Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Changes in Seasonal Air Temperature Extremes in Moscow and the Central Regions of European Russia

  • Published:
Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

For Moscow and the territory including some regions in the center of European Russia, changes in the following indices characterizing temperature extremes are analyzed: the seasonal number of days with temperature above the 90th percentile and below the 10th percentile, the seasonal duration of heat waves and cold waves, and the magnitude of the largest anomalies in a season (5th and 95th percentiles of average daily temperatures of the season). The long-period changes accompanying the modern warming are analyzed, as well as their features related to the decadal oscillations in the Atlantic-European circulation systems. In view of this, as well as of the issue of formation conditions for significant seasonal anomalies, the connection between the indices of extremes and the circulation indices is considered and described. To assess the impact of the Moscow heat island on the extreme temperature statistics, the estimates are obtained for Moscow and for the station of Mozhaisk located close to Moscow but out of the heat island impact area.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 4.

Similar content being viewed by others

REFERENCES

  1. M. Yu. Bardin, “Anticyclonic Quasi-stationary Circulation and Its Effect on Air Temperature Anomalies and Extremes over Western Russia,” Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 2 (2007) [Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., No. 2, 32 (2007)].

  2. M. Yu. Bardin, “Scenary Forecasts of Air Temperature Variations for the Regions of the Russian Federation up to 2030 Using the Empirical Stochastic Climate Models,” Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 4 (2011) [Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., No. 4, 36 (2011)].

  3. M. Yu. Bardin, O. N. Bulygina, and T. V. Platova, “Climate Extremity,” in Second Roshydromet Assessment Report on Climate Change and Its Consequences in Russian Federation (Roshydromet, Moscow, 2014) [in Russian].

  4. M. Yu. Bardin and T. V. Platova, “Long-period Variations in Extreme Temperature Statistics in Russia as Linked to the Changes in Large-scale Atmospheric Circulation and Global Warming,” Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 12 (2019) [Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., No. 12, 44 (2019)].

  5. M. Yu. Bardin, T. V. Platova, and O. F. Samokhina, “Variability of Anticyclonic Activity in the Northern Extratropics,” Fundamental’naya i Prikladnaya Klimatologiya, No. 3 (2019) [in Russian].

  6. M. Yu. Bardin, T. V. Platova, and O. F. Samokhina, “Features of Climate Change Characteristics on the Territory of Northern Eurasia Based on the Routine Climate Monitoring and Possible Factors,” Trudy Gidromettsentra Rossii, No. 358 (2015) [in Russian].

  7. O. N. Bulygina, V. N. Razuvaev, and T. M. Aleksandrova, Description of the Dataset of Daily Air Temperature and Precipitation for Weather Stations of Russia and the Former USSR (TTTR); http://meteo.ru/data/162-temperature-precipitation#описание-массива-данных [in Russian].

  8. V. V. Vinogradova, “Winter Cold Waves in Russia from the Second Half of the 20th Century,” Izv. Akad. Nauk, Geografiya, No. 3 (2018) [in Russian].

  9. Second Roshydromet Assessment Report on Climate Change and Its Consequences in Russian Federation, Ed. by V. M. Kattsov and S. M. Semenov (Roshydromet, Moscow, 2014) [in Russian].

  10. G. V. Gruza and E. Ya. Ran’kova, “Estimation of Probable Contribution of Global Warming to the Genesis of Abnormally Hot Summers in the European Part of Russia,” Izv. Akad. Nauk, Fiz. Atmos. Okeana, No. 6, 47 (2011) [Izv., Atmos. Oceanic Phys., No. 6, 47 (2011)].

  11. Report on Climate Features in the Russian Federation in 2019 (Roshydromet, Moscow, 2020) [in Russian].

  12. A. L. Kats, The Unusual Summer of 1972 (Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 1973) [in Russian].

  13. D. B. Kiktev, D. M. H. Sexton, L. V. Alexander, and C. K. Folland, “Trends in Fields of Precipitation and Surface Temperature Annual Extremes during the Second Half of the 20th Century,” Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 11 (2002) [Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., No. 11 (2002)].

  14. D. E. Knuth,The Art of Computer Programming, Vol. 2:Seminumerical Algorithms (Williams, Moscow, 2000) [Transl. from English].

  15. O. Yu. Kovalenko, M. Yu. Bardin, and E. N. Voskresenskaya, “Changes in Extreme Air Temperature Characteristics in the Black Sea Region and Their Interannual Variability Linked to Large-scale Climatic Processes,” Fundamental’naya i Prikladnaya Klimatologiya, No. 2 (2017) [in Russian].

