D. T. (1991). How mental systems believe.American Psychologist,46, 107–119.Google Scholar
  76. Gilbert, D. T., &Malone, P. S. (1995). The correspondence bias.Psychological Bulletin,117, 21–38.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  77. Gilovich, T. K. (1983). Biased evaluation and persistence in gambling.Journal of Personality & Social Psychology,40, 797–808.Google Scholar
  78. Gluck, M. A., &Bower, G. H. (1988). From conditioning to category learning: An adaptive network model.Journal of Experimental Psychology: General,117, 227–247.Google Scholar
  79. Greenwald, A. G., Pratkanis, A. R., Leippe, M. R., &Baumgardner, M. H. (1986). Under what conditions does theory obstruct research progress?Psychological Review,93, 216–229.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  80. Grice, H. P. (1975). Logic and conversation. In P. Cole & J. L. Morgan (Eds.),Syntax and semantics: 3. Speech acts (pp. 41–58). New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar
  81. Griffin, D. W., &Ross, L. (1991). Subjective construal, social inference, and human misunderstanding. In M. P. Zanna (Ed.),Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 24, pp. 319–359). New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar
  82. Griffin, D., &Tversky, A. (1992). The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence.Cognitive Psychology,24, 411–435.Google Scholar
  83. Hamilton, D. L., &Rose, T. L. (1980). Illusory correlation and the maintenance of stereotypic beliefs.Journal of Personality & Social Psychology,39, 832–845.Google Scholar
  84. Hand, L. (1951). Morals in public life. InThe spirit of liberty: Papers and addresses of Learned Hand (pp. 225–252). New York: Knopf.Google Scholar
  85. Hansen, R. D. (1980). Commonsense attribution.Journal of Personality & Social Psychology,39, 996–1009.Google Scholar
  86. Hastie, R., &Kumar, P. A. (1979). Person memory: Personality traits as organizing principles in memory for behaviors.Journal of Personality & Social Psychology,37, 25–38.Google Scholar
  87. Hastie, R., &Park, B. (1986). The relationship between memory and judgment depends on whether the judgment task is memory-based or on-line.Psychological Review,93, 258–268.Google Scholar
  88. Hausman, J. A. (1993).Contingent valuation: A critical assessment. New York: Elsevier, North-Holland.Google Scholar
  89. Hawkins, S. A., &Hastie, R. (1990). Hindsight: Biased judgments of past events after outcomes are known.Psychological Bulletin,107, 311–327.Google Scholar
  90. Herr, P. M., Sherman, S. J., &Fazio, R. H. (1983). On the consequences of priming: Assimilation and contrast effects.Journal of Experimental Social Psychology,19, 323–340.Google Scholar
  91. Higgins, E. T., &Chaires, W. M. (1980). Accessibility of interrelational constructs: Implications for stimulus encoding and creativity.Journal of Experimental Social Psychology,16, 348–361.Google Scholar
  92. Higgins, E. T., Rholes, W. S., &Jones, C. R. (1977). Category accessibility and impression formation.Journal of Experimental Social Psychology,13, 141–154.Google Scholar
  93. Hirt, E. R., &Castellan, N. J., Jr. (1988). Probability and category redefinition in the fault tree paradigm.Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception & Performance,14, 122–131.Google Scholar
  94. Hirt, E. R., &Markman, K. D. (1995). Multiple explanation: A consider-an-alternative strategy for debiasing judgments.Journal of Personality & Social Psychology,69, 1069–1086.Google Scholar
  95. Hirt, E. R., &Sherman, S. J. (1985). The role of prior knowledge in explaining hypothetical events.Journal of Experimental Social Psychology,21, 519–543.Google Scholar
  96. Hoch, S. J. (1985). Counterfactual reasoning and accuracy in predicting personal events.Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, & Cognition,11, 719–731.Google Scholar
  97. Houston, D. A., Sherman, S. J., &Baker, S. M. (1989). The influence of unique features and direction of comparison on preferences.Journal of Experimental Social Psychology,25, 121–141.Google Scholar
