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Probabilistic Regional Climate Projecting as a Basis for the Development of Adaptation Programs for the Economy of the Russian Federation

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Abstract

The feasibility of applying probabilistic regional climate projection approach for mass ensemble simulations at the 25-km resolution across Russia is considered. Major attention is paid to the analysis of future changes in climate indicators of temperature and precipitation conditions, which significantly affect the operation reliability of constructions and technical systems including transport and energy infrastructure facilities. Along with the mean estimates, we used the frequency criteria which allow quantifying the estimates of return periods for various-intensity extreme events in the middle and end of the 21st century. The results of the study may be considered as an information basis for the development of adaptation programs for the Russian economy.

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The authors deeply thank the administration and specialists of the Roshydromet Main Computing Center for assistance in performing some numerical experiments on the supercomputer in the framework of the present study.

Funding

The research was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (grant 16-17-00063).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory , 194021, St. Petersburg, Russia

    V. M. Kattsov, E. I. Khlebnikova, I. M. Shkolnik & Yu. L. Rudakova

Authors
  1. V. M. Kattsov
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  2. E. I. Khlebnikova
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  3. I. M. Shkolnik
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  4. Yu. L. Rudakova
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to E. I. Khlebnikova.

Additional information

Russian Text ©The Author(s), 2020, published in Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya, 2020, No. 5, pp. 46–58.

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Kattsov, V.M., Khlebnikova, E.I., Shkolnik, I.M. et al. Probabilistic Regional Climate Projecting as a Basis for the Development of Adaptation Programs for the Economy of the Russian Federation. Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol. 45, 330–338 (2020). https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373920050039

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373920050039

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