Russian Meteorology and Hydrology

, Volume 43, Issue 6, pp 347–356 | Cite as

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Economic Development of the Russian Arctic in the 21st Century

  • E. I. Khlebnikova
  • V. M. Kattsov
  • A. A. Pikaleva
  • I. M. Shkolnik


The problem of increasing the informativeness of climate projections in the Russian Arctic in order to meet the current economy needs is considered. The detailed estimates are presented of changes for the most important specialized indicators of the thermal and moisture regimes which characterize climatic impacts on the economic development of the Russian Arctic in the 21st century. The calculations are based on the data of numerical experiments with the regional climate model which were conducted for the Arctic region in the framework of the international CORDEX project. The high resolution of the model (50 km) and the consideration of mesoscale factors helped to detect significant spatial differences in the estimates of changes in the analyzed parameters which should be taken into account when adapting to climate change at the regional level.


Arctic global warming climatic impacts regional models 


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. 1.
    P. Ya. Baklanov, A. V. Moshkov, and M. T. Romanov, “Geographic and Geopolitical Factors and Directions of the Long–term Development of the Arctic Zone of Russia,” Vestnik DVO RAN, No. 2 (2015) [in Russian].Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    Second Roshydromet Assessment Report on the Climate Change and Its Consequences in Russian Federation (Roshydromet, Moscow, 2014) [in Russian],
  3. 3.
    A. I. Danilov, G. V. Alekseev, A. V. Klepikov, D. V. Kovalevskii, and V. I. Peresypkin, “Marine Activities in the Arctic,” in Second Roshydromet Assessment Report on the Climate Change andIts Consequences in Russian Federation (Roshydromet, Moscow, 2014) [in Russian]; Scholar
  4. 4.
    A. V. Eliseev and V. A. Semenov, “Arctic Climate Changes in the 21st Century: Ensemble Model Estimates Accounting for Realism in Present–day Climate Simulation,” Dokl. Akad. Nauk, No. 2, 471 (2016) [Dokl. Earth Sci., No. 1, 471 (2016)].Google Scholar
  5. 5.
    S. I. Zabolotnik, “Severity of Climate Conditions in Russia,” Geografiya i Prirodnye Resursy, No. 3 (2010) [in Russian].Google Scholar
  6. 6.
    V. M. Kattsov and T. V. Pavlova, “The Arctic in the Context ofthe Grand Challenges ofClimate Science,” Trudy GGO, No. 579 (2015) [in Russian].Google Scholar
  7. 7.
    V. M. Kattsov and B. N. Porfir'ev, “Climate Changes in the Arctic: Impact on Environment and Economy,” Arktika: Ekologiya i Ekonomika, No. 2 (2012) [in Russian].Google Scholar
  8. 8.
    V. M. Kattsov, I. M. Shkolnik, S. V. Efimov, A. V. Konstantinov, V. N. Pavlova, T. V. Pavlova, E. I. Khlebnikova, A. A. Pikaleva, A. V. Baidin, and V. A. Borisenko, “Development of the Technology for Probability Forecasting of Regional Climate in Russia and Construction of Scenario Forecasts of Climate Change Impacts on Economic Sectors. Part 1: Problem Statement and Numerical Experiments,” Trudy GGO, No. 583 (2016) [in Russian].Google Scholar
  9. 9.
    E. D. Nadyozhina, L. R. Orlenko, and A. A. Pikaleva, “Estimates of Permafrost Soil Thermal State Evolution on the Coast of Arctic Seas Using the System of Models with Various Spatial Reso lution,” Trudy GGO, No. 569 (2013) [in Russian].Google Scholar
  10. 10.
    T. V. Pavlova, V. M. Kattsov, A. A. Pikaleva, and V. A. Govorkova, “Snow Cover and Permafrost in CMIP5 Models: Estimates of Current State and Its Possible Changes in the 21st Century,” Trudy GGO, No. 569 (2013) [in Russian].Google Scholar
  11. 11.
    A. A. Pikaleva, E. D. Nadyozhina, A. V. Sternzat, V. A. Borisenko, and I. M. Shkolnik, “Studying the Permafrost Evolution in Russia Using the Models for Atmospheric Boundary Layer and Soil Heat Transfer,” Trudy GGO, No. 581 (2016) [in Russian].Google Scholar
  12. 12.
    B. N. Porfir'ev and N. E. Terent'ev, “Ecological and Climatic Risks of Socioeconomic Development of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation,” Ekologicheskii Vestnik Rossii, No. 1 (2016) [in Russian].Google Scholar
  13. 13.
    B. N. Porfir'ev and E. I. Khlebnikova, “Construction under Conditions of Arctic Climate Change: Risks and Possibilities of Their Reduction,” Ekonomika Stroitel'stva, No. 6 (2015) [in Russian].Google Scholar
  14. 14.