  98. Jennings, D., Amabile, T. M., &Ross, L. (1982). Informal covariation assessment: Data-based vs. theory-based judgments. In A. Tversky, D. Kahneman, & P. Slovic (Eds.),Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 211–230). New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  99. Jones, E. E. (1979). The rocky road from acts to dispositions.American Psychologist,34, 107–117.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  100. Joshua, S. C., &Garber, N. J. (1992). A causal analysis of large vehicle accidents through fault-tree analysis.Risk Analysis,12, 173–187.Google Scholar
  101. Judd, C. M., &Lusk, C. M. (1984). Knowledge structures and evaluative judgments: Effects of structural variables on judgmental extremity.Journal of Personality & Social Psychology,46, 1193–1207.Google Scholar
  102. Just, M. A., &Carpenter, P. A. (1975). Comparative studies of comprehension: An investigation of Chinese, Norwegian, and English.Memory & Cognition,3, 465–473.Google Scholar
  103. Kahneman, D., &Knetsch, J. L. (1992). Valuing public goods: The purchase of moral satisfaction.Journal of Environmental Economics & Management,22, 57–70.Google Scholar
  104. Kahneman, D., &Tversky, A. (1973). On the psychology of prediction.Psychological Review,80, 237–251.Google Scholar
  105. Kahneman, D., &Tversky, A. (1982). Variants of uncertainty.Cognition,11, 143–157.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  106. Kamin, L. J. (1968). “Attention-like” processes in classical conditioning. In M. R. Jones (Ed.),Miami Symposium on the Prediction of Behavior, 1967: Aversive behavior (pp. 9–31). Coral Gables, FL: University of Miami Press.Google Scholar
  107. Kamin, L. J. (1969). Predictability, surprise, attention and conditioning. In B. A. Campbell & R. M. Church (Eds.),Punishment and aversive behavior (pp. 279–296). New York: Appleton-Century-Crofts.Google Scholar
  108. Kardes, F. R., &Sanbonmatsu, D. M. (1993). Direction of comparison, expected feature correlation, and the set-size effect in preference judgment.Journal of Consumer Psychology,2, 39–54.Google Scholar
  109. Kintsch, W., &Young, S. R. (1984). Selective recall of decision-relevant information from texts.Memory & Cognition,12, 112–117.Google Scholar
  110. Klar, Y. (1990). Linking structures and sensitivity to judgment relevant information in statistical and logical tasks.Journal of Personality & Social Psychology,59, 841–858.Google Scholar
  111. Klar, Y., Medding, A., &Sarel, D. (1996). Nonunique vulnerability: Singular versus distributional conceptions of probability and unrealistic optimism in personal risks judgments.Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes,67, 229–245.Google Scholar
  112. Klayman, J., &Ha, Y. (1987). Confirmation, disconfirmation, and information in hypothesis testing.Psychological Review,94, 211–228.Google Scholar
  113. Klayman, J., &Ha, Y. (1989). Hypothesis testing in rule discovery: Strategy, structure, and content.Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, & Cognition,15, 596–604.Google Scholar
  114. Koehler, D. J. (1991). Explanation, imagination, and confidence in judgment.Psychological Bulletin,110, 499–519.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  115. Koehler, D. J. (1994). Hypothesis generation and confidence in judgment.Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, & Cognition,20, 461–469.Google Scholar
  116. Koriat, A., Lichtenstein, S., &Fischhoff, B. (1980). Reasons for confidence.Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning & Memory,6, 107–118.Google Scholar
  117. Krosnick, J., &Alwin, D. F. (1987). An evaluation of a cognitive theory of response-order effects in survey measurement.Public Opinion Quarterly,51, 201–219.Google Scholar
  118. Kruglanski, A. W. (1989).Lay epistemics and human knowledge. New York: Plenum.Google Scholar
  119. Kruglanski, A. W, Schwartz, J. M., Maides, S., &Hamel, I. Z. (1978). Covariation, discounting, and augmentation: Towards a clarification of attributional principles.Journal of Personality,46, 176–189.Google Scholar
  120. Kruglanski, A. W., &Webster, D. M. (1996). Motivated closing of the mind: “Seizing” and “unfreezing.”Psychological Review,103, 263–283.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  121. Krull, D. S. (1993). Does the grist change the mill? The effect of the perceiver’s inferential goal on the process of social inference.Personality & Social Psychology Bulletin,19, 340–348.Google Scholar
