Skip to main content
Log in

Application of statistical downscaling in GCMs at constructing the map of precipitation in the Mekong River basin

  • Published:
Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

An Erratum to this article was published on 01 June 2014

Abstract

This study used the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) to increase the resolution of the Global Circulation Model (GCM) at forecasting the amount of precipitation in the Mekong River basin. The model was initially calibrated using the reanalysis data by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the data on observed precipitation. The results of comparison between the SDSM calculations and the observational data were used to generate the distribution of precipitation until 2099 using HadCM3, SRES A2 and B2 scenarios. After total annual precipitation had been downscaled, the percentage change in precipitation was interpolated among the selected stations in order to create precipitation maps. Both A2 and B2 scenario indicate the possibility of remarkable increase in annual precipitation in the Mekong basin, which may amount to 150 and 110%, respectively. The December–January–February precipitation is likely to increase significantly in the most part of the region, and in some areas, almost by three times. On the contrary, the June–July–August precipitation will remarkably decrease in the different parts of the territory under study. As the water resource sector is the backbone of the economics of this region including hydropower and agricultural sector, the changes in the amount of precipitation and its interannual variability can put the usual water business into stress. Thus, proper adaptive measures should be applied both at local and at regional levels for the benefit of all associated countries utilizing the resource of the Mekong River.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
EUR 32.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or Ebook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. V. K. Arora and G. J. Boer, “Effects of Simulated Climate Change on the Hydrology of Major River Basins,” J. Geophys. Res., No. D4, 106 (2001).

    Google Scholar 

  2. L. D. Brekke, J. E. Kiang, J. R. Olsen, et al. Climate Change and Water Resources Management: A Federal Perspective (U.S. Geological Survey, 2009).

    Google Scholar 

  3. CCCSN. Scenario Construction Notes, Retrieved on October 15, 2012 from CCCSN web site: http://www.cccsn.ec.gc.ca/?page=scen-const-notes.

  4. CCIS, Downscaling Tools, Retrieved on November 24,2012, from CCIS web site: http://www.cics.uvic.ca/scena-rios/index.cgi?More_Info-Weather_Generators.

  5. H. Chen, C. Y. Xu, and S. Guo, “Comparison and Evaluation of Multiple GCMs, Statistical Downscaling and Hydrological Models in the Study of Climate Change Impacts on Runoff,” J. Hydrology, 434–435 (2012).

  6. J. Chen, F. P. Brissette, and R. Leconte, “Uncertainty of Downscaling Method in Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Hydrology,” J. Hydrology, No. 3–4, 401 (2011).

    Google Scholar 

  7. T. Cochrane, M. Arias, R. Teasley, and T. Killeen, “Simulated Changes in Water Flows of the Mekong River from Potential Dam Development and Operations on the Se San and Sre Pok Tributaries,” in IWA World Water Congress and Exhibition (IWA, Montreal, 2010).

    Google Scholar 

  8. M. H. Dore, “Climate Change and Changes in Global Precipitation Patterns: What Do We Know?” Environ. Int. No. 8, 31 (2005).

  9. J. Eastham, F. Mpelasoka, M. Mainuddin, C. Ticehurst, et al., “Mekong River Basin Water Resources Assessment: Impacts of Climate Change,” in CSIRO: Water for a Healthy Country (National Research Flagship, 2008).

    Google Scholar 

  10. H. Fowler, S. Blenkinsop, C. Telbadi, “Linking Climate Change Modelling to Impact Studies: Recent Advances in Downscaling Techniques for Hydrological Modelling,” Int. J. Climatology, 27 (2007).

  11. . Hewitson and R. G. Crane, “Climate Downscaling: Techniques and Application,” Climate Res., 7 (1996).

  12. 1NBO and GWP. The Handbook for Integrated Water Resources Management in Transboundary Basins of Rivers, Lakes and Aquifers (International Network of Basin Organizations (INBO) and the Global Water Partnership (GWP), 2012).

  13. W. Junk, M. Brown, I. Campbell, et al., “The Comparative Biodiversity of Seven Globally Important Wetlands: A Synthesis,” Aquatic Sci., No. 20,16 (2006).

    Google Scholar 

  14. A. Kawasaki, M. Takamatsu, J. He, et al., “An Integrated Approach to Evaluate Potential Impact of Precipitation and Land-use Change on Streamflow in Srepok River Basin,” Theory and Applications of GIS, No. 2, 18 (2010).

    Google Scholar 

  15. G. Kite, “Modelling the Mekong: Hydrological Simulation for Environmental Impact Studies,” J. Hydrol., No. 1–4, 253 (2001).

    Google Scholar 

  16. D. Lamberts, “The Tonle Sap Lake as a Productive Ecosystem,” Int. J. Water Resources, 22 (2006).

  17. H. Lauri, H. D. Moel, P. J. Ward, et al., “Future Changes in Mekong River Hydrology: Impact of Climate Change and Reservoir Operation on Discharge 2,” Hydrol. and Earth System Sci. Discuss., 9 (2012).

  18. X. Liu, P. Coulibaly, and N. Evora, “Comparison of Data-driven Methods for Downscaling Ensemble Weather Forecasts,” Hydrol. and Earth System Sci. Discuss., 4 (2007).

  19. X. X. Lu and R. Y. Siew, “Water Discharge and Sediment Flux Changes in Lower Mekong River,” Hydrol. and Earth System Sci. Discuss., 2 (2005).

