Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Long-term variability and methods of forecasting dates of ice break-up in the mouth area of the Ob and Yenisei rivers

  • Published:
Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Long-term characteristics of the onset dates of spring ice phases at hydrological stations in the mouth areas of the Ob and Yenisei rivers for 1936–2006 are obtained. The correlations are analyzed between these dates and the frequency of different synoptic processes over the Atlantic and Eurasia in the fall-winter months, the dates when the accumulated temperatures at meteorological stations in the middle parts of the river basins reach 5, 10, 20, 30, and 40°C, and the dates of the start of ice drift at the upstream sections of the Yenisei. Prognostic relations are suggested and test forecasts of the onset dates of ice phases are verified. The percentage of correct forecasts was 67–86%, which makes it possible to recommend the relations for using in prognostic practice. The forecast lead time ranges from 3 to 110 days.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. V. S. Antonov, “Break-up of the Ice Cover in the Yenisei Bay and the Gulf of Ob,” Trudy AANII, 234 [Trans. Arctic and Antarctic Res. Inst., 234].

  2. V. S. Antonov, “Methods of Forecasting Ice Break-up in Mouth Areas of the Rivers of the Laptev Sea,” Trudy AANII, 209 (1958) [Trans. Arctic and Antarctic Res. Inst., 209 (1958)].

  3. V. S. Antonov, “Method of Ice Break-up and Freeze-up Prediction in the Lower Reach of the Yenisei River,” Trudy AANII, 176 (1941) [Trans. Arctic and Antarctic Res. Inst., 176 (1941)].

  4. V. S. Antonov and L. G. Toporkov, “Physico-statistical Method of Long-range Forecasting of Onset Dates of Ice Phases in the Lower Reaches and Estuaries of Siberian Rivers,” Trudy AANII, 290 (1970) [Trans. Arctic and Antarctic Res. Inst., 290 (1970)].

  5. V. S. Burdykina, “A Method of Long-range Forecasting of Ice Break-up and Freeze-up in the Lower Reaches of the Ob and Yenisei Rivers,” Trudy AANII, 234 [Trans. Arctic and Antarctic Res. Inst., 234].

  6. A. P. Burdykina, “Methodology of Background Forecasts of the Dates of Ice Break-Up and Freeze-up in the Rivers of the Arctic Siberian Zone,” Trudy AANII, 22 (1949) [Trans. Arctic and Antarctic Res. Inst., 22 (1949)].

  7. A. P. Burdykina, “Characteristic Features of Ice Break-up in the Mouth and Lower Reach of the Yenisei River,” Trudy AANII, 290 (1970) [Trans. Arctic and Antarctic Res. Inst., 290 (1970)].

  8. B. M. Ginzburg, Sea Surface Temperature Influence on the Dates of Ice Freezing and Breaking in Rivers. Methods of Taking it into Account in Forecasts (Gidrometeoizdat, St. Petersburg, 2005) [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  9. B. M. Ginzburg and M. I. Silnitskaya, “Impact of Sea Surface Temperature Distribution on Freeze-up and Break-up Dates on Rivers of Asian Russia,” Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 1 (2004) [Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., No. 1 (2004)].

  10. B. M. Ginsburg and M. I. Silnitskaya, “The Effect of Sea Surface Temperature Distribution on the Dates of River Break-up in European Russia,” Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 6 (2000) [Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., No. 6 (2000)].

  11. B. M. Ginzburg and I. I. Soldatova, “Long-Term Oscillations of River Freezing and Break-up in Different Geographical Zones,” Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 6 (1996) [Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., No. 6 (1996)].

  12. A. A. Dmitriev and V. A. Belyazo, Space, Planetary Climatic Variability and Atmosphere of Polar Regions (Gidrometeoizdat, St. Petersburg, 2006) [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  13. N. D. Efremova and E. S. Karakash, “A Method of Long-range Forecasting of the Dates of Ice Breaking in the Lena and Yenisei Rivers,” Trudy Gidromettsentra SSSR, No. 186 (1977) [Trans. Hydrometeorological Research Center of the USSR, No. 186 (1977)].

  14. V. V. Ivanov, “Basic Principles of Hydrological and Morphological Zoning of Mouth Areas of Large Rivers,” Trudy AANII, 308 (1974) [Trans. Arctic and Antarctic Res. Inst., 308 (1974)].

  15. V. V. Ivanov and Yu. V. Nalimov, “Evaluation of Changes in the Ice Break-up Regime in the Lower Reach and Mouth of the Yenisei River in the Case of Runoff Regulation,” Trudy Koordinatsionnogo Soveshchaniya po Gidrotekhnike, No. III (1976) [Trans. Coordination Meeting on Hydrological Engineering, No. III (1976)].

  16. Yu. V. Nalimov, G. E. Usankina, and A. P. Balabaev, “Characteristics of Ice-Clearing Process in the Estuaries of West Arctic from the Materials of the Ice Airborne Prospecting and Satellite Data,” Trudy AANII, 449 (2004) [Trans. Arctic and Antarctic Res. Inst., 449 (2004)].

  17. Forecasting Manual (Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 1962), Section 3, Part 1 [in Russian].

  18. E. I. Savchenkova and N. D. Efremova, “Experience in Developing and Using Synoptic and Statistical Methods of Long-Range Forecasting of Dates of Ice Events on the Rivers and Water Reservoirs,” in Abstracts of Presentations to the 5th All-Union Hydrological Congress, Section of Hydrological Forecasts, 1986.

  19. Z. S. Solov’eva, “Long-Range Forecasts of Ice Break-up in the Lower Reaches and Mouths of the Siberian Arctic Rivers and their Quality,” Trudy AANII, 314 (1976) [Trans. Arctic and Antarctic Res. Inst., 314 (1976)].

  20. Z. S. Solov’eva, “Expansion of Meteorological Fields in Chebyshev Polynomials for Forecasting Break-up Dates in the Mouth Area of Yenisei,“ Trudy AANII, 358 (1980) [Trans. Arctic and Antarctic Res. Inst., 358 (1980)].

  21. Z. S. Solov’eva, “Correlation between Dates of Ice Breaking in the Siberian Rivers and Characteristic Features of the Atmospheric Circulation,” Trudy AANII, 394 (1984) [Trans. Arctic and Antarctic Res. Inst., 394 (1984)].

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. The Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, ul. Beringa 38, St. Petersburg, 199397, Russia

    E. V. Shevnina & Z. S. Solov’eva

Authors
  1. E. V. Shevnina
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Z. S. Solov’eva
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Additional information

Original Russian Text © E.V. Shevnina, Z.S. Solov’eva, 2008, published in Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya, 2008, No. 7, pp. 73–84.

About this article

Cite this article

Shevnina, E.V., Solov’eva, Z.S. Long-term variability and methods of forecasting dates of ice break-up in the mouth area of the Ob and Yenisei rivers. Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol. 33, 458–465 (2008). https://doi.org/10.3103/S106837390807008X

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S106837390807008X

Keywords

Search

Navigation