  122. Kunda, Z. (1990). The case for motivated reasoning.Psychological Bulletin,108, 480–498.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  123. Laroche, M., &Brisoux, J. E. (1989). Incorporating competition into consumer behavior models: The case of the attitude-intention relationship.Journal of Economic Psychology,10, 343–362.Google Scholar
  124. Lehman, D. R., Krosnick, J. A., West, R. L., &Li, F. (1992). The focus of judgment effect: A question wording effect due to hypothesis confirmation bias.Personality & Social Psychology Bulletin,18, 690–699.Google Scholar
  125. Levin, I. P., &Gaeth, G. J. (1988). How consumers are affected by the framing of attribute information before and after consuming the product.Journal of Consumer Research,15, 374–378.Google Scholar
  126. Levine, M. (1966). Hypothesis behavior by humans during discrimination learning.Journal of Experimental Psychology,71, 331–338.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  127. Levine, M. (1970). Human discrimination learning: The subset-sampling assumption.Psychological Bulletin,74, 397–404.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  128. Lewicka, M. (1988). On objective and subjective anchoring of cognitive acts: How behavioural valence modifies reasoning schemata. In W. J. Baker, L. P. Mos, H. V. Rappard, & H. J. Stam (Eds.),Recent trends in theoretical psychology. New York: Springer-Verlag.Google Scholar
  129. Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B., &Phillips, L. D. (1982).Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.),Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 306–334). New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  130. Linville, P. W. (1982). The complexity-extremity effect and age-based stereotyping.Journal of Personality & Social Psychology,42, 193–211.Google Scholar
  131. Locksley, A., Ortiz, V., &Hepburn, C. (1980). Social categorization and discriminatory behavior: Extinguishing the minimal intergroup discrimination effect.Journal of Personality & Social Psychology,39, 773–783.Google Scholar
  132. Lopes, L. A. (1991). The rhetoric of irrationality.Theory & Psychology,1, 65–82.Google Scholar
  133. Lord, C. G., Lepper, M. R., &Preston, E. (1984). Considering the opposite: A corrective strategy for social judgment.Journal of Personality & Social Psychology,47, 1231–1243.Google Scholar
  134. Lord, C. G., Ross, L., &Lepper, M. R. (1979). Biased assimilation and attitude polarization: The effects of prior theories on subsequently considered evidence.Journal of Personality & Social Psychology,37, 2098–2109.Google Scholar
  135. Luchins, A. S. (1942). Mechanization in problem solving.Psychological Monographs,54, No. 248.Google Scholar
  136. Marr, D. (1982).Vision: A computational investigation into the human representation and processing of visual information. San Francisco: Freeman.Google Scholar
  137. McArthur, L. Z. (1981). What grabs you? The role of attention in impression formation and causal attribution. In E. T. Higgins, C. P. Herman, & M. P. Zanna (Eds.),Social cognition: The Ontario Symposium (Vol. 1, pp. 201–246). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.Google Scholar
  138. McKenzie, C. R. M. (1994). The accuracy of intuitive judgment strategies: Covariation assessment and Bayesian inference.Cognitive Psychology,26, 209–239.Google Scholar
  139. Medin, D. L., Goldstone, R. L., &Markman, A. B. (1995). Comparison and choice: Relations between similarity processes and decision processes.Psychonomic Bulletin & Review,2, 1–19.Google Scholar
  140. Mehle, T., Gettys, C. F., Manning, C., Baca, S., &Fisher, S. (1981). The availability explanation of excessive plausibility assessments.Acta Psychologica,49, 127–140.Google Scholar
  141. Millar, M. G., &Tesser, A. (1986). Thought-induced attitude change: The effects of schema structure and committment.Journal of Personality & Social Psychology,51, 259–269.Google Scholar
  142. Millward, R. B., &Spoehr, K. T. (1973). The direst measurement of hypothesis-testing strategies.Cognitive Psychology,4, 1–38.Google Scholar
