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Occurence Frequency of Storm Wind Waves in the Baltic, Black, and Caspian Seas under Changing Climate Conditions

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Abstract

The article proposes the method of climatic forecast of the occurrence frequency of synoptic conditions causing severe hydrometeorological events as well as severe events that are genetically related to them, in particular, storm wind waves. The choice of sea level pressure field as an indicator of atmospheric conditions of storm waves is substantiated. The algorithm for the method implementation is developed. It includes the processing of observational/reanalysis data; wind wave simulation; the systematization of synoptic conditions that accompany storm waves under the modern climate; the assessment of the ability of climate models of atmospheric and oceanic general circulation to simulate correctly the frequency of the revealed types of synoptic conditions for the modern climate; and the forecast of the frequency of these types for the possible scenarios of the future climate.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Lomonosov Moscow State University, GSP-1, Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119991, Russia

    A. V. Kislov, G. V. Surkova & V. S. Arkhipkin

Authors
  1. A. V. Kislov
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  2. G. V. Surkova
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  3. V. S. Arkhipkin
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Correspondence to A. V. Kislov.

Additional information

Original Russian Text © A.V. Kislov, G.V. Surkova, V.S. Arkhipkin, 2016, published in Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya, 2016, No. 2, pp. 67-77.

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Kislov, A.V., Surkova, G.V. & Arkhipkin, V.S. Occurence Frequency of Storm Wind Waves in the Baltic, Black, and Caspian Seas under Changing Climate Conditions. Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol. 41, 121–129 (2016). https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373916020060

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