    Set of Rules SP 20.13330.2011. Loads and Impacts. Actualized Vers ion of Cons true tion Norms and Rules 2.01.07–85 (Minregion Rossii, Moscow, 2011) [in Russian].Google Scholar
  15. 15.
    Set of Rules SP 131.13330.2012. Construction Climatology. Actualized Version of Construction Norms and Rules 23–01–99 (Minregion Rossii, Moscow, 2012) [in Russian].Google Scholar
  16. 16.
    P. V. Sporyshev, V. M. Kattsov, and V. A. Govorkova, “Arctic Temperature Evolution: Reliability of Model Simulation and Short–term Probability Forecast,” Trudy GGO, No. 583 (2016) [in Russian].Google Scholar
  17. 17.
    E. I. Khlebnikova and T. A. Datsyuk, “Construction, Land Transport, Fuel and Energy Sector,” in Second Roshydromet Assessment Report on the Climate Change and Its Consequences in Russian Federation (Roshydromet, Moscow, 2014) [in Russian], Scholar
  18. 18.
    E. I. Khlebnikova and I. A. Sall', “Climatic Impacts on Coastal Infrastrucfure in Russia in the 21st Century,” Trudy GGO, No. 567 (2012) [in Russian].Google Scholar
  19. 19.
    E. I. Khlebnikova and I. A. Sall', “Climatic Factors of Energy Consumption in Russia: Trends, Variability, Uncertainty of Estimates,” Trudy GGO, No. 569 (2013) [in Russian].Google Scholar
  20. 20.
    E. I. Khlebnikova, I. A. Sall', and I. M. Shkolnik, “Regional Climate Changes as the Factors of Impact on the Objects of Construction and Infrastructure,” Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 12 (2012) [Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., No. 11–12, 37 (2012)].Google Scholar
  21. 21.
    I. M. Shkolnik, V. P. Meleshko, S. V. Efimov, and E. N. Stafeeva, “Changes in Climate Extremes on the Territory of Siberia by the Middle of the 21st Century: An Ensemble Forecast Based on the MGO Regional Climate Model,” Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 2 (2012) [Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., No. 2, 37 (2012)].Google Scholar
  22. 22.
    Encyclopedia of Climate Resources of the Russian Federation (Gidrometeoizdat, St. Petersburg, 2005) [in Russian].Google Scholar
  23. 23.
    J. H. Christensen, E. Kjellstrom, F. Giorgi, G. Lenderink, and M. Rummukainen, “Weight Assignment in Regional Climate Models,” Clim. Res., No. 2–3, 44 (2010).Google Scholar
  24. 24.
    G. Flato, J. Marotzke, B. Abiodun, P. Braconnot, S. C. Chou, W. Collins, P. Cox, F. Driouech, S. Emori, V. Eyring, C. Forest, P. Gleckler, E. Guilyardi, C. Jakob, V. Kattsov, C. Reason, and M. Rummukainen, “Evaluation of Climate Models,” in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Ed. by T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.–K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Doschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, and P. M. Midgley (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2013).Google Scholar
  25. 25.
    F. Giorgi and W. J. Gutowski, “Regional Dynamical Downscaling and the CORDEX Initiative,” Ann. Rev. Environ. Resour., 40 (2015).Google Scholar
  26. 26.
    R. Laprise, “Regional Climate Modeling,” J. Comput. Phys., No. 7, 227 (2008).Google Scholar
  27. 27.
    M. Rummukainen, “Added Value in Regional Climate Modeling,” Willey Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 7 (2016).Google Scholar
  28. 28.
    I. M. Shkolnik and S. V. Efimov, “Cyclonic Activity in High Latitudes as Simulated by a Regional Atmospheric Climate Model: Added Value and Uncertainties,” Environ. Res. Lett., 8 (2013).Google Scholar
  29. 29.
    Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost. Summary for Policy–makers (Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), Oslo, Norway, 2017).Google Scholar
  30. 30.
    K. E. Taylor, R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, “An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design,” Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 93 (2012).Google Scholar
  31. 31.
    D. P. van Vuuren, J. A. Edmonds, M. Kainuma, K. Riahi, A. Thomson, K. Hibbard, G. C. Hurtt, T. Kram, V. Krey, J.–F. Lamarque, T. Masui, M. Meinshausen, N. Nakicenovic, S. J. Smith, and S. K. Rose, “The Representative Concentration Pathways: An Overview,” Clim. Change, 109 (2011).Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Allerton Press, Inc. 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  • E. I. Khlebnikova
    • 1
  • V. M. Kattsov
    • 1
  • A. A. Pikaleva
    • 1
  • I. M. Shkolnik
    • 1
  1. 1.Voeikov Main Geophysical ObservatorySt. PetersburgRussia

Personalised recommendations