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Russian Meteorology and Hydrology

, Volume 40, Issue 4, pp 231–241 | Cite as

Probabilistic representation of long-range weather forecasts worked out using the synoptic methods

  • V. Yu. Tsepelev
  • V. M. Khan
Article

Abstract

Demonstrated is the possibility of using the probabilistic approach to synoptic forecasts worked out using the Vangengeim-Girs and Mul’tanovskii-Pagava methods. The approach is realized by analogy with the probabilistic interpretation of ensemble hydrodynamic forecasts based on the Dolgosrochnik-Sinoptik software package. Considered are the concrete examples of the traditional representation of the results of the synoptic forecast of air temperature based on the synoptic methods as well as the variants of the same forecasts presented in terms of probability. The conclusion is made that the application of the probabilistic approach to synoptic forecasts increases their informativeness and extend the visualization potential.

Keywords

Synoptic long-range forecasts probabilistic approach group analog homolog forecast accuracy visualization 

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Copyright information

© Allerton Press, Inc. 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Northwestern Federal District Department of Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental MonitoringSt. PetersburgRussia
  2. 2.Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian FederationMoscowRussia

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