Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Long-term projection of main parameters of regional climate till the year 3000

  • Published:
Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The methods are considered to solve the problem of secure isolation of radioactive waste containing long-lived products of nuclear fuel processing with a half-life of tens of thousands years (plutonium etc.). The methodology of long-term projection of average annual surface air temperature and total precipitation is proposed. Taking into account the possible scenarios of the development of the global socioeconomic system, variations due to the anthropogenic impact in average annual temperature at the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes for the period till 2300 are estimated. Based on paleoclimatic data, projections of natural trends in global average annual temperature and total precipitation till the year 3000 are developed. Taking into account the anthropogenic component, the projective ranges of these climatic parameters in the Vyatka River basin in 2100-3000 are evaluated.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. O. K. Borisova, “The Climate of the Late Dryas in the Extratropical Part of the Northern Hemisphere,” Izv. Akad. Nauk, Seriya Geograficheskaya, No. 3 (1990) [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  2. O. K. Borisova, “The Stages of the Most Rapid Landscape-climate Changes in the Late Pleistocene,” in Proceedings of VIII All-Russian Meeting on Studying the Quaternary Period "Fundamental Problems of Quaternary Period, Investigation Results, and Further Research Areas," June 10-15, 2013, Rostov-on-Don (YuNTs RAN, Rostov-on-Don, 2013) [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  3. A. A. Velichko, “The Problem of Consequence and Structure of Major Climatic Rhythms of the Pleistocene,” in Problems of Paleogeography of the Pleistocene in Glacial and Periglacial Areas (Nauka, Moscow, 1981) [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  4. A. A. Velichko and O. K. Borisova, “Paleanalogues of Global Warming in the 21st Century,” Dokl. Akad. Nauk, No. 2, 438 (2011) [Dokl. Earth Sciences, No. 1, 438 (2011)].

    Google Scholar 

  5. A. A. Velichko, O. K. Borisova, and V. A. Klimanov, “Spatial Differentiation in Precipitation during Differentscale Global Warmings,” Dokl. Akad. Nauk, No. 5, 362 (1998) [Dokl. Earth Sciences, No. 8, 363 (1998)].

    Google Scholar 

  6. A. A. Velichko, O. K. Borisova, and T. V. Svetlitskaya, “The Climate of the Uninhabited Earth (Numerical Reconstructions for the Eocene Optimum),” Izv. Akad. Nauk, Seriya Geograficheskaya, No. 1 (1995) [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  7. A. A. Velichko, E. M. Zelikson, O. K. Borisova, et al., “Numerical Reconstructions of the East European Plain Climate in Recent 450000 Years,” Izv. Akad. Nauk, Seriya Geograficheskaya, No. 1 (2004) [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  8. A. A. Velichko, V. A. Klimanov, and Yu. M. Kononov, “Climate Change in Recent 1000 Years against a Background of Climate Variations in the Holocene,” in Potential of Control of Climate Change and Its Negative Consequences. The Kyoto Protocol Problem: Proceedings of the Meeting-seminar under the President of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Nauka, Moscow, 2006).

    Google Scholar 

  9. Second Roshydromet Assessment Report on Climate Change and Its Consequences in Russian Federation. General Summary (Roshydromet, Moscow, 2014).

  10. V. P. Grichuk, “Reconstruction of Some Northern Hemisphere Climate Elements in the Atlantic Period of the Holocene,” in The Holocene (Nauka, Moscow, 1969) [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  11. V. A. Klimanov, “Method of Reconstruction of Quantitative Parameters of the Past Climate,” Vestnik MGU, Seriya Geograficheskaya, No. 2 (1976) [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  12. V. A. Klimanov, “Paleoclimatic Conditions in the USSR in Major Thermal Maxima of the Holocene,” in The Pleistocene in Siberia: Stratigraphy and Interregional Correlation, Trudy IGiG SO RAN SSSR, No. 657 (1989) [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  13. The Climate of the Kirov Oblast; http://trasa.ru/region/kirovskaya_clim.html.

  14. Climates and Landscapes of North Eurasia under Conditions of Global Warming (Hindcasting and Scenarios), Ed. by A. A. Velichko (GEOS, Moscow, 2010) [in Russian].

  15. V. V. Klimenko, The Cold Climate of the Early Subatlantic Epoch in the Northern Hemisphere (MEI, Moscow, 2004) [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  16. V. M. Kotlyakov and K. Lorius, “Four Climatic Cycles from the Data of Ice Core from a Deep Well at Vostok Station in Antarctica,” Izv. Akad. Nauk, Seriya Geograficheskaya, No. 1 (2000) [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  17. IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014. Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, Geneva, 2015) [Transl. from English].

  18. D. Meadows, J. Randers, and D. Meadows, Limits to Growth. The 30-year Update (Akademkniga, Moscow, 2007) [Transl. from English].

    Google Scholar 

  19. Methods of Paleoclimate Reconstruction, Ed. by A. A. Velichko, L. R. Serebryanyi, and E. E. Gurtova (Nauka, Moscow, 1985) [in Russian].