  143. Mitchell, R. C., &Carson, R. T. (Eds.) (1989).Using surveys to value public goods. Washington, DC: Resources for the Future.Google Scholar
  144. Mynatt, C. R., Doherty, M. E., &Tweney, R. D. (1977). Confirmation bias is a simulated research environment: An experimental study of scientific inference.Quarterly Journal of Experimenal Psychology,29, 85–95.Google Scholar
  145. Neisser, U. (1967).Cognitive psychology. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.Google Scholar
  146. Newcomb, T. M. (1929).The consistency of certain extrovert-introvert behavior patterns in 51 problem boys. New York: Columbia University, Teachers College, Bureau of Publications.Google Scholar
  147. Nisbett, R., &Ross, L. (1980).Human inference: Strategies and shortcomings of social judgment. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.Google Scholar
  148. Norman, R. (1976). When what is said is important: A comparison of expert and attractive sources.Journal of Experimental Social Psychology,12, 294–300.Google Scholar
  149. Oskamp, S. (1982). Overconfidence in case-study judgments. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.),Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 287–293). New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  150. Payne, J.W., Bettman, J. R., &Johnson, E. J. (1992). Behavioral decision research: A constructive processing perspective.Annual Review of Psychology,43, 87–131.Google Scholar
  151. Petty, R. E., &Cacioppo, J. T. (1979). Issue involvement can increase or decrease persuasion by enhancing message-relevant cognitive responses.Journal of Personality & Social Psychology,37, 1915–1926.Google Scholar
  152. Petty, R. E., &Cacioppo, J. T. (1986). The elaboration likelihood model of persuasion. In L. Berkowitz (Ed.),Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 19, pp. 123–205). San Diego: Academic Press.Google Scholar
  153. Platt, J. R. (1964). Strong inference.Science,146, 347–353.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  154. Posavac, S. S., Sanbonmatsu, D. M., &Fazio, R. H. (1997). Considering the best choice: Effects of the salience and accessibility of alternatives on attitude-decision consistency.Journal of Personality & Social Psychology,72, 253–261.Google Scholar
  155. Price, P. C., &Yates, J. F. (1993). Judgmental overshadowing: Further evidence of cue interaction in contingency judgment.Memory & Cognition,21, 561–572.Google Scholar
  156. Price, P. C., &Yates, J. F. (1995). Associative and rule-based accounts of cue interaction in contingency judgment.Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, & Cognition,21, 1639–1655.Google Scholar
  157. Pyszczynski, T. A., &Greenberg, J. (1987). Toward an integration of cognitive and motivational perspectives on social inference: A biased hypothesis testing model. In M. P. Zanna (Ed.),Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 20, pp. 297–340). New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar
  158. Quattrone, G. A. (1982). Overattribution and unit formation: When behavior engulfs the person.Journal of Personality & Social Psychology,42, 593–607.Google Scholar
  159. Read, S. J., Vanman, E. J., &Miller, L. C. (1997). Connectionism, parallel constraint satisfaction processes, and Gestalt principles: (Re)introducing cognitive dynamics to social psychology.Personality & Social Psychology Review,1, 26–53.Google Scholar
  160. Restle, F. (1962). The selection of strategies in cue learning.Psychological Review,69, 329–343.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  161. Robinson, L. B., &Hastie, R. (1985). Revision of beliefs when a hypothesis is eliminated from consideration.Journal of Experimental Psychology,11, 443–456.Google Scholar
  162. Ross, L. (1977). The intuitive psychologist and his shortcomings: Distortions in the attribution process. In L. Berkowitz (Ed.),Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 10, pp. 174–221). New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar
  163. Rothbart, M., Evans, M., &Fulero, S. (1979). Recall for confirming events: Memory processes and the maintenance of social stereotyping.Journal of Experimental Social Psychology,15, 343–355.Google Scholar
