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Optimal prediction of the peak of the next 11-year activity cycle and of the peaks of several succeeding cycles on the basis of long-term variations in the solar radius or solar constant

Abstract

We propose a new technique for the optimal prediction of the peak of the next 11-year activity cycle prior to the cycle beginning and of the peaks of several succeeding cycles on the basis of long-term variations in the solar radius or solar constant. The method is based on the already established fact that the long-term cyclic variations of the activity, radius, and solar constant are correlated in both phase and amplitude, since they are caused by some common processes in the Sun. The peak of the succeeding cycle 24 is expected to have the height W max = 70 ± 10 (in units of relative sunspot number). The subsequent cycles 25 and 26, which will be formed during the descent of the current secular cycle, will have still lower peaks with the heights W max = 50 ± 15 and W max = 35 ± 20.

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Original Russian Text © Kh.I. Abdusamatov, 2007, published in Kinematika i Fizika Nebesnykh Tel, 2007, Vol. 23, No. 3, pp. 141–147.

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Abdusamatov, K.I. Optimal prediction of the peak of the next 11-year activity cycle and of the peaks of several succeeding cycles on the basis of long-term variations in the solar radius or solar constant. Kinemat. Phys. Celest. Bodies 23, 97–100 (2007). https://doi.org/10.3103/S0884591307030026

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S0884591307030026

PACS numbers

  • 96.90.+c