Abstract
A method of a long-term forecast of smoothed temperature dynamics within month with a zero lead time for some Russian sites is considered. A procedure of a search for optimum predictors and a regression-analog prediction scheme are described. Hydrodynamic forecasts for the first ten days of the prognostic month are used as a predictor. Results of the prediction scheme verification on independent data with the use of hydrodynamic model outputs are discussed. Ways to improve the prediction scheme are suggested.
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Original Russian Text © R.M. Vil’fand, V.A. Tishchenko, V.M. Khan, 2007, published in Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya, 2007, No. 3, pp. 5–13.
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Vil’fand, R.M., Tishchenko, V.A. & Khan, V.M. Statistical forecast of temperature dynamics within month on the basis of hydrodynamic model outputs. Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol. 32, 147–153 (2007). https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373907030016
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373907030016