  164. Rundus, D. (1973). Negative effects of using list items as recall cues.Journal of Verbal Learning & Verbal Behavior,12, 43–50.Google Scholar
  165. Russo, J. E., &Dosher, B. A. (1983). Strategies for multiattribute binary choice.Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, & Cognition,9, 676–696.Google Scholar
  166. Russo, J. E., &Kolzow, K. J. (1994). Where is the fault in fault trees?Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception & Performance,20, 17–32.Google Scholar
  167. Sadler, O., &Tesser, A. (1973). Some effects of salience and time upon interpersonal hostility and attraction during social isolation.Sociometry,36, 99–112.Google Scholar
  168. Samples, K. C., &Hollier, J. R. (1990). Contingent valuation of wildlife resources in the presence of substitutes and complements. In R. L. Johnson & G. V. Johnson (Eds.),Economic valuation of natural resources: Issues, theory and applications (pp. 177–192). Boulder, CO: Westview.Google Scholar
  169. Sanbonmatsu, D. M., Akimoto, S. A., &Biggs, E. (1993). Overestimating causality: Attributional effects of confirmatory processing.Journal of Personality & Social Psychology,65, 892–903.Google Scholar
  170. Sanbonmatsu, D. M., Akimoto, S. A., &Gibson, B. D. (1994). Stereotype-based blocking in social explanation.Personality & Social Psychology Bulletin,20, 71–81.Google Scholar
  171. Sanbonmatsu, D. M.,Kardes, F. R.,Houghton, D. C.,Ho, E. A., &Posavac, S. S. (1998).Overweighing the given information in multiattribute judgment. Manuscript submitted for publication.Google Scholar
  172. Sanbonmatsu, D. M., Posavac, S. S., &Stasney, R. (1997). The subjective beliefs underlying probability overestimation.Journal of Experimental Social Psychology,33, 276–295.Google Scholar
  173. Schkade, D. A., &Payne, J. W. (1993). Where do the numbers come from? How people respond to CV questions. In J. A. Hausman (Ed.),Contingent valuation: A critical assessment. New York: Elsevier, North-Holland.Google Scholar
  174. Schuman, H., &Presser, S. (1981).Questions and answers in attitude surveys. New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar
  175. Schustack, M.W., &Sternberg, R. J. (1981). Evaluation of evidence in causal inference.Journal of Experimental Psychology: General,110, 101–120.Google Scholar
  176. Schwartz, B. (1982). Reinforcement-induced behavioral stereotypy: How not to teach people to discover rules.Journal of Experimental Psychology: General,111, 23–59.Google Scholar
  177. Shafir, E. (1993). Choosing versus rejecting: Why some options are both better and worse than others.Memory & Cognition,21, 546–556.Google Scholar
  178. Shaklee, H., &Fischhoff, B. (1982). Strategies of information search in causal analysis.Memory & Cognition,10, 520–530.Google Scholar
  179. Shaklee, H., &Mims, M. (1982). Sources of error in judging event covariations: Effects of memory demands.Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, & Cognition,8, 208–224.Google Scholar
  180. Sherman, S. J., &Corty, E. (1984). Cognitive heuristics. In R. S. Wyer, Jr., & T. K. Srull (Eds.),Handbook of social cognition (Vol. 1, pp. 189–286). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.Google Scholar
  181. Sherman, S. J., McMullen, M. N., &Gavanski, I. (1992). Natural sample spaces and the inversion of conditional judgments.Journal of Experimental Social Psychology,28, 401–421.Google Scholar
  182. Sherman, S. J., Skov, R. B., Hervitz, E. F., &Stock, C. B. (1981). The effects of explaining hypothetical future events: From possibility to probability to actuality and beyond.Journal of Experimental Social Psychology,17, 142–158.Google Scholar
  183. Shweder, R. A. (1977). Likeness and likelihood in everyday thought: Magical thinking in judgments about personality.Current Anthropology,18, 637–658.Google Scholar
  184. Shweder, R. A., &D’Andrade, R. G. (1979). Accurate reflection or systematic distortion? A reply to Block, Weiss, and Thorne.Journal of Personality & Social Psychology,37, 1075–1084.Google Scholar