  16. M. A. Lokoshchenko and E. A. Sorokina, “Surface Urban “Heat Island” in Moscow by Satellite Data,” Vestnik Mezhdunarodnogo Universiteta Prirody, Obshchestva i Cheloveka “Dubna,” Ser.: Estestvennye i Inzhenernye Nauki, No. 1 (2017) [in Russian].

  17. I. I. Mokhov and V. A. Semenov, “Weather and Climate Anomalies in Russian Regions Related to Global Climate Change,” Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 2 (2016) [Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., No. 2, 41 (2016)].

  18. A. M. Obukhov, M. V. Kurganskii, and M. S. Tatarskaya, “Dynamic Conditions of the Origin of Droughts and Other Large-scale Weather Anomalies,” Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 10 (1984) [Sov. Meteorol. Hydrol., No. 10 (1984)].

  19. T. V. Platova, “Climatic Characteristics of Some Parameters of Surface Air Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Russia,” Byulleten’ “Ispol’zovanie i Okhrana Prirodnykh Resursov v Rossii”, No. 1 (2007) [in Russian].

  20. V. V. Popova, “Modern Climate Change in Northern Eurasia as a Manifestation of Variations in Large-scale Atmospheric Circulation,” Fundamental’naya i Prikladnaya Klimatologiya, No. 1 (2018) [in Russian].

  21. V. V. Popova and A. B. Shmakin, “Regional Structure of Surface-air Temperature Fluctuations in Northern Eurasia in the Latter Half of the 20th and Early 21st Centuries,” Izv. Akad. Nauk, Fiz. Atmos. Okeana, No. 2,46 (2010) [Izv., Atmos. Oceanic Phys., No. 2,46 (2010)].

  22. V. A. Semenov, “Link between Anomalously Cold Winters in Russia and Sea-ice Decline in the Barents Sea,” Izv. Akad. Nauk, Fiz. Atmos. Okeana, No. 3,52 (2016) [Izv., Atmos. Oceanic Phys., No. 3,52 (2016)].

  23. E. A. Cherenkova, M. Yu. Bardin, T. V. Platova, and V. A. Semenov, “The Effect of Long-period Variability of Sea Surface Temperature in the North Atlantic and Atmospheric Circulation Changes on the Formation of Severe Atmospheric Droughts in the South of the East European Plain in Summer,” Meteorol. Gidrol. [in press].

  24. L. V. Alexander, X. Zhang, T. C. Peterson, J. Caesar, B. Gleason, A. M. G. Klein Tank, M. Haylock, D. Collins, B. Trewin, F. Rahimzadeh, A. Tagipour, K. Rupa Kumar, J. Revadekar, G. Griffiths, L. Vincent, D. B. Stephenson, J. Burn, E. Aguilar, M. Brunet, M. Taylor, M. New, P. Zhai, M. Rusticucci, and J. L. Vazquez-Aguirre, “Global Observed Changes in Daily Climate Extremes of Temperature and Precipitation,” J. Geophys. Res., 111 (2006).

  25. A. G. Barnston and R. E. Livezey, “Classification, Seasonality and Persistence of Low-frequency Atmospheric Circulation Patterns,” Mon. Wea. Rev.,115 (1987).

  26. O. N. Bulygina, V. N. Razuvaev, N. N. Korshunova, and P. Ya. Groisman, “Climate Variations and Changes in Extreme Climate Events in Russia,” Environ. Res. Lett., No. 4, 2 (2007).

  27. J. Caesar, L. Alexander, and R. Vose, “Large-scale Changes in Observed Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperatures: Creation and Analysis of a New Gridded Data Set,” J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 111 (2006).

  28. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Ed. by J. T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C. A. Johnson (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2001).

  29. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Ed. by S. Solomon, D. Manning, M. Qin, M. Marquis, K. Averyt, M. M. B. Tignor, H. LeRoy Miller Jr., and Z. Chen (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2007).

