Abstract
Considered is the existence of an alternative to the speeding-up climate warming predicted due to anthropogenic increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The series of observed and simulated average global air temperature are compared using wavelets. It is revealed that the scenarios of the climate change for the next decades cannot be worked out based on the modern climate models. Proposed is the scenario based on the real peculiarities of global temperature variations. According to this scenario, not only the temperature stabilization that has lasted for 15 years will be kept but also the certain cooling is possible.
We’re sorry, something doesn't seem to be working properly.
Please try refreshing the page. If that doesn't work, please contact support so we can address the problem.
References
N. V. Vakulenko, A. S. Monin, and D. M. Sonechkin, “Evidence of Internal Regularity in HoloceneC limatic Fluctuations,” Dokl. Akad. Nauk, No. 5, 389 (2003) [Dokl. Phys., No. 5, 389 (2003)].
N. V. Vakulenko and D. M. Sonechkin, “Evidence of the Upcoming End of the Contemporary Interglacial,” Dokl. Akad. Nauk, No. 1, 452 (2013) [Dokl. Phys., No. 1, 452 (2013)].
N. M. Datsenko, A. S. Monin, A. A. Berestov, et al., “Global Climate Oscillations over the Last 150 Years,” Dokl. Akad. Nauk, No. 2, 399 (2004) [Dokl. Phys., No. 2, 399 (2004)].
A. S. Monin and D. M. Sonechkin, Climate Oscillations from Observational Data. The Triple Solar and Other Cycles (Nauka, Moscow, 2005) [in Russian].
Climate Change, 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Ed. by S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, et al. (IPCC, 2007) [Transl. from English].
I. Charvatova, “Solar-terrestrial and Climatic Phenomena in Relation to Solar Inertial Motion,” Surv. Geophys., 18 (1997).
R. W. Fairbridge and S. Hammed, “Phase Coherence of Solar Cycle Minima over Two 178-year Periods,” Astron. J., 88 (1983).
E. Friis-Christensen and K. Lassen, “Length of the Solar Cycle: An Indicator of Solar Activity Closely Associated with Climate,” Science, No. 5032, 254 (1991).
P. D. Jose, “Sun’s Motion and Sunspots,” Astron. J., No. 3, 70 (1965).
R. A. Kerr, “What Happened to Global Warming? Scientists Say Just Wait a Bit,” Science, No. 5949, 326 (2009).
L. B. Klyashtorin and A. A. Lyubushin, “On the Coherence between Dynamics of the World Fuel Consumption and Global Temperature Anomaly,” Energy & Environment, No. 6, 14 (2003).
T. Landsheit, “Global Warming or Little Ice Age?”, J. Coast. Res., Special Iss. No. 17 (1994).
V. Lucarini, S. Calmanti, A. Dell’Aquila, et al., “Intercomparison of the Northern Hemisphere Winter Midlatitude Atmospheric Variability of the IPCC Models,” Clim. Dyn., 28 (2007).
N. Nicholls, “The Insignificance of Significance Testing,” Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., No. 5, 81 (2000).
N. Scafetta, “Solar and Planetary Oscillations Control on Climate Change: Hind-cast, Forecast and a Comparison with the CMIP5 GCMs,” Energy & Environment, No. 3, 24 (2013).
M. E. Schlesinger and N. Ramankutty, “An Oscillation in the Global Climate System of Period 65-70 Years,” Nature, 367 (1994).
D. M. Sonechkin, N. M. Astafyeva, N. M. Datsenko, et al., “Multiscale Oscillations of the Global Climate System as Revealed by Wavelet Transform of Observational Data Time Series,” Theor. Appl. Climatol., 64 (1999).
B. Yang, D. M. Sonechkin, and N. M. Datsenko, “Eigen Analysis of Tree-ring Records. Part 2. Posing the Eigen Problem,” Theor. Appl. Climatol., Nos. 1–2, 107 (2012).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Original Russian Text © N.V. Vakulenko, R.I. Nigmatullin, D.M. Sonechkin, 2015, published in Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya, 2015, No. 9, pp. 89-97.
About this article
Cite this article
Vakulenko, N.V., Nigmatullin, R.I. & Sonechkin, D.M. On the problem of the global climate change. Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol. 40, 629–634 (2015). https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373915090083
Received:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373915090083