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Effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the Characteristics of Two Types of El Niño under Possible Climate Change

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Abstract

The effect of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase on the intensity and localization of anomalies in sea surface temperature and meteorological parameters associated with two types of El Niño is analyzed. The analysis is based on reanalysis and CMIP5 model data for modern and future climate (RCP 8.5 scenario). It is found that El Niño does not exhibit robust intensification during the positive PDO phase, as mentioned in the previous studies, but the PDO influence is highly dependent on the El Niño type. The canonical El Niño is intensified during the positive PDO phase, while, on the contrary, El Niño Modoki weakens. In future climate the interaction between PDO and El Niño is modified, but the significant intermodel spread does not allow an unambiguous determination of trends.

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Funding

The research was performed in the framework of the Governmental Assignment theme АААА-А16-116032810086-4 and was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grant 18-05-00767).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Lomonosov Moscow State University, 119991, Moscow, Russia

    D. Yu. Gushchina & M. V. Kalinovskaya

  2. Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, 119017, Moscow, Russia

    T. A. Matveeva

Authors
  1. D. Yu. Gushchina
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  2. M. V. Kalinovskaya
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  3. T. A. Matveeva
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Correspondence to D. Yu. Gushchina.

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Russian Text ©The Author(s), 2020, published in Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya, 2020, No. 10, pp. 14-28.

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Gushchina, D.Y., Kalinovskaya, M.V. & Matveeva, T.A. Effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the Characteristics of Two Types of El Niño under Possible Climate Change. Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol. 45, 683–693 (2020). https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373920100027

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