  30. M. G. Donat, L. V. Alexander, H. Yang, I. Durre, R. Vose, R. J. H. Dunn, K. M. Willett, E. Aguilar, M. Brunet, J. Caesar, B. Hewitson, C. Jack, A. M. G. Klein Tank, A. C. Kruger, J. Marengo, T. C. Peterson, M. Renom, C. Oria Rojas, M. Rusticucci, J. Salinger, A. S. Elrayah, S. S. Sekele, A. K. Srivastava, B. Trewin, C. Villarroel, L. A. Vincent, P. Zhai, X. Zhang, and S. Kitching, “Updated Analyses of Temperature and Precipitation Extreme Indices since the Beginning of the Twentieth Century: The HadEX2 Dataset,” J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.,118 (2013).

  31. M. G. Donat, L. V. Alexander, H. Yang, I. Durre, R. Vose, and J. Caesar, “Global Land-based Datasets for Monitoring Climatic Extremes,” Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 94 (2013).

  32. P. Frich, L. V. Alexander, P. Della-Marta, B. Gleason, M. Haylock, A. M. G. Klein Tank, and T. Peterson, “Observed Coherent Changes in Climatic Extremes during the Second Half of the Twentieth Century,” Climate Res.,19 (2002).

  33. J. W. Hurrell, “Decadal Trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional Temperatures and Precipitation,” Science, 269 (1995).

  34. IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Ed. by T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, and P. M. Midgley (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA).

  35. M. A. Lokoshchenko, “Urban “Heat Island” in Moscow,” Urban Climate,10 (2014).

  36. G. A. Meehl, J. M. Arblaster, and G. Branstator, “Mechanisms Contributing to the Warming Hole and the Consequent U.S. East–West Differential of Heat Extremes,” J. Climate, 25 (2012).

  37. S. E. Perkins, L. V. Alexander, and J. R. Nairn, “Increasing Frequency, Intensity and Duration of Observed Global Heatwaves and Warm Spells,” Geophys. Res. Lett., 39 (2012).

  38. M. M. Skansi, M. Brunet, J. Sigro, E. M. Aguilar, J. A. A. Groening, O. Bentancur, Y. R. C. Geier, R. L. C. Amaya, H. Jacome, A. M. Ramos, C. O. Rojas, A. M. Pasten, S. S. Mitro, C. Jimenez, R. Martinez, L. V. Alexander, and P. D. Jones, “Warming and Wetting Signals Emerging from Analysis of Changes in Climate Extreme Indices over South America,” Global Planet. Change, 100 (2013).

  39. J. M. Wallace, Y. Zhang, and L. Bajuk, “Interpretation of Interdecadal Trends in Northern Hemisphere Surface Air Temperature,” J. Climate, 9 (1996).

  40. X. Zhang, G. Hegerl, F. W. Zwiers, and J. Kenyon, “Avoiding Inhomogeneity in Percentile-based Indices of Temperature Extremes,” J. Climate,18 (2005).

Download references

Funding

The research was supported by the following programs and grants: Roshydromet (theme 3.2 “Monitoring of Global Climate and Climate in the Russian Federation and Its Regions, Including the Arctic. Development and Modernization of Monitoring Technologies” of the Research and Development Plan for 2020–2024 approved by the Order No. 745 on December 31, 2019); Russian Science Foundation (grant 19-17-00242 “Weather and Climate Hazards on the Territory of Russia under Global Climate Change”); Program of Fundamental Scientific Research of the State Academies of Sciences for 2013–2020, Section 9 “Earth Sciences,” Subsection 135 “Physical and Chemical Processes in the Atmosphere, Including the Ionosphere and Magnetosphere of the Earth, in the Cryosphere and on the Earth Surface, Formation Mechanisms and Modern Changes in Climate, Landscapes, Glaciation, and Permafrost” (performing fundamental research on the theme 0148-2018-0006 “Solving Fundamental Problems of Analysis and Prediction of the State of the Terrestrial Climate System”).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Izrael Institute of Global Climate and Ecology, 107258, Moscow, Russia

    M. Yu. Bardin & T. V. Platova

  2. Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, 119017, Moscow, Russia

    M. Yu. Bardin

  3. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, 119017, Moscow, Russia

    M. Yu. Bardin

Authors
  1. M. Yu. Bardin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. T. V. Platova
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to M. Yu. Bardin.

Additional information

Russian Text ©The Author(s), 2020, published in Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya, 2020, No. 7, pp. 20-35.

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Bardin, M.Y., Platova, T.V. Changes in Seasonal Air Temperature Extremes in Moscow and the Central Regions of European Russia . Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol. 45, 466–477 (2020). https://doi.org/10.3103/S106837392007002X

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S106837392007002X

Keywords

Search

Navigation