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Statistical Model for Assessing the Formation of Climate-related Hazards Based on Climate Monitoring Data

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Abstract

A statistical model for the formation of climate-related hazards is proposed. The formation is described by several meteorological variables or applied climatic indices characterizing a calendar year. Their values or data for their calculation are provided by climate monitoring systems. A climate-related hazard arises when these variables or applied climate indices together go beyond their safe ranges over substantial number of several consecutive years. Respective minimum values for the number of such years are substantiated for different levels of the likelihood of occurrence of a climate-related hazard. The developed methodology was applied to obtain probabilistic estimates of the climatic range of the tick Ixodes ricinus (Linnaeus, 1758), a vector of dangerous human diseases, and its changes in 2001–2010 as compared to 1971–1980. The results are presented in the form of schematic maps.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Izrael Institute of Global Climate and Ecology, 107258, Moscow, Russia

    S. M. Semenov, I. O. Popov & V. V. Yasyukevich

  2. Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, 119017, Moscow, Russia

    S. M. Semenov

  3. National Research University “Higher School of Economics”, 101000, Moscow, Russia

    S. M. Semenov

Authors
  1. S. M. Semenov
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  2. I. O. Popov
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  3. V. V. Yasyukevich
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to S. M. Semenov.

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Russian Text ©The Author(s), 2020, published in Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya, 2020, No. 5, pp. 59–65.

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Semenov, S.M., Popov, I.O. & Yasyukevich, V.V. Statistical Model for Assessing the Formation of Climate-related Hazards Based on Climate Monitoring Data. Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol. 45, 339–344 (2020). https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373920050040

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373920050040

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