Russian Meteorology and Hydrology

, Volume 43, Issue 8, pp 539–543 | Cite as

To the Problem of Verification of Methods for Short-range Forecasting of Hydrological Parameters

  • A. A. SokolovEmail author
  • A. N. Bugaets


The main principles of the existing methodology for the verification of forecasting techniques in the absence of the sample volume impact on the accuracy of determination of statistical parameters are considered. A method is proposed for the verification, comparison, and selection of forecasting methods. The method is based on the persistence of the predicted phenomenon and allows creating optimum forecast schemes with account of priority of expected parameters of accuracy. It is anticipated that the obtained results will find application in the practice of hydrological forecasting.


Short-range hydrological forecasts method verification persistence efficiency accuracy 


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. 1.
    B. A. Apollov, G. P. Kalinin, and V. D. Komarov, Course of Hydrological Forecasts (Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 1974) [in Russian].Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    A. N. Befani and G. P. Kalinin, Exercises and Methodological In structions for Hydrological Forecasting (Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 1965) [in Russian].Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    S. V. Borshch and A. V. Khristoforov, “Verification of River Run off Fore casts,” Trudy Gidromettsentra Rossii, No. 355 (2015) [in Russian].Google Scholar
  4. 4.
    A. N. Bugaets, L. V. Gonchukov, O. V. Sokolov, B. I. Gartsman, and S. M. Krasnopeev, “Automatic Information System for Hydrological Monitoring and Data Management,” Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 3 (2017) [in Russian].Google Scholar
  5. 5.
    Yu. B. Vinogradov and T. A. Vinogradova, Applied Hydrology (SPbGLTU, St. Petersburg, 2014) [in Russian].Google Scholar
  6. 6.
    Yu. M. Georgievskii and S. V. Shanochkin, Hydrological Forecasting (RGGMU, St. Petersburg, 2007) [in Russian].Google Scholar
  7. 7.
    Manual for the Forecasting Service, Section 3: Hydrological Forecasting Service, Part 1: Forecasts of Inland Water Regime (Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 1952) [in Russian].Google Scholar
  8. 8.
    E. G. Popov, Fundamentals of Hydrological Forecasting (Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 1968) [in Russian].Google Scholar
  9. 9.
    Guide to Hydrological Practices. Data Acquisition and Processing, Analysis, Forecasting, and Other Applications, WMO-No. 168 (1994) [in Russian].Google Scholar
  10. 10.
    A. V. Frolov, V. V. Asmus, S. V. Borshch, R. M. Vil’fand, I. I. Zhabina, V. V. Zatyagalova, V. A. Krovotyntsev, O. I. Kudryavtseva, E. A. Leont’eva, Yu. A. Simonov, and Yu. A. Stepanov, “GIS-Amur System of Flood Monitoring, Forecasting, and Early Warning,” Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 3 (2016) [Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., No. 3, 41 (2016)].Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Allerton Press, Inc. 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Primorye Administration for Hydrometeorology and Environmental MonitoringVladivostokRussia
  2. 2.Pacific Institute of Geography, Far Eastern BranchRussian Academy of SciencesVladivostokRussia
  3. 3.Far Eastern Regional Hydrometeorological Research InstituteVladivostokRussia

Personalised recommendations