Abstract
The main purpose of the present paper is to establish the asymptotic properties of pseudo maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of a multiple change-point model in the multivariate copula models when marginal distributions are unspecified but the copula function is parametrized. A pseudo likelihood ratio-type statistic is proposed for testing a sequence of observations for no change in the copula parameter against possible changes. Finally, a weighted bootstrap procedure that aims at evaluating the limiting distributions is examined.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
D. J. Aldous, Exchangeability and Related Topics, in Lecture Notes in Math., Vol. 1117:’ Ecole d”et’e de probabilit’es de Saint-Flour XIII-1983 (Springer, Berlin, 1985), pp. 1–198.
A. Aue and L. Horv’ath, “Structural Breaks in Time Series”, J. Time Ser. Anal. 34(1), 1–16 (2012).
P. Barbe and P. Bertail, The Weighted Bootstrap, in Lecture Notes in Statist. (Springer, New York, 1995), Vol. 98.
M. Basseville and I. V. Nikiforov, Detection of Abrupt Changes: Theory and Application, in Prentice Hall Information and System Sciences Series (Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1993).
P. Billingsley, Convergence of ProbabilityMeasures (Wiley, New York, 1968).
S. Bouzebda, “On the Strong Approximation of Bootstrapped Empirical Copula Processes with Applications”, Math. Methods Statist. 21(3), 153–188 (2012).
S. Bouzebda and M. Cherfi, “Test of Symmetry Based on Copula Function”, J. Statist. Plann. Inference 142(5), 1262–1271 (2012a).
S. Bouzebda and M. Cherfi, “General Bootstrap for Dual gf-Divergence Estimates”, J. Probab. Stat., 2012 Art.ID 834107, 33 pages, doi:10.1155/2012/834107 (2012b).
S. Bouzebda and A. Keziou, “A Test of Independence in Some Copula Models”, Math. Methods Statist. 17(2), 123–137 (2008).
S. Bouzebda and A. Keziou, “Estimation and Tests of Independence in Copula Models via Divergences”, C. R. Math. Acad. Sci. Paris 347(11–12), 667–672 (2009).
S. Bouzebda and A. Keziou, “New Estimates and Tests of Independence in Semiparametric Copula Models”, Kybernetika (Prague) 46(1), 178–201 (2010a).
S. Bouzebda and A. Keziou, “A New Test Procedure of Independence in Copula Models via χ 2-Divergence”, Comm. Statist. TheoryMethods 39(1–2), 1–20 (2010b).
S. Bouzebda and A. Keziou, “A Semiparametric Test of Independence in Copula Models for Censored Data”, C. R. Math. Acad. Sci. Paris 348(7–8), 449–453 (2010c).
S. Bouzebda and A. Keziou, “A Semiparametric Maximum Likelihood Ratio Test for the Change Point in Copula Models”, Statist. Methodol. 14, 39–61 (2013).
S. Bouzebda and N. Limnios, “On General Bootstrap of Empirical Estimator of a Semi-Markov Kernel with Applications”, J. Multivariate Anal. 116, 52–62 (2013b).
J. V. Braun and H.-G. Müller, “Statistical Methods for DNA Sequence Segmentation”, Statist. Sci. 13(2), 142–162 (1998).
B. E. Brodsky and B. S. Darkhovsky, Nonparametric Methods in Change-Point Problems, in Mathematics and Its Applications (Kluwer, Dordrecht, 1993), Vol. 243.
J. Chan, L. Horv’ath, and M. Huškov’a, “Darling-Erdős Limit Results for Change-Point Detection in Panel Data”, J. Statist. Plann. Inference. 143(5), 955–970 (2013).
G. Cheng, “A Note on Bootstrap Moment Consistency for Semiparametric M-Estimation”, arXiv:1109.4204 (2011).
J. Chen and A. K. Gupta, Parametric Statistical Change Point Analysis (Birkhäuser, Boston, MA, 2000).
G. Cheng and J. Z. Huang, “Bootstrap Consistency for General Semiparametric M-Estimation”, Ann. Statist. 38(5), 2884–2915 (2010).
