Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Climate of Russia in the 21st century. Part 1. New evidence of anthropogenic climate change and the state of the art of its simulation

  • Published:
Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This is the first of three papers devoted to the study of climate change in Russia in the 20th and 21st centuries using ensembles of CMIP3 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models. Current studies of observed global and regional climate changes are briefly reviewed based on the analysis of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The anthropogenic nature of climate change is emphasized. It is also noted that the observed warming in Russia is significantly larger than global warming. Alternative hypotheses on causes of global climate changes discussed in some Russian publications are reviewed and their groundlessness is shown. The paper discusses some characteristics of ensembles of CMIP3 models that participated in the preparation of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. A model quality index is introduced. The dependence of simulated climate change in Russia on the choice of model ensembles and emission scenarios is considered. It is shown that the climate change in Russia does not depend significantly on the emission scenario choice until the middle of the 21st century.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. G. V. Gruza and E. Ya. Ran’kova, “Climate Oscillations and Changes in Russia,” Izv. Akad. Nauk, Fiz. Atmos. Okeana, No. 2, 39 (2003) [Izv., Atmos. Oceanic Phys., No. 2, 39 (2003)].

  2. Z. M. Gudkovich, V. P. Karklin, and I. E. Frolov, “Interannual Changes in the Climate and Sea Ice Extent of the Eurasia Arctic Seas and Their Possible Causes,” Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 6 (2005) [Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., No. 6 (2005)].

  3. N. M. Datsenko, A. S. Monin, A. A. Berestov, et al., “On the Oscillations in Global Climate During the Last 150 years,” Dokl. Akad. Nauk, No. 2, 399 (2004) [Dokl. Phys., No. 2, 399 (2004)].

  4. V. M. Kattsov, G. V. Alekseeva, T. V. Pavlova, et al., “Global Ocean Sea Ice Extent Evolution in the 20th and 21st Centuries in the Simulations with Global Climate Models of the New Generation,” Izv. Akad. Nauk, Fiz. Atmos. Okeana, No. 2, 43 (2007) [Izv., Atmos. Oceanic Phys., No. 2, 43 (2007)].

  5. V. M. Kattsov and V. P. Meleshko, “Comparative Analysis of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models Developed for Climate Change Predictions,” Izv. Akad. Nauk, Fiz. Atmos. Okeana, No. 6, 40 (2004) [Izv., Atmos. Oceanic Phys., No. 6, 40 (2004)].

  6. T. V. Pavlova, V. P. Meleshko, and V. A. Govorkova, “Heat and Water Budget Characteristics over the Basins of Large Rivers at the Main Geophysical Observatory (MGO) Atmospheric Model Calculated as Part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project, AMIP-I and AMIP-II,” Trudy GGO, No. 550 (2001) [Trans. Main Geophysical Observatory, No. 550 (2001)].

  7. I. A. Shiklomanov and V. Yu. Georgievskii, “Change in the Runoff of Russian Rivers with the Global Climate Warming,” in Proc. VI All-Russia Hydrological Meeting, Section 3 “Water Budget, Resources of Surface Underground Waters, Hydrological Consequences of Human Activity and Climate Changes; Vulnerability and Adaptation of the Socio-economic Sphere,” (Meteoagentstvo Roshydrometa, Moscow, 2007).

    Google Scholar 

  8. K. Achuta Rao, C. Covey, M. Fiorino, et al., An Appraisal of Coupled Model Simulations (Lawrence Liverrnore National Laboratory, Livemore, CA, UCRL-TR-202550, 2004).

    Google Scholar 

  9. ERA-40: www.ecmwf.int/research/era/Products.

  10. P. Forster, V. Ramaswamy, P. Artaxo, et al., “Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and Radiative Forcing,” in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Ed. by S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, et al. (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2007).

    Google Scholar 

  11. IPCC. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Ed. by J. T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, et al. (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2001).

    Google Scholar 

  12. E. Jansen, J. Overpeck, K. R. Briffa, et al., “Paleoclimate,” in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Ed. by S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, et al. (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2007) (in press).

    Google Scholar 

  13. O. M. Johannessen, L. Bengtsson, M. W. Miles, et al., “Arctic Climate Change-jobserved and Modelled Temperature and Sea Ice,” Tellus, 56A (2004).

  14. G. A. Meehl, C. Covey, T. Delworth, et al., “The WCRP CMIP3 Multimodel Dataset. A New Era in Climate Change Research,” Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc. (2007).

  15. M. New, M. Hulme, and P. Jones, “Representing Twentieth-century Space-time Climate Variability. Part I: Development of a 1961–1990 Mean Monthly Terrestrial Climatology,” J. Climate, 12 (1999).

  16. M. New, M. Hulme, and P. Jones, “Representing Twentieth-century Space-time Climate Variability. Part II: Development of 1901–1996 Monthly Grids of Terrestrial Surface Temperature,” J. Climate, 13 (2000).

  17. T. J. Phillips and P. J. Gleckler, “Evaluation of Continental Precipitation in 20th Century Climate Simulations: Utility of Multimodel Statistics,” Water Resour. Res., 42 (2005).

  18. I. V. Polyakov, M. A. Johnson, R. L. Colony, et al., “Observationally Based Assessment of Polar Amplification of Global Warming,” Geophys. Res. Lett., 29 (2002).

  19. N. A. Rayner, D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, et al., “Global Analyses of Sea Surface Temperature, Sea Ice, and Night Marine Air Temperature Since the Late Nineteenth Century,” J. Geophys. Res., No. D14, 108 (2003).

  20. SRES, 2000. Emission Scenarios. A Special Report of IPCC Working Group III. Based on a draft prepared by N. Nakicenovic et al. (2000).

  21. K. Trenberth, P. Jones, P. Ambenie, et al., “Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change,” in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Ed. by S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, et al. (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2007) (in press).

    Google Scholar 

  22. P. Xie and P. A. Arkin, “Global Monthly Precipitation Estimates from Satellite-observed Outgoing Longwave Radiation,” J. Climate, 11 (1998).

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, ul. Karbysheva 7, St. Petersburg, 194021, Russia

    V. P. Meleshko, V. M. Kattsov, V. M. Mirvis, V. A. Govorkova & T. V. Pavlova

Authors
  1. V. P. Meleshko
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. V. M. Kattsov
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. V. M. Mirvis
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. V. A. Govorkova
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. T. V. Pavlova
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Additional information

Original Russian Text © V.P. Meleshko, V.M. Kattsov, V.M. Mirvis, V.A. Govorkova, T.V. Pavlova, 2008, published in Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya, 2008, No. 6, pp. 5–19.

About this article

Cite this article

Meleshko, V.P., Kattsov, V.M., Mirvis, V.M. et al. Climate of Russia in the 21st century. Part 1. New evidence of anthropogenic climate change and the state of the art of its simulation. Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol. 33, 341–350 (2008). https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373908060010

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373908060010

Keywords

Search

Navigation