  20. B. K. Mishra and S. Herath, “Climate Projections Downscaling and Impact Assessment on Precipitation over Upper Bagmati River Basin, Nepal,” in Third International Conference on Addressing Climate Change for Sustainable Development through Up-Scaling Renewable Energy Technologies (RETRUD, Kathmandu, 2011).

    Google Scholar 

  21. MRC Overview of the Hydrology of the Mekong basin (Mekong River Commission, Vientiane, 2005).

  22. MRC. Adaptation to Climate Change in the Countries of the Lower Mekong Basin (Mekong River Comission, Vientiane, 2009).

  23. MRC. Impacts of Climate Change and Development on Mekong Flow Regimes: First Assessment (Mekong River Comission, Vientiane, 2009); http://’www.mrcmekong.org/assets/Pub1ications/reort-managementdee1op/MRC-IM-No4-impacts-of-climate-change.pdf.

  24. MRC. Hydrometeorological Database of the Mekong River Commission (Mekong River Commission, Vientiane, Lao PDR, 2012).

  25. J. Murphy, “An Evaluation of Statistical and Dynamical Techniques for Downscaling Local Climate,” J. Climate, 12 (1998).

  26. N. Nakicenovic, J. Alcamo, G. Davis, et al. Special Report on Emission Scenario (IPCC, Geneva, 2000).

    Google Scholar 

  27. V. T. Nguyen, “Downscaling Methods for Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Hydro-logical Regime at Basin Scale,” in Role of Water Sciences in Transboundary River Basin Management (2005).

    Google Scholar 

  28. A. F. Poulsen, K. G. Hortle, J. Valbo-Jorgensen, et al. Distribution and Ecology of Some Important Riverine Fish Species of the Mekong River Basin, MRC (Mekong River Commission, Vientiane, Lao PDR, 2004).

    Google Scholar 

  29. V. Ramaswamy, O. Boucher, J. Haigh, et al., “Radiative Forcing of Climate Change,” in IPCC Third Assessment Report—Climate Change 2001 (Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change).

  30. J. Ramirez and A. Jarvis, Downscaling Global Circulation Model Outputs: The Delta Method, Decision and Policy Analysis (International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), 2010).

    Google Scholar 

  31. D. Randall, R. Wood, S. Bony, et al., Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA, 2007).

    Google Scholar 

  32. S. Samadi, K. Ehteramian, and B. S. Sarraf, “SDSM Ability in Simulate Predictors for Climate Detecting over Khorasan Province,” Procedia Social and Behavioral Sci., 19 (2011).

  33. R. H. Sharma and N. M. Shakya, “Hydrological Changes and Its Impact on Water Resources of Bagmati Watershed, Nepal,” J. Hydrology, No. 3–4, 327 (2006).

    Google Scholar 

  34. A. Shaw, S. Shepparda, S. Burch, et al., “Making Local Futures Tangible—Synthesizing, Downscaling, and Visualizing Climate Change Scenarios for Participatory Capacity Building,” Global Environ. Change, No. 4,19 (2012), http://www,sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378009000363.

    Google Scholar 

  35. D. Shepard, “A Two-dimensional Interpolation Function for Irregularly-spaced Data,” in 23rd National Conference ACM (1968).

    Google Scholar 

  36. H. V. Storch, B. Hewitson, and L. Mearns, Review of Empirical Downscaling Techniques (GKSS Res. Center, Institute for Hydrophysics, Germany, 1999).

    Google Scholar 

  37. M. Sunyer, H. Madsen, and P. Ang, “A Comparison of Different Regional Climate Models and Statistical Downscaling Methods for Extreme Rainfall Estimation under Climate Change,” Atmos. Res., 103 (2012): http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016980951100189X.

  38. S. Tumbo, E. Mpeta, M. Tadross, et al, “Application of Self-organizing Maps Technique in Downscaling GCMs Climate Change Projections for Same, Tanzania,” Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, No. 13–14, 35 (2010); http://www.sciencedirect.eom/science/article/pii/S147470651000152X.

    Google Scholar 

  39. T. V. Ty, K. Sunada, and Y. Ichikawa, “A Spatial Impact Assessment of Human-induced Intervention on Hydrological Regimes: A Case Study in the Upper Srepok River Basin, Central Highlands of Vietnam,” Int. J. River Basin Management, No. 9, 2 (2011).

    Google Scholar 

  40. R. L. Wilby and C. W. Dawson, SDSM 4.2-A Decision Support Tool for the Assesment of Regional Climate Change Impacts (2007).

    Google Scholar 

  41. R. Wilby, C. Dawson, and E. Barrow, “SDSM—a Decision Support Tool for the Assessment of Regional Climate Change Impacts,” Environ. Modelling & Software, No. 17, 2 (2002).

    Google Scholar 

  42. C.-Y. Xu, “From GCMs to River Flow: A Review of Downscaling Methods and Hydrologie Modelling Approaches,” Progress in Physical Geography, No. 2, 23 (1999).

    Google Scholar 

  43. Z. Xue, J. P. Liu, and Q. Ge, “Changes in Hydrology and Sediment Delivery of the Mekong River in the Last 50 Years: Connection to Damming, Monsoon, and ENSO,” Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 36 (2011).

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to K. Kang.

Additional information

Original Russian Text © K. Parajuli, K. Kang, 2014, published in Russian in Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya, 2014, No. 4, pp. 93–108.

The text is submitted by the authors in English.

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Parajuli, K., Kang, K. Application of statistical downscaling in GCMs at constructing the map of precipitation in the Mekong River basin. Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol. 39, 271–282 (2014). https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373914040086

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373914040086

Keywords

Navigation