X. Chen and Y. Fan, “Pseudo-Likelihood Ratio Tests for Semiparametric Multivariate Copula Model Selection”, Canad. J. Statist. 33(3), 389–414 (2005).
X. Chen and Y. Fan, “Estimation of Copula-Based Semiparametric Time Series Models”, J. Econometrics 130(2), 307–335 (2006).
X. Chen, Y. Fan, D. Pouzo, and Z. Ying, “Estimation and Model Selection of Semiparametric Multivariate Survival Functions under General Censorship”, J. Econometrics 157(1), 129–142 (2010).
U. Cherubini, E. Luciano, and W. Vecchiato, Copula Methods in Finance, in Wiley Finance Series (Wiley, Chichester, 2004).
M. Csörgő and L. Horv’ath, “Invariance Principles for Change Point Problems”, J. Multivariate Anal. 27(1), 151–168 (1988).
M. Csörgő and L. Horváth, Nonparametric Methods for Change Point Problems, in Handbook of Statistics (Elsevier, North-Holland, Amsterdam, 1988), Vol. 7, pp. 403–425.
M. Csörgő and L. Horv’ath, Limit Theorems in Change-Point Analysis, in Wiley Series in Probab. and Statist. (Wiley, Chichester, 1997).
S. Cui and Y. Sun, “Checking for the Gamma Frailty Distribution under the Marginal Proportional Hazards Frailty Model”, Statist. Sinica 14(1), 249–267 (2004).
P. Deheuvels, “La fonction de d’ependance empirique et ses propri’et’es. Un test non param’etrique d’ind’ependance””, Acad. Roy. Belg. Bull.Cl. Sci. (5) 65(6), 274–292 (1979).
P. Deheuvels, “A Multivariate Bahadur-Kiefer Representation for the Empirical Copula Process”, Zap. Nauchn. Sem. S.-Peterburg. Otdel. Mat. Inst. Steklov (POMI) 364, 120–147 (2009).
A. Dias and P. Embrechts, “Change-Point Analysis for Dependence Structures in Finance and Insurance”, in Novos Rumos em Estat’istica, Ed. by C. Carvalho, F. Brilhante, and F. Rosado (Sociedade Portuguesa de Estat’istica, Lisbon, 2002), pp. 69–86.
M. Döring, “Multiple Change-Point Estimation with U-Statistics”, J. Statist. Plann. Inference 140(7), 2003–2017 (2010).
A. Dvoretzky, J. Kiefer, and J. Wolfowitz, “Asymptotic Minimax Character of the Sample Distribution Function and of the Classical Multinomial Estimator”, Ann. Math. Statist. 27, 642–669 (1956).
B. Efron, “Bootstrap Methods: Another Look at the Jackknife”, Ann. Statist. 7(1), 1–26 (1979).
C. M. Erasmus and F. Lombard, “Asymptotic Distributions of Quadratic Forms Occurring in Change-Point Problems”, Canad. J. Statist. 16(3), 259–268 (1988).
D. Ferger, “On the Power of Nonparametric Changepoint-Tests”, Metrika 41(5), 277–292 (1994).
J. P. Fine, J. Yan, and M. R. Kosorok, “Temporal Process Regression”, Biometrika 91(3), 683–703 (2004).
E.W. Frees and E. A. Valdez, “Understanding Relationships Using Copulas”, North Amer.Actuar. J. 2(1), 1–25 (1998).
Y.-X. Fu and R. N. Curnow, “Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Multiple Change Points”, Biometrika 77(3), 563–573 (1990).
L. A. Gardner, Jr., “On Detecting Changes in the Mean of Normal Variates”, Ann. Math. Statist. 40, 116–126 (1969).
C. Genest, K. Ghoudi, and L.-P. Rivest, “A Semiparametric Estimation Procedure of Dependence Parameters in Multivariate Families of Distributions”, Biometrika 82(3), 543–552 (1995).
