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Operative Scheme for the Short-range Complex Forecasting of Surface Air Temperature and Humidity

Abstract

The statistical scheme is proposed for the forecast of surface air temperature and humidity using operative weather forecasts with 3–5-day lead time from the best forecasting hydrodynamic models as well as the archives of forecasts of these models and observational data from 2800 weather stations of Russia, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia. The output of the scheme includes the forecasts of air temperature for the standard observation moments with the period of 6 hours and extreme temperatures with the lead times of 12–120 hours. The accuracy of temperature and humidity forecasts for the period from July 2014 till June 2017 is much higher than that for the forecasts of original hydrodynamic models. The skill scores for extreme temperature forecasts based on the proposed method are compared with the similar results of the Weather Element Computation (WEC) forecasting scheme and forecasts by weathermen.

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Correspondence to V. A. Gordin.

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Original Russian Text © A.N. Bagrov, Ph.L. Bykov, V.A. Gordin, 2018, published in Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya, 2018, No. 8, pp. 5–18.

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Bagrov, A.N., Bykov, P.L. & Gordin, V.A. Operative Scheme for the Short-range Complex Forecasting of Surface Air Temperature and Humidity. Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol. 43, 495–505 (2018). https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373918080010

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Keywords

  • Forecasting model
  • air temperature
  • forecast error
  • lead time
  • extreme temperature
  • dew-point temperature