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Operational Forecasting of Short-term Changes in the Level of the Sea of Azov with Seasonal Correction Based on Coastal Station Observations

Abstract

Short-range forecasts of variations in the level of the Sea of Azov with a lead time of 48 hours are computed with a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model (a grid spacing is 0.5 nautical miles) twice a day at 00:00 and 12:00 using wind speed and air pressure fields on the sea surface from the COSMO model (a grid spacing is 7 km). To eliminate differences between the sea-level simulations and observations, a correction is introduced, that is defined as a difference in the mean level of the Sea of Azov according to observations at coastal stations and model simulations. After introducing the correction of the mean level of the Sea of Azov in the automatic mode, the operational model simulates not only surges but also seasonal sea level variations, for example, a gradual sea level drop in May–December 2020.

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Popov, S.K. Operational Forecasting of Short-term Changes in the Level of the Sea of Azov with Seasonal Correction Based on Coastal Station Observations. Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol. 47, 23–31 (2022). https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373922010034

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373922010034

Keywords

  • Sea of Azov
  • sea level
  • forecasts
  • numerical hydrodynamic model
  • seasonal variations
  • correction
  • upsurge
  • downsurge
  • absolute error
  • accuracy
  • correlation coefficient