E. Gombay, “The Weighted Sequential Likelihood Ratio”, Canad. J. Statist. 24(2), 229–239 (1996).
E. Gombay, “The Likelihood Ratio under Noncontiguous Alternatives”, Canad. J. Statist. 25(3), 417–423 (1997).
E. Gombay and L. Horv’ath, “An Application of the Maximum Likelihood Test to the Change-Point Problem”, Stochastic Process. Appl. 50(1), 161–171 (1994).
D. Gu’egan and J. Zhang, “Change Analysis of a Dynamic Copula for Measuring Dependence in Multivariate Financial Data”, Quant. Finance, 10(4), 421–430 (2010).
H. He and T. A. Severini, “Asymptotic Properties of Maximum Likelihood Estimators in Models with Multiple Change Points”, Bernoulli 16(3), 759–779 (2010).
L. Horv’ath and M. Huškov’a, “Testing for Changes Using Permutations of U-Statistics”, J. Statist. Plann. Inference 128(2), 351–371 (2005).
L. Horv’ath and M. Huškov’a, “Change-Point Detection in Panel Data”, J. Time SeriesAnal. 33(4), 631–648 (2012).
H. Joe, “Parametric Families of Multivariate Distributions with Given Margins”, J. Multivariate Anal. 46(2), 262–282 (1993).
H. Joe, Multivariate Models and Dependence Concepts, in Monographs on Statistics and Applied Probability (Chapman & Hall, London, 1997), Vol. 73.
Copula Theory and Its Applications, Ed. by P. Jaworski, F. Durante, W. Härdle, and T. Rychlik, in Lecture Notes in Statistics-Proceedings (Springer, Heidelberg, 2010), Vol 198.
O. Kallenberg, Foundations of Modern Probability, in Probability and its Applications (New York) (Springer, New York, 2002), 2nd ed.
G. Kimeldorf and A. Sampson, “One-Parameter Families of Bivariate Distributions with Fixed Marginals”, Comm. Statist. 4, 293–301 (1975a).
G. Kimeldorf and A. Sampson, “Uniform Representations of Bivariate Distributions”, Comm. Statist. 4(7), 617–627 (1975b).
I. Kojadinovic, J. Yan, and M. Holmes, “Fast Large-Sample Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Copulas”, Statist. Sinica 21, 841–871 (2011).
M. R. Kosorok, Introduction to Empirical Processes and Semiparametric Inference, in Springer Series in Statist. (Springer, New York, 2008).
K.-Y. Liang and S. G. Self, “On the Asymptotic Behaviour of the Pseudolikelihood Ratio Test Statistic”, J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B 58(4), 785–796 (1996).
D. Y. Lin, T. R. Fleming, and L. J. Wei, “Confidence Bands for Survival Curves under the Proportional Hazards Model”, Biometrika 81(1), 73–81 (1994).
A. Y. Lo, “A Bayesian Method for Weighted Sampling”, Ann. Statist. 21(4), 2138–2148 (1993).
D. M. Mason and M. A. Newton, “A Rank Statistics Approach to the Consistency of a General Bootstrap”, Ann. Statist. 20(3), 1611–1624 (1992).
A. J. McNeil, R. Frey, and P. Embrechts, Quantitative Risk Management. Concepts, Techniques and Tools, in Princeton Series in Finance (Princeton Univ. Press, Princeton, NJ, 2005).
O. Na, J. Lee, and S. Lee, “Change Point Detection in Copula ARMA-GARCH Models”, J. Time Series Anal. 33(4), 554–569 (2012).
R. B. Nelsen, An Introduction to Copulas. in Springer Series in Statist. (Springer, New York, 2006), 2nd ed.
D. Oakes, “Multivariate Survival Distributions”, J. Nonparam. Statist. 3(3–4), 343–354 (1994).
M. Orasch, “Using U-Statistics Based Processes to Detect Multiple Change-Points”, in Fields Inst. Commun., Vol. 44: Asymptotic Methods in Stochastics (Amer. Math. Soc., Providence, RI, 2004), pp. 315–334.