  185. Simon, H. A. (1956). Rational choice and the structure of the environment.Psychological Review,63, 129–138.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  186. Simon, H. A. (1979). Rational decision making in business organizations.American Economic Review,69, 493–513.Google Scholar
  187. Skov, R. B., &Sherman, S. J. (1986). Information-gathering processes: Diagnosticity, hypothesis-confirmatory strategies, and perceived hypothesis confirmation.Journal of Experimental Social Psychology,22, 93–121.Google Scholar
  188. Slovic, P., Lichtenstein, S., &Fischhoff, B. (1985). Decision making. In R. C. Atkinson, R. J. Hernstein, G. D. Lindzey, & R. D. Luce (Eds.),Handbook of experimental psychology (Vol. 2, pp. 673–738). New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
  189. Smedslund, J. (1963). The concept of correlation in adults.Scandinavian Journal of Psychology,4, 165–173.Google Scholar
  190. Snyder, M. (1981). Seek, and ye shall find: Testing hypotheses about other people. In E. T. Higgins, C. P. Herman, & M. P. Zanna (Eds.),Social cognition: The Ontario Symposium (Vol. 1, pp. 277–303). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.Google Scholar
  191. Snyder, M., &Swann, W. B. (1978). Behavioral confirmation in social interaction: From social perception to social reality.Journal of Experimental Social Psychology,14, 148–162.Google Scholar
  192. Srull, T. K. (1981). Person memory: Some tests of associative storage and retrieval models.Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning & Memory,7, 440–462.Google Scholar
  193. Srull, T. K., &Wyer, R. S. (1979). The role of category accessibility in the interpretation of information about persons: Some determinants and implications.Journal of Personality & Social Psychology,37, 1660–1672.Google Scholar
  194. Stangor, C., &McMillan, D. (1992). Memory for expectancy congruent and expectancy incongruent information: A review of the social and social developmental issues.Psychological Bulletin,111, 42–61.Google Scholar
  195. Strack, F., &Mussweiler, T. (1997). Explaining the enigmatic anchoring effect: Mechanisms of selective accessibility.Journal of Personality & Social Psychology,73, 437–446.Google Scholar
  196. Strack, F., Schwarz, N., &Wanke, M. (1991). Semantic and pragmatic aspects of context effect in social and psychological research.Social Cognition,9, 111–125.Google Scholar
  197. Taplin, J. E. (1975). Evaluation of hypotheses in concept identification.Memory & Cognition,3, 85–96.Google Scholar
  198. Taylor, S. E., &Fiske, S. T. (1978). Salience, attention, and attribution: Top of the head phenomena. In L. Berkowitz (Ed.),Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 11, pp. 249–288). New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar
  199. Teigen, K. H. (1974a). Overestimation of subjective probabilities.Scandinavian Journal of Psychology,15, 56–62.Google Scholar
  200. Teigen, K. H. (1974b). Subjective sampling distributions and the additivity of estimates.Scandinavian Journal of Psychology,15, 50–55.Google Scholar
  201. Teigen, K. H. (1983). Studies in subjective probability III: The unimportance of alternatives.Scandinavian Journal of Psychology,24, 97–195.Google Scholar
  202. Tesser, A. (1978). Self-generated attitude change. In L. Berkowitz (Ed.),Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 11, pp. 1–57). New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar
  203. Trabasso, T., &Bower, G. H. (1968).Attention in learning: Theory and research. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
  204. Trope, Y. (1986). Identification and inferential processes in dispositional attribution.Psychological Review,93, 239–257.Google Scholar
  205. Trope, Y., &Bassok, M. (1983). Information gathering strategies in hypothesis testing.Journal of Experimental Social Psychology,19, 560–576.Google Scholar
  206. Trope, Y., Bassok, M., &Alon, E. (1984). The questions lay interviewers ask.Journal of Personality,52, 90–106.Google Scholar
  207. Trope, Y., &Liberman, A. (1996). Social hypothesis testing: Cognitive and motivational mechanisms. In E. T. Higgins & A. W. Kruglanski (Eds.),Social psychology: Handbook of basic principles (pp. 239–270). New York: Guilford.Google Scholar
  208. Trope, Y., &Mackie, D. M. (1987). Sensitivity to alternatives in social hypothesis testing.Journal of Experimental Social Psychology,23, 445–459.Google Scholar
  209. Tversky, A. (1977). Features of similarity.Psychological Review,84, 327–353.Google Scholar
  210. Tversky, A., &Kahneman, D. (1973). Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability.Cognitive Psychology,5, 207–232.Google Scholar
  211. Tversky, A., &Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases.Science,221, 453–458.Google Scholar
  212. Tversky, A., &Kahneman, D. (1981). The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice.Science,211, 453–458.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  213. Tversky, A., &Kahneman, D. (1992). Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty.Journal of Risk & Uncertainty,5, 297–323.Google Scholar
  214. Tversky, A., &Koehler, D. J. (1994). Support theory: A nonextensional representation of subjective probability.Psychological Review,101, 547–567.Google Scholar
  215. Tweney, R. D., &Doherty, M. E. (1983). Rationality and the psychology of inference.Synthèse,57, 139–161.Google Scholar
  216. Tweney, R. D., Doherty, M. E., Worner, W. J., Pliske, D. B., Mynatt, C. R., Gross, K. A., &Arkkelin, D. L. (1980). Strategies of rule discovery in an inference task.Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology,32, 109–123.Google Scholar
  217. Vallone, R. P., Griffin, D.W., Lin, S., &Ross, L. (1990). Overconfident prediction of future actions and outcomes by self and others.Journal of Personality & Social Psychology,58, 582–592.Google Scholar
  218. Vallone, R. P., Ross, L., &Lepper, M. R. (1985). The hostile media phenomenon: Biased perception and perceptions of media bias in coverage of the Beirut massacre.Journal of Personality & Social Psychology,49, 577–585.Google Scholar
  219. Van der Plight, J., Eiser, J. R., Ŝpears, R. (1987). Comparative judgements and preferences: The influence of the number of response alternatives.British Journal of Social Psychology,26, 269–280.Google Scholar
  220. Van Wallendael, L. R., Ĥastie, R. (1990). Tracing the footsteps of Sherlock Holmes: Cognitive representations of hypothesis testing.Memory & Cognition,18, 240–250.Google Scholar
  221. von Hippel, W., Jonides, J., Hilton, J. L., &Narayan, S. (1993). Inhibitory effect of schematic processing on perceptual encoding.Journal of Personality & Social Psychology,64, 921–935.Google Scholar
  222. von Hippel, W., Sekaquaptewa, D., &Vargas, P. (1995). On the role of encoding processes in stereotype maintenance. In M. P. Zanna (Ed.),Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 27, pp. 177–254). San Diego: Academic Press.Google Scholar
  223. von Neumann, J., &Morgenstern, O. (1947).Theory of games and economic behavior. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
  224. Ward, W. D., &Jenkins, H. M. (1965). The display of information and the judgment of contingency.Canadian Journal of Psychology,19, 231–241.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  225. Wason, P. C. (1960). On the failure to eliminate hypotheses in a conceptual task.Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology,12, 129–140.Google Scholar
  226. Wason, P. C. (1968). Reasoning about a rule.Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology,23, 273–281.Google Scholar
  227. Wasserman, E. A., Dorner, W.W., &Kao, S. F. (1990). Contributions of specific cell information to judgments of interevent contingency.Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, & Cognition,16, 509–521.Google Scholar
  228. Yzerbyt, V. Y., Schandron, G., Leyens, J. P., &Rocher, S. (1994). Social judgeability: The impact of meta-informational cues on the use of stereotypes.Journal of Personality & Social Psychology,66, 48–55.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Psychonomic Society, Inc. 1998

Authors and Affiliations

  • David M. Sanbonmatsu
    • 1
    Email author
  • Steven S. Posavac
    • 1
  • Frank R. Kardes
    • 2
  • Susan P. Mantel
    • 3
  1. 1.Department of PsychologyUniversity of UtahSalt Lake City
  2. 2.University of CincinnatiCincinnati
  3. 3.University of ToledoToledo

Personalised recommendations