Abstract
Physical principles are considered of asynchronous long-period relationships between the thermal state of the North Atlantic and the dates of the stable average daily air temperature crossing 8°C in spring and autumn in the Volga Federal District. The methodology and the results are discussed of testing the informativeness of the fields of sea surface temperature anomalies for long-range forecasting of the dates of the stable average daily air temperature crossing 8°C in the district.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
E. G. Apasova, “Distribution of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in the North Atlantic in Case of Significant Air Temperature Anomalies on the Continents,” Trudy Gidromettsentra SSSR, No. 107 (1973) [in Russian].
N. A. Bagrov, K. V. Kondratovich, D. A. Ped’, and A. I. Ugryumov, Long-range Weather Forecasts (Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 1985) [in Russian].
O. V. Batyreva and R. M. Vil’fand, “Forecasting the Anomaly of Monthly Mean Air Temperature Using the Field of H500 and H500/1000,” Trudy Gidromettsentra Rossii, No. 380 (1999) [in Russian].
N. A. Vazhnova and M. A. Vereshchagin, “Long-range Forecasting of Thermal Conditions in the Volga Federal District,” Izv. Akad. Nauk, Ser. Geogr., No. 3 (2015) [in Russian].
A. A. Vasil’ev and A. V. Frolov, “Hydrometcenter of Russia at the Turn of the Century,” in 70 Years to the Hydrometcenter of Russia (Gidrometeoizdat, St. Petersburg, 1999) [in Russian].
R. M. Vil’fand, V. A. Tishchenko, and V. M. Khan, “Statistical Forecast of Temperature Dynamics within Month on the Basis of Hydrodynamic Model Outputs,” Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 3 (2007) [Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., No. 3, 32 (2007)].
B. M. Ginzburg and B. N. Konovodov, “On the Method of Forecasting Ice Breakup on the Ob and Yenisei Rivers,” Trudy TsIP, No. 40 (64) (1955) [in Russian].
A. N. Derevyanko, “Calculation of the Dates of the Beginning of Field Works and Sowing of Early Grain Crops in the Non-chernozem Zone of the European part of Russia,” Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 1 (1969) [in Russian].
V. V. Druzhinin, “Thermal Impact of the Ocean on the Formation of the Thermobaric Field over the North Atlantic,” Trudy AANII, No. 325 (1974) [in Russian].
A. A. Isaev and B. G. Sherstyukov, “Variations in Climatic Parameters of the Heating Period and Assessment of the Potential of Their Very-long-range Forecasting (Case Study of Moscow),” Vestnik MGU, Ser. 5, Geografiya, No. 2 (1996) [in Russian].
A. L. Kats, The Unusual Summer of 1972 (Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 1979) [in Russian].
Climate of Russia, Ed. by N. V. Kobysheva (Gidrometeoizdat, St. Petersburg, 2001) [in Russian].
V. F. Kozel’tseva, “On the Problem of Forecasting the Dates of the Stable Average Daily Air Temperature Crossing 0°C, +5°C,” Trudy TsIP, No. 76 (1971) [in Russian].
V. F. Kozel’tseva and D. A. Ped’, The Data on the Spring Dates of the Stable Average Daily Air Temperature Crossing 0°C, +5°Cfrom the Stations in the Western Part of the USSR (VNIIGMI-MTsD, Obninsk, 1987) [in Russian].
A. N. Kryndin, “The North Atlantic Effects on the Formation of the Seasonal Field of H500 in the First Natural Synoptic Region,” Trudy Gidromettsentra SSSR, No. 43 (1989) [in Russian].
V. M. Mirvis, N. P. Guseva, and A. V. Meshcherskaya, “Estimation of Russia’s Climate Continentality Change from Amplitude-phase Charactertstics of Annual Cycle of Daily Mean Air Temperature in the Last Century,” Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 7 (1998) [Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., No. 7 (1998)].
G. A. Panovskii and G. V. Braier, Statistical Methods in Meteorology (Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 1972) [in Russian].
V. P. Sadokov and R. M. Vil’fand, “New Results in the Development of Statistical Methods of Long-range Weather Forecasting and the Technology of Their Production,” in 70 Years to the Hydrometcenter of Russia (Gidrometeoizdat, St. Petersburg, 1999) [in Russian].
V. P. Sadokov, V. F. Kozel’tseva, and N. N. Kuznetsova, “Determination of Spring Dates of Stable Daily Average Air Temperature Crossing 0, +5°C, Their Forecast and Assessment,” Ed. by M. A. Tolstykh, Trudy Gidromettsentra Rossii, No. 348 (2012) [in Russian].
A. I. Ugryumov, The Ocean Thermal Regime and Long-range Weather Forecasts (Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 1981) [in Russian].
V. M. Khan, R. M. Vil’fand, V. P. Sadokov, and V. A. Tishchenko, “Monthly Weather Forecasts: State-of-the-art and Prospects,” in 80 Years to the Hydrometcenter of Russia (St. Petersburg, 2009) [in Russian].
R. Storm, Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung. Mathematische Statistik. Statistische Qualitatskontrolle, Ed. by N. S. Raibman (Moscow, Mir, 1970) [Translated from German].
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Original Russian Text © N.A. Vazhnova, M.A. Vereshchagin, 2017, published in Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya, 2017, No. 1, pp. 56-66.
About this article
Cite this article
Vazhnova, N.A., Vereshchagin, M.A. Long-range forecasting of the dates of the stable 8°C crossing in average daily air temperature in the Volga Federal District. Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol. 42, 38–45 (2017). https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373917010058
Received:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373917010058