J. Prætgaard and J. A. Wellner, “Exchangeably Weighted Bootstraps of the General Empirical Process”, Ann. Probab. 21(4), 2053–2086 (1993).
E. S. Page, “Continuous Inspection Schemes”, Biometrika 41, 100–115 (1954).
E. S. Page, “A test for a Change in a Parameter Occurring at an Unknown Point”, Biometrika 42, 523–527 (1955).
M. Pauly, “Consistency of the Subsample Bootstrap Empirical Process”, Statistics 46(5), 621–626 (2012).
B. R’emillard and O. Scaillet, “Testing for Equality between Two Copulas”, J. Multivariate Anal. 100(3), 377–386 (2009).
L. Rüschendorf, “Asymptotic Distributions of Multivariate Rank Order Statistics”, Ann. Statist. 4(5), 912–923 (1976).
L. Rüschendorf, “On the Distributional Transform, Sklar’s Theorem, and the Empirical Copula Process”, J. Statist. Plann. Inference 139(11), 3921–3927 (2009).
F.H Ruymgaart, “Asymptotic Normality of Nonparametric Tests for Independence”, Ann. Statist. 2, 892–910 (1974).
F. H. Ruymgaart, G. R. Shorack, and W. R. van Zwet, “Asymptotic Normality of Nonparametric Tests for Independence”, Ann. Math. Statist. 43, 1122–1135 (1972).
O. Scaillet, “A Kolmogorov-Smirnov Type Test for Positive Quadrant Dependence”, Canad. J. Statist. 33(3), 415–427 (2005).
M. J. Schervish, Theory of Statistics, in Springer Series in Statist. (Springer, New York, 1995).
S. G. Self and K.-Y. Liang, “Asymptotic Properties of Maximum Likelihood Estimators and Likelihood Ratio Tests under Nonstandard Conditions”, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 82(398), 605–610 (1987).
J. Shao and D. S. Tu, The Jackknife and Bootstrap, in Springer Series in Statist. (Springer, New York, 1995).
J.H. Shih and T. A. Louis, “Inferences on the Association Parameter in Copula Models for Bivariate Survival Data”, Biometrics 51(4), 1384–1399 (1995).
A. Sklar, Fonctions de r’epartition á n dimensions et leurs marges. Publ. Inst. Statist. Univ. Paris 8, 229–231 (1959).
H. Tsukahara, “Semiparametric Estimation in Copula Models”, Canad. J. Statist. 33(3), 357–375 (2005).
L. Y. Vostrikova, “Detection of “Discordance” of a Wiener Process”, Teor. Veroyatnost. i Primenen. 26(2), 362–368 (1981).
W. Wang and A. A. Ding, “On Assessing the Association for Bivariate Current Status Data”, Biometrika 87(4), 879–893 (2000).
X. Wang, C. van Eeden, and J. V. Zidek, “A symptotic Properties of Maximum Weighted Likelihood Estimators”, J. Statist. Plann. Inference 119(1), 37–54 (2004).
A. W. van der Vaart and J. A. Wellner,Weak Convergence and Empirical Processes, with Applications to Statistics, in Springer Series in Statist. (Springer, New York, 1996).
J. A. Wellner and Y. Zhan, Bootstrapping Z-Estimators, Techn. Report No. 308 (Univ. Washington, Seattle, July 1996).
C. F. J. Wu, On the Asymptotic Property of the Jackknife Histogram, Techn. report (Dept. of Statistics, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, 1987).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
About this article
Cite this article
Bouzebda, S. Asymptotic properties of pseudo maximum likelihood estimators and test in semi-parametric copula models with multiple change points. Math. Meth. Stat. 23, 38–65 (2014). https://doi.org/10.3103/S1066530714010037
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S1066530714010037
Keywords
- dependence function
- multivariate rank statistics
- semiparametric inference
- multiple change-points
- Brownian bridge
- pseudo observations
- multiplier central limit theorem
- exchangeable bootstrap