  20. Our Common Future. United Nations World Commission on Environment and Development Report (Progress, Moscow, 1989) [Transl. from English].

  21. Assessment Report on Climate Change and Its Consequences on the Territory of the Russian Federation, Vol. 1: Climate Change (Roshydromet, Moscow, 2008) [in Russian].

  22. Paleoclimates and Paleoenvironments of the Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Zone. The Late Pleistocene-Holocene. Atlas-monography, Ed. by A. A. Velichko (GEOS, Moscow, 2009) [in Russian].

  23. V. G. Savonenkov, E. B. Anderson, and S. I. Shabalev, “Long-term Forecasting of Safety for Disposal of Radioactive Waste,” Bezopasnost' Yadernykh Tekhnologii i Okruzhayushchei Sredy, No. 1 (2011) [Environmental Safety, No. 1 (2011)].

    Google Scholar 

  24. S. M. Semenov, Greenhouse Gases and Contemporary Earth Climate (Meteorol. Gidrol., Moscow, 2004) [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  25. R. B. Alley, P. A. Mayevski, T. Sowers, et al., “Holocene Climatic Instability: A Prominent, Widespread Event 8200 Yr Ago,” Geology, 25 (1997).

    Google Scholar 

  26. Atlas of Paleoclimates and Paleoenvironments of the Northern Hemisphere (Late Pleistocene-Holocene), Ed. by B. Frenzel, M. Pecsi, and A. A. Velichko (Geographical Res. Inst., Budapest, Gustav Fisher Ferlag, Stuttgart, 1992).

  27. D. C. Barber, A. Dyke, C. Hillaire-Marcel, et al., “Forcing of the Cold Event of 8200 Years Ago by Catastrophic Drainage of Laurentide Lakes,” Nature, 400 (1999).

    Google Scholar 

  28. W. S. Broecker, D. M. Peteet, and D. Rind, “Does the Ocean-Atmosphere System Have More Than One Stable Mode of Operation?" Nature, 315 (1985).

    Google Scholar 

  29. IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Summary for Policymakers. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Draft Rep. (WMO/UNEP, Geneva, Feb. 2007).

  30. IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (Summary for Policymakers) (IPCC, Geneva, 2000).

  31. P. D. Jones, T. J. Osborn, and K. R. Briffa, “The Evolution of Climate over the Last Millennium,” Science, 292 (2001).

    Google Scholar 

  32. S. A. Marcott, J. D. Shakun, P. U. Clark, and A. C. Mix, “A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11300 years,” Science, 339 (2013).

    Google Scholar 

  33. D. H. Meadows, D. L. Meadows, J. Randers, and W. W. Behrens III, The Limits to Growth. A Report to the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind (Universe Books, N.Y., 1972).

    Google Scholar 

  34. J. H. Mercer, “The Allered Oscillation: A European Climatic Anomaly?" Arctic and Alpine Res., 8 (1989).

    Google Scholar 

  35. A. Yu. Sidorchuk, A. V. Panin, and O. K. Borisova, “Morphology of River Channels and Surface Runoff in the Volga River Basin (East European Plain) during the Late Glacial Period,” Geomorphology, 113 (2009).

    Google Scholar 

  36. A. Yu. Sidorchuk, A. V. Panin, and O. K. Borisova, “Surface Runoff to the Black Sea from the East European Plain during Last Glaciation Maximum-Late Glacial Time,” in Geology and Geoarchaeology of the Black Sea Region: Beyond the Flood Hypothesis, Ed. by I. Buynevich, V. Yanko-Hombach, A. S. Gilbert, and R. E. Martin, The Geological Society of America Special Paper, 473 (2011).

    Google Scholar 

  37. A. Sidorchuk, A. Panin, O. Borisova, and N. Kovalyukh, “Lateglacial and Holocene Paleohydrology of the Lower Vychegda River, Western Russia,” in River Basin Sediment Systems: Archives of Environmental Change, Ed. by D. Maddy, M. G. Macklin, and J. C. Woodward (A.A. Balkema Publ., 2001).

    Google Scholar 

  38. W. H. Zagwijn, “An Analysis of Eemian Climate in Western and Central Europe,” Quaternary Sci. Rev., 15 (1996).

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Global Climate and Ecology of Roshydromet and Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Glebovskaya 20b, Moscow, 107258, Russia

    V. A. Vetrov & A. A. Velichko

  2. Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Staromonetnyi per. 29, Moscow, 119017, Russia

    O. K. Borisova

Authors
  1. V. A. Vetrov
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. O. K. Borisova
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. A. A. Velichko
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to V. A. Vetrov.

Additional information

Original Russian Text © V.A. Vetrov, O.K. Borisova, A.A. Velichko, 2016, published in Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya, 2016, No. 5, pp. 12-31.

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Vetrov, V.A., Borisova, O.K. & Velichko, A.A. Long-term projection of main parameters of regional climate till the year 3000. Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol. 41, 312–325 (2016). https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373916050022

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373916050022

Keywords

Search

Navigation