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Russian Meteorology and Hydrology

, Volume 43, Issue 8, pp 539–543 | Cite as

To the Problem of Verification of Methods for Short-range Forecasting of Hydrological Parameters

  • A. A. Sokolov
  • A. N. Bugaets
Article
  • 3 Downloads

Abstract

The main principles of the existing methodology for the verification of forecasting techniques in the absence of the sample volume impact on the accuracy of determination of statistical parameters are considered. A method is proposed for the verification, comparison, and selection of forecasting methods. The method is based on the persistence of the predicted phenomenon and allows creating optimum forecast schemes with account of priority of expected parameters of accuracy. It is anticipated that the obtained results will find application in the practice of hydrological forecasting.

Keywords

Short-range hydrological forecasts method verification persistence efficiency accuracy 

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Copyright information

© Allerton Press, Inc. 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Primorye Administration for Hydrometeorology and Environmental MonitoringVladivostokRussia
  2. 2.Pacific Institute of Geography, Far Eastern BranchRussian Academy of SciencesVladivostokRussia
  3. 3.Far Eastern Regional Hydrometeorological Research InstituteVladivostokRussia

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