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Projected Changes in Rare Precipitation Extremes: Results of Regional Climate Modeling for the Territory of Russia

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Abstract

The problem is considered of estimating expected climatic changes over the territory of Russia in relation to the characteristics of rare precipitation extremes, which are widely used in designing various structures and technical systems. Based on numerous ensemble experiments with a high-resolution regional climate model and the extreme value modeling approach, future changes in the intensity and frequency of rare extremes for seasonal and annual 1- and 5-day precipitation maxima are analyzed. Particular attention is paid to the uncertainty of the projections on various timescales. Important spatial peculiarities of changes in the analyzed rare precipitation extremes are identified, which is reasonable to take into account when adapting to climate change at the regional level.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, 194021, St. Petersburg, Russia

    E. I. Khlebnikova, I. M. Shkolnik & Yu. L. Rudakova

Authors
  1. E. I. Khlebnikova
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  2. I. M. Shkolnik
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  3. Yu. L. Rudakova
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Correspondence to E. I. Khlebnikova.

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Translated from Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya, 2022, No. 5, pp. 42-53. https://doi.org/10.52002/0130-2906-2022-5-42-53.

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Khlebnikova, E.I., Shkolnik, I.M. & Rudakova, Y.L. Projected Changes in Rare Precipitation Extremes: Results of Regional Climate Modeling for the Territory of Russia. Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol. 47, 355–362 (2022